Allocating

David Levinson,

Flow through upstream lane (Q l ) Flow through upstream section (Q) Flow through bottleneck (q )

Where Does Congestion Come From?

10 5 0 0 20 15

Inputs & Outputs

Input-Output Diagram Cumulative Count

25 2 4 6

Time

Cumulative Arrivals 8 Cumulative Departures 10 12

How Do We Manage Congestion

• • • • • • • Infrastructure ( Assembly ) Travel Demand Management (TDM) Changing Preferences (Education, Marketing) Transportation Systems Management (TSM) Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) (TSM rebranded + more advanced technology) Growth Management (Rationing - Long Term) (e.g. Montgomery County MD) Acceptance of Congestion (Rationing - Short Term) (The world we see)

Why TSM?

• • • • We have largely built out existing transportation network (S Curve). [What is an S-Curve?] Highways are a mature system.

More efficient (faster, safer, greater person flows (and vehicle flows)) use of existing transportation facilities without significant new construction.

Complements TDM strategies - but not aimed at reducing demand.

Some TSM/ITS Tools

• • • • • • • • • • • High Occupancy Vehicle Lanes (HOV Lanes) High Occupancy Toll Lanes (HOT Lanes) Bus Priority Lanes, Queue Jumpers, Signal Pre-emption Park and Ride Lots Ramp Meters Highway Helpers Variable Message Signs Electronic Toll Collection Highway Access Management Other “Intelligent Transportation Systems” Other

How Should We Manage Congestion

• Pricing

Classic Explanation

Price, cost Marginal cost, short run Average cost, short run Toll

P* P

o Demand Legend:

P*

= Op timal price with tolls

P o

= Price without tolls = Welfare loss without tolls

Q* Q

o

Q*

= Amount of travel with tolls

Q o

= Amount of travel without tolls Quantity

Trav el time (LOS)

S F S E S D S C S B S A

Money p rice to travelers $ D F Trav el time fu nction (sh ort-run averag e cos t) Quan tity (traffic flow) Rev ealed demand

Classic Explanation Unpacked

D A (Deman d at LOS A) Quan tity (traffic flow)

Welfare Analysis

But Travel Time Varies with Time

• • • Classic explanation doesn’t account for that.

Recall I/O Diagram What is marginal delay?

10 5 0 0 20 15

Inputs & Outputs

Input-Output Diagram Cumulative Count

25 2 4 6

Time

Cumulative Arrivals 8 Cumulative Departures 10 12

5 4 3 2 1 0 0

Marginal Delay

10 9 8 7 6

Marginal Delay

Marginal Delay (excluding own delay) 5 10 15

Cumulative Arrivals (Q)

20 25

HOT Lanes

• • Congestion pricing is “too hard” politically at this time.

What are HOT Lanes?

Pricing is Inevitable

• • • • • • Why?

Gas tax revenue is shrinking as the fleet becomes more fuel efficient – – – – better Internal Combustion Engine, Hybrid vehicles Alternative fuel vehicles Fuel Cells Yet roads still need to be financed Congestion will still be problem Devolution of power changes incentives (free riders) Electronic toll collection makes pricing much easier.

ADMINISTERING

David Levinson,

These problems…fiscal imbalance, traffic congestion, air pollution, the movement of jobs away from minority groups…are susceptible to rather precise formulation and study; alternative ways of coping with them can be conceived and evaluated with a certain rigor; the obstacles to remedial action are primarily political (and to a certain degree economic)…what is most important, something can be done.

-- James Q. Wilson (1970)

After all…

How many homebuyers would be interested in cheap houses without roads, water, sewers, schools, parks and other urban amenities?

What is growth management?

• Growth management is about affordable housing…but it is also about environmental protection, efficient provision of infrastructure, coordinated patterns of land use and transportation, adequate revenues to finance development needs, and healthy preservation of open space.

• It is about doing each of the above in accordance with goals that the public has chosen.

• Close and well coordinated actions between land use control (and planning) and capital investment.

• Distinguished from more traditional plans by their intent and scope rather than by the implementing techniques they use.

