Transcript Slide 1

Evolution of the Tropical Forests since 1990
and analysis of the deforestation drivers
Philippe Mayaux, Frédéric Achard, René Beuchle,
Hans-Jürgen Stibig, Hugh D. Eva, Andreas Brink,
Catherine Bodart, Silvia Carboni, Baudouin Desclée,
François Donnay, Andrea Lupi, Jukka Miettinen,
Rastislav Raši, Roman Seliger, Dario Simonetti
Institute for Environment and Sustainability
Joint Research Centre - European Commission
+ FAO collaborators
+ 150 regional experts
JRC heritage in tropical forest monitoring
TREES-1 (1992-1997)
First reliable maps of the tropical forests
TREES-2 (1997-2003)
Global estimates of deforestation
TREES-3 (2007-2013)
Regional estimates of deforestation + C emissions
FOROBS (2014-2016)
Assessment of forest degradation
OFAC (2007-2016)
Regional Observatory for Central African Forests
ReCaREDD (2014-2017)
Capacity-building on forest degradation
Joint FAO/JRC report
Final report released in Dec. 2012
FAO & JRC. 2012
Global forest land-use change
1990–2005
FAO Forestry Paper No. 169.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations and European Commission
Joint Research Centre. Rome, FAO.
http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/remotesensin
gsurvey/en/
FAO/JRC Forest Resource Assessment
1990
2000
2005
2010
Systematic sampling of
Landsat images at 3 epochs
The methodology is based on the analysis of a systematic sample of sites
for which 30 m resolution satellite data are collected
Sub-Saharan Africa
2,045
Central & South America 1,230
and the Caribbean
South and Southeast
Asia
741
Methodology: Example
Change Map 1990-2000
1990
2000
No change
Change
From
Forest
Change
To
Forest
Regional TREES-3 Validation Workshops
for Africa
Workshop West Africa
Workshop East Africa
Dakar (08-13 March 2010)
Nairobi (28 Sept- 2 Oct 2009)
15 Experts from 14 countries
12 Experts from 10 countries
3 JRC support staff
4 support staff including 3 JRC
Workshop Central Africa
Kinshasa (28 Sept- 9 Oct 2009)
Workshop Southern Africa
15 Experts from 7 countries
Cape Town (3-7 May 2010)
6 support staff from FAO, UCL & JRC
15 Experts from 8 countries
3 support staff including 2 JRC
Forest area (106 ha)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Woodlands
Dry Forests
Lat. America
Humid Forests
Dry Forests
Woodlands
Humid Forests
Africa
Lat. America
618.3
153.4
167.3
Southeast
Asia
Africa
212.5
288.7
683.9
Southeast Asia
172.8
128.5
123
Deforestation estimates (H+D Forests)
3
0.60%
Deforestation
Area
2.5
(106 ha)
0.50%
0.40%
2
0.30%
1.5
0.20%
0.10%
1
0.00%
0.5
0
Latin America
Africa
Southeast Asia
Lat. America (rate)
Africa (rate)
Southeast Asia (rate)
-0.10%
1990-2000
2.85
0.86
1.78
0.36%
0.17%
0.56%
2000-2010
2.84
0.77
1.44
0.37%
0.15%
0.48%
-0.20%
1990-2000
2000-2010
Drivers of Change in Southeast Asia
12
Deforestation drivers in Amazon Basin
Direct drivers
• Agro-business: wide range of commodities such as
beef, soy, maize, oil palm, sugar, rice, cacao, coffee,
pulp & paper, tobacco.
• Subsistence agriculture (+ fuel wood)
• Forest exploitation (timber extraction, artisanal
logging…)
• Extractive industries (mining, oil)
• Infrastructure and urbanisation
Underlying causes
• Population growth and local economic
development
• Weak governance structures and law
• Global demand for commodities
Deforestation drivers in Congo Basin
Drivers
Importance
Subsistence agriculture
Rural and food for cities
Fuel wood & charcoal
Mining, oil
Rural and peri-urban
Limited extent, but strong impact
Logging in concessions
Very low impact
Illegal logging
????
Agro-industry
Low impact, but increasing
Infrastructure
Limited extent but increasing
Urbanisation
Limited extent but increasing
Climate Change
Drier climate in coastal part
Underlying causes
Population growth
Local economic development
Weak governance (institutions and law)
Need for a long-term land-use planning
Category
Role
Research needs
Incentives/
policies
Forests
Timber
Production
Ecology (regeneration)
FLEGT, Lacey Act…
REDD+
Forests /
plantations
Fuel wood
production
Agronomy
Carbon credits /
CDM
Forests
Protection and
Conservation
CC mitig. / adapt.
Hydrology
REDD+
Biodiv. royalties
Forests
NTFP, bushmeat
Sustainability of
proteins provision
Small-scale
Agriculture
Food for rural
population
Agronomy
Socio-economy
Price policy
Agro-industries
High revenue
Agronomy
Market prices,
Round tables
Mines, oil
Revenue
Impact assessment
Market prices, EITI
New data and methods for degradation
(RECAREDD)
Landsat, 30 m resolution
Kompsat, 4 m resolution
Conclusions
• Deforestation is still a hot issue, but political will
can reduce the intensity of the phenomenon
• Illegal logging is not a main deforestation driver,
bad governance is
• Focus on other benefits than VPAs of the FLEGT
Action Plan on other policies
• FLEGT must be combined with the others EU policies
for a long-term maintenance of the ecosystem
services provided by tropical forests: biodiversity,
energy, REDD+, sustainable agriculture, EITI…
• FLEGT is an important process, but the goal is the
sustainable provision of services by forests
• Need for an innovative land-use planning policy in
terms of local, national and global benefit (which
ecosystem services for which beneficiaries?)
• TECHNICAL capacities on forest management are
desperately missing
Merci
Thank you