Transcript Slide 1

MEGAMORPHOSIS II - MUMBAI
MAR 2011
CORE ISSUES & FUTURE GROWTH
VISION & CONCEPT OPTIONS
THE REGIONAL CONCEPT PLAN
THE REGIONAL CONCEPT PLAN
PROJECT MILESTONE
Current Project Status
Mar 2010
Apr 2010
Jun 2010
Phase 0
Investigation
Phase 1
Sep 2010
Planning
Strategy &
Structure
Development
Nov 2010
Phase 2
Draft
Regional Plan
Apr 2011
Phase 3
Final Regional
Plan
Jun 2011
Phase 4
Local Plan &
Urban Design
Jul 2011
Phase 5
Steering Committee / Stakeholders Meetings
Implementation
Strategy
Phase 6
Draft/ Final Report Submission
Project Duration of 66 weeks
From March 2010 to July 2011
Final
Submission
The exciting Mumbai
•
Vibrancy & Density
•
Efficient but not sufficient public transport
•
Magnificent but untapped heritage
•
Slums & super luxury properties
•
National Park, mangroves & polluted air
•
Scenic waterfront & polluted water
•
Resilient & Innovative
EXPANDING ECONOMY & POPULATION
Growth Rate & Centre:
• CAGR-basis projection => GDP growth taken for entire block of years up to 2052
• Anticipated faster growth rate in RoMMR than GM
• Increasing contribution to MMR GDP from RoMMR with more new developments
• GDP per capita rising to Rs 1mil by 2052
Scenarios
GDP Growth Rate
GM to MMR Ratio
MMR
GM
RoMMR
2008
2032
2052
Moderated
Case
7%
6.3%
7.7%
0.6
0.5
0.45
Base Case
7.4%
7%
7.9%
0.6
0.55
0.5
Stretched
Case
9%
8%
10%
0.6
0.45
0.4
Overall Demographic Profile:
• Expanding population from 25mil in
2008 to between 38 mil and 44 mil by
2052
• Labour market rising to between 20.4
mil and 23.2 mil
RISING DEMAND FOR WORK SPACES
Sector Composition:
Projected Sectoral
Composition of
MMR’s GDP
• Moving towards a more services led
economy with high emphasis on skilled
human capital
=> mirrored high rate of growth of 15% over
past 7 years in the Business Services
=> consistent with Government’s initiatives
to grow the IT/ITES, retail, financial services
71%
75%
75.5%
27%
24.5%
24.3%
2%
0.5%
0.2%
2008
Labour Market Profile:
• Significant increase in tertiary
employment by more than 3 times
• Secondary Sector increase by double
• Informal Sector reducing in size but still
remaining
• Pointing to a consistent and high
demand for commercial office and
retail spaces in future
2032
2052
SOURCE: MTSU/ McKinsey
MORE AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEEDED
HOUSEHOLD INCOME PER
ANNUM, INR
Less than 90,000
90,000 - 200,000
200,000 - 500,000
500,000 - 1,000,000
1,000,000 - 1,500,000
1,500,000 - 2,500,000
Above 2,500,000
Total households
2010
0.7
2.53
2.79
0.12
0.03
0.06
0.03
6.34
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS IN MILLIONS
2020
2032
0.41
0.06
1.61
0.51
4.35
6.22
1.34
2.8
0.21
0.41
0.13
0.21
0.06
0.1
8.11
10.36
2052
0
0.04
0.76
6.62
4.44
2.22
0.74
14.81
2010
2020
2052
REGIONS
Prevailing
rates
South Mumbai
Cluster 1 Central Mumbai
Western Mumbai
East Mumbai & Thane
Cluster 2
Navi Mumbai
Vasai-Virar
Cluster 3
Mira Bhayandar
Kalyan
Cluster 4 Karjat-Khopoli
Pen-Alibaug
65,000
25,000
35,000
10,000
8,500
3,200
4,500
3,400
1,700
1,500
Growth
Scenario
High
High
High
High
2032
Projected
rates
Growth
Scenario
201,500
77,500 Moderate
108,500
31,000
High
26,350
9,920
High
13,950
10,540
5,270 High
4,650
Projected
rates
Growth
Scenario
566,215
217,775
Low
304,885
120,900
High
102,765
38,688
Moderate
54,405
41,106
20,553 Moderate
18,135
Note: All rates are in Rs/ sq. ft. Rise in property rates is based on a high growth assumption for MMR
Projected
rates
1,024,849
394,173
551,842
1,160,640
986,544
216,653
304,668
230,194
115,097
101,556
