Transcript Document

Attitudes toward trade and the global economy
March 16, 2007
Lake Research Partners
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 [email protected]
Context
Americans are economically anxious and
generally pessimistic about the economy in the
future.
Lake Research Partners
Only the war concerns more
Americans than economic
issues do.
What do you think is the number one problem facing the country today -- that is, what is the
problem that you and your family are most concerned about?
28%
War
14%
Economic issues
Terrorism/ national defense
6%
Immigration
6%
10%
Social/ moral issues
8%
Health care cost/ insurance
Education/ Children's issues
2%
President Bush
4%
18%
Other
Unsure/ Refused
0%
3
5%
10%
LRP/Tarrance Group. January 8-11, 2007. N=1,000 Registered Likely Voters.
20%
30%
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More than half of adults believe the
economy is getting worse
Do you think the national economy is getting better, staying the same
or getting worse?
1%
Getting Better
22%
Staying the Same
Getting Worse
Don't Know/
Refused
57%
4
20%
American Research Group. “The
Economy.” Conducted 2/18-21/07;
surveyed 1,100 adults; margin of
error +/-3% (release, 2/22).
Lake Research Partners
Just 29% of Americans are hopeful
about the future of the economy.
A year from now, do you expect the national economy to be better than
it is today, the same as it is today or worse than it is today?
4%
Better than today
Same as today
29%
Don't Know/
Refused
44%
23%
5
Worse than today
American Research Group. “The
Economy.” Conducted 2/18-21/07;
surveyed 1,100 adults; margin of error
+/-3% (release, 2/22).
Lake Research Partners
Parents are afraid that their children
will be worse off economically than
they are.
Thinking about the next generation of Americans who are children today, the way
things are going, do you think economically they will be better off, worse off, or
about the same as the generation of adults who are working today?
60%
51%
50%
40%
27%
30%
18%
20%
10%
0%
Better off
6
About the same
LRP Conducted “The American Dream Survey” on behalf of Change to Win
among 800 non-supervisory workers August 14-20, 2006. Sampling error is +/3.5% for the full sample, higher among split sampled questions.
Worse off
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Wages not keeping up with cost of
living is the top economic concern,
followed by rising gas prices and
health care costs.
Thinking specifically about the economy, what two things are you personally worried
about the most? Are they…
Wages not keeping up with cost of living
34%
Rising gas prices
29%
Rising health care costs
27%
Having to work more to keep up with cost
of living
16%
Losing your job
14%
A secure retirement
Expenses like child care, education, or
college tuition
11%
Paying taxes
11%
Paying off debt
7
13%
LRP Conducted “The American Dream Survey” on behalf of Change to Win
among 800 non-supervisory workers August 14-20, 2006. Sampling error is +/3.5% for the full sample, higher among split sampled questions.
8%
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A majority of workers now believe
they will retire at an older age than
they expected.
Do you think that you will retire younger, the same age or older than you estimated 5 years ago?
55%
60%
50%
40%
28%
LRP Conducted “The
American Dream
Survey” on behalf of
Change to Win among
800 non-supervisory
workers August 14-20,
2006. Sampling error is
+/- 3.5% for the full
sample, higher among
split sampled questions.
30%
20%
10%
10%
0%
Younger
8
Same Age
Older
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Health care costs, losing health care
coverage, not having enough money for
retirement, and not being able to keep up
with bills are the top immediate concerns
for the working middle class today.
Now I am going to read you a list of different concerns that working people might have in America
today. For each one, even if it is not a problem right now, please tell me how much of a concern it
is for you – a very serious concern, a serious concern, a minor concern, or not a concern at all.
MINOR/NOT AT ALL
Not being able to afford health care when you
and your family need it
-21%
Losing your health care benefits
-25%
Not having enough money for retirement
Not being able to keep up with bills
Losing my job and not being able to find one
with same pay and benefits
Losing your pension benefits
Having your standard of living slip further
9
-22%
-30%
-33%
-35%
-31%
-11%
-15%
-8%
-14%
-18%
-20%
-13%
Losing your home or never owning a home
-39%
-20%
Not having enough time to spend with your
family
-36%
-19%
LRP Conducted “The American Dream Survey” on behalf of Change to Win
among 800 non-supervisory workers August 14-20, 2006. Sampling error is +/3.5% for the full sample, higher among split sampled questions.
VERY/SERIOUS
51%
77%
72%
45%
77%
42%
41%
38%
37%
36%
36%
34%
69%
65%
59%
68%
59%
62%
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• Three out of ten workers have taken on
debt to pay for necessities like food,
utility costs, and gasoline.*
• In June, 53% of Americans said they
personally know someone who has
been laid off in the last six months. **
10
* American Dream survey of 800 workers, 8-06
** Gallup, June 1-4, 2006: 1,002 adults
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Workers overwhelmingly believe
that working families are falling
behind.
Now I am going to read you some statements and I want you to tell me if you agree or disagree
with each statement.: No matter what you hear about the economy, working families are falling
behind.
81% Agree
25%
56%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
81%
100%
•Darker colors indicate higher intensity
11
LRP Conducted “The American Dream Survey” on behalf of Change to Win
among 800 non-supervisory workers August 14-20, 2006. Sampling error is +/3.5% for the full sample, higher among split sampled questions.
Lake Research Partners
• Daniel Yankelovich wrote in the May/June
2006 issue of Foreign Affairs that outsourcing
is reaching a tipping point as an issue for the
American public.*
• Eighty-seven percent of voters are concerned
about outsourcing (52% worry a lot), and 81%
of voters gave the government a C, D, or F in
its handling of the issue.