NEED FOR COMPREHENSIVE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
• Public transport mode remains high at
78%
• Total trips in future will be almost 1.7
times to 2 times of the trip volume
recorded in 2005
• Hence, much more comprehensive
road & rail networks are expected
• Domestic air travel demand could
increase to 35mil passengers
PRESSING IMPROVEMENT TO INFRASTRUCTURE
2032
2052
Estimated Water Demand (Basic hygiene)
13,140 MLD
15,523 MLD
Estimated Water Demand (Best-in-class)
15,372 MLD
19,308 MLD
5,049 MLD
(Commercial)
10,323 MLD
(Residential)
Existing & Planned Water Supply
7,241 MLD
(Commercial)
12,068 MLD
(Residential)
9,902 MLD (by 2021)
1,515 MLD
(30% of commercial demand)
2,896 MLD
(40% of commercial demand)
Rainwater harvesting & gray water reuse
769 MLD
(5% of overall demand)
1,545 MLD
(8% of overall demand)
Reduction in demand through water-saving
device
1,537 MLD
(10% of overall demand)
2,317 MLD
(12% of overall demand)
Reduction in demand through active leakage
control & metering in the supply system
1,537 MLD
(10% of overall demand)
1,931 MLD
(10% of overall demand)
112 MLD
(1.1% of ext’g & planned supply)
605 MLD
(6.1% of ext’g & planned supply)
1 extra Vihar
Lake
5.5 times of
Vihar Lake
Water recycling for non-potable use
Additional Water Supply Required
PRESSING IMPROVEMENT TO INFRASTRUCTURE
Sewerage
Solid Waste
OVERALL BROAD LAND AREA REQUIREMENTS
Existing
2032
2052
Remarks
Forest/wetland &
water body
31%
1,350 sqkm
31%
31%
Forest , wetland and water body
to be retained
Agriculture/ waste
/scrubland
54%
2,350 sqkm
39%
29%
Urbanized area (%)
Area
Density (ppl/sqkm)
15%
650 sqkm
40,000
<30%
1300 sqkm
27,000
<40%
1734 sqkm
23,000
Housing & facilities
40%
520 sqkm
40%
694 sqkm
Industries, Logistics,
Commercial & mix
use space
20%
260 sqkm
20%
346 sqkm
European cities: 30%
US cities: 10%
Singapore : 19% (future goal)
Parkland (main
recreational parks)
10%
130 sqkm
12%
208 sqkm
Singapore : 20% (future goal)
Infra/
utilities
25%
325 sqkm
23%
399 sqkm
European cities: 18 %
US cities: 36 %
Singapore :22% (future goal)
Special use (military
& other special
uses)
5%
65 sqkm
5%
87 sqkm
Shanghai City : 24,000
EVOLVING VISIONS
Vision Mumbai
by Bombay First and
McKinsey
Transforming Mumbai into
a World Class City,
by Chief Ministers’ Task
Force, GoM
Business Plan for MMR
by MMRDA and LEA
Associates
Date of Publication: Sept ‘03
Region: Greater Mumbai
Projection Year: 2013
Date of Publication: Feb ‘04
Region: Greater Mumbai
Projection Year: 2013
Date of Publication: Aug ‘07
Region: MMR
Projection Year: 2032
Transforming Mumbai into a
world class city
Transforming Mumbai into a
world class city with a
vibrant economy and
globally comparable quality
of life for its citizens
Transforming MMR into a
world class metropolis with
a vibrant economy and
globally comparable quality
of life for all its citizens
VISION FOR MMR 2032
MMR a “World Class Metropolis”
VISION FOR MMR 2052
MMR a “Global City”
VISION FOR MMR 2032
VISION FOR MMR 2052
Transforming MMR into a
“World Class Metropolis”
with a vibrant economy, a
globally comparable quality
of life and a healthy and
attractive environment
for all its residents
To promote MMR as a
“Global City” which
capitalizes on its unique
identity; and is an
international business hub,
a leading technological
innovator, a melting pot of
local and cosmopolitan
cultures and a centre of
excellence for urban
environmental
management.
* The Concept Plan for Mumbai Metropolitan Region is
Voluminous.
For Further Information Contact
Bombay First
Email: [email protected]
Contact: 022 22810070/71