12
*“The Tipping Points,” by Daniel Yankelovich, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2006
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•This negativity about the economy is greatest
among blue collar voters and independents—
both of whom have been shifting away from
Democrats.
•Concerns are greater in “red” states than in
blue states.
•Speaking to jobs being outsourced and leveling
the playing field is a way to reach these voters in
“red” states.
13
Lake Research Partners
Attitudes on trade and trade agreements
Americans are generally positive about globalization
in principle. Overall, they are unsure of the impact of
trade policies on them and have strong concerns
about the impact on jobs and wages.
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The general attitude towards
globalization is positive.
Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable,
somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of...globalization?
Neither
Unfavorable
Favorable
0%
15
Survey by German Marshall Fund
of the US. Methodology:
Conducted by TNS Opinion and
Social Institutes, September 5September 25, 2006 and based
on telephone interviews with a
national adult sample of 999.
Data provided by The Roper
Center for Public Opinion
Research, University of
Connecticut.
17%
20%
11%
12%
10%
39%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Lake Research Partners
Darker colors indicate higher intensity
Americans are not sure about the
impact of free trade agreements on
prices.
As I read some of the possible ways free trade agreements affect America, tell me what
your impression is....Do free trade agreements make the price of products sold in the US
(United States) higher, lower or not make a difference?
Higher
14%
Lower
30%
No Difference
Don't Know/ Refused
23%
32%
Survey by Pew Research Center.
Methodology: Conducted by Princeton
Survey Research Associates
International, December 6-December 10,
2006 and based on telephone interviews
with a national adult sample of 1,502.
[USPSRA.121906.R39A]
Data provided by The Roper Center for
Public Opinion Research, University of
Connecticut.
16
Lake Research Partners
Just 11% see free trade agreements
raising American wages overall.
(As I read some of the possible ways free trade agreements affect America,
tell me what your impression is.)...Do free trade agreements make the
wages of American workers higher, lower, or not make a difference?
14%
Higher
11%
Lower
No Difference
Don't Know/ Refused
30%
44%
Survey by Pew Research Center.
Methodology: Conducted by Princeton
Survey Research Associates
International, December 6-December 10,
2006 and based on telephone interviews
with a national adult sample of 1,502.
[USPSRA.121906.R39A]
Data provided by The Roper Center for
Public Opinion Research, University of
Connecticut.
17
Lake Research Partners
Just one third believe agreements such as
NAFTA have helped them and 29% aren’t
sure one way or the other.
Thinking about the financial situation of you and your family...Do you think these free trade
agreements like NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and the WTO (World Trade
Organization) have definitely helped, probably helped, probably hurt, or definitely hurt the
financial situation of you and your family?
Don't
know/Refused
Neither
Survey by Pew Research Center. Methodology:
Conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates
International, December 6-December 10, 2006 and
based on telephone interviews with a national adult
sample of 1,502. [USPSRA.121906.R38]
Data provided by The Roper Center for Public Opinion
Research, University of Connecticut.
18%
11%
Helped 3%
Hurt
0%
35%
32%
12%
5%
24%
10%
15%
20%
25%
36%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Darker colors indicate higher intensity
18
Lake Research Partners
Protecting jobs is a major
concerns for voters.
• In November of 2005, a Pew* poll found that
the public rated protecting American jobs as
nearly as important as defending the country
against terrorism (86% terrorism, 84% jobs).
By contrast, the poll found few opinion
leaders who consider jobs a top tier foreign
policy goal.
19
* Pew Research Center, Sept. 5-Oct. 31, 2005: 2,000 adults, 520 opinion leaders
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Moving forward
Democrats have a strong message on trade,
jobs, and outsourcing. Energy independence
is a strong issue that links the new economy,
the future, and good jobs for Americans.
Lake Research Partners
Democrats have a strong
message in addressing these
concerns about the negative
impact of “free” trade.
Now, let me read you some signature policies from a [Democratic/Republican] candidate for
Congress. After hearing it, please tell me whether it makes you much more likely, somewhat
more likely, a little more likely, or no more likely or less likely to support that candidate.
DEMOCRATIC
We're running trade deficits and
outsourcing jobs abroad while new
jobs in America have lower wages
and fewer benefits. We need a new
strategy that reduces our import of
foreign oil, enforces labor rights and
environmental protections in trade
accords, and provides tax credits for
companies that create jobs in the US
(United States) and invest in new
American industries.
80% more likely to vote for this
candidate (47% much more likely).
21
REPUBLICAN
America benefits from free trade
which helps our economy at home
and abroad. Our trade policy is
generating growth and new markets
for US (United States) products,
while American consumers benefits
from the inexpensive products that
are produced abroad.
50% more likely to vote for this
candidate (13% much more likely)
Survey by Campaign for America's Future and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research,
June 4-June 7, 2006. 1000 registered voters
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 Democrats were able to use alternative energy plans to increase
the perception that they had new and innovative ideas that could
bring about the change that voters were looking for.
 Newly elected Congressman Jerry McNerney built on the power of
this issue with his strong profile of expertise on renewable energy
and communicated a national energy plan to voters in his
successful upset over Richard Pombo.
 This is an area where Democrats can follow through – alternative,
renewable, and sustainable energy is an arena where voters
support government taking the lead rather than allowing
businesses and corporations to make the investment decisions.
22
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As with many progressive
issues, one of the biggest
barriers is cynicism.
• Yankelovich reported in “The Tipping Point” in 2006 that most
Americans (74%) feel it is unlikely that U.S. companies would
keep jobs in the country when labor is cheaper elsewhere, and
52% believe it was unrealistic to think that the government could
do anything to stop corporations from sending jobs overseas—
though a plurality believe the government could do a lot more to
prevent jobs from moving overseas if it tried.
23
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