Ultimately, growth management is about regulating the: Amount, timing, location, character of development

Waves of growth management

1. concern over how much growth would be allowed, 2. where and when growth would be permitted, and who would pay for it, 3. what kind of growth is allowed or encouraged.

Growth Management Approaches Levels

• Regulations • Incentives • Spending • Information/education • Federal • State • Regional • Municipal

Issues?

Is growth management all motherhood and apple pie? Together, identify at least three instances in which there may be negative consequences of growth management programs.

Costs of Growth Management

• Housing affordability – Inflation?

– Artificial constriction of supply – Other?

• Open space • Diversion to other areas • Exclusion of certain populations • Other?

Montgomery County, MD: Motivation

• • • • • • • Desire for Adequate Public Facilities Limited Public Resources Congestion Balance Jobs & Houses Focus Development Around Transit Constrain Growth in Corridor Later - Support Affordable Housing

The Complexity of the Problem

• • Infrastructure capacity absorption depends on underlying technology and a development ’ s: – location, – timing, – – density, and character Infrastructure serves multiple uses and users – – – Multi-dimensional bundle of attributes A flow not a stock May have a “capacity” or a “standard”

Planning Process

• Monitoring should be linked to – Master plans – Capital Improvement Programs – Financing System – Development Regulation

Decision Frameworks

• • • • • Proactive vs. Reactive Categories vs. Continuum Single vs. Multi-Dimensional Incremental vs. Comprehensive Coordinated vs. Fragmented

Map

Historical Overview

• • • • • • • 1974: APFO, Report recommending Staging Policy For Each Area 1970s: Series of Policy Reports 1980: Comprehensive Staging Plan < failed > 1981-6: Comprehensive Planning Policies (Planning Board) 1986: Interim Growth Plan 1987-Present: Annual Growth Policy (Planning Board & County Council) 1997: Alternative Review Procedures

Growth

Carrying Capacity Model

Private Population Need tolerance Large Increment of Change Public Facility Capacity Points of Perfect Balance Time Figure 1: The Timing of Public Facilities and Private Development

Setting Staging Ceilings

Posit Area Land Use Pattern & Allocate Land Use to Zones Load into Travel Demand Model & Run Compute Total Transportation Level of Service for each Area Compute Countywide system score No Convergence Test Yes Final Land Use Pattern

Financing Alternatives

• • • • • Developer Funded Roads Trip Mitigation Impact Fees or Taxes Development Districts Development Approval Payment

Model of Transportation and Land Use

Transit Capacity + + + Transit Demand + Amount of Development + Auto Demand + Transit Accessibilty + ?

+ Land Value + + + + + Roadway Accessibility + Roadway Capacity Roadway Congestion + Gov't Imposed Cost on Development + Figure 4: Transportation and the Montgomery County Growth Management System

Second Best Development Regulation:

  Minimizes the Cost of: Prevention   (Build) The cost of infrastructure required to maintain the performance indicators (Engineering or Statistical), or (Manage) The cost of demand and supply management to maintain the performance measures.

Damage  (Accept) The cost to the community of worsening the performance indicators in the absence of the infrastructure.

Lessons Learned

• • • • • • Dividing Responsibility Categorizing the Continuous Single Dimensional Standards Measures of Effectiveness “Rational” Planning Bringing Distant Dangers Near

Problems Inherent to Talk of Growth Management

• Excessive talk about height, bulk, scale, or volume-to-capacity ratios. Rather than experience or quality of life.

• Tend to talk in terms of incomes, mixing incomes, and bringing more of "that" income into my neighborhood. In turn we talk less of where the school teacher is going to live?

• We tend to talk in terms of regulation…forcing people to do things. Rather, can we not make $$ and do the right thing at the same time?

• We tend to focus on the supply of public services for me and my community. This in turn steers conversations away from the supply of public services for a more common good

Land Regulation and Exculsion

Land use controls •Low density zoning •Building permit caps •UGBs •APFO •moratoria Slower growth Shift toward Single-family Fewer rentals Lower rental affordability Racial exclusion

Issues

Action taken Effect Restrict/limit allowable uses Specify certain size restrictions Restrict rate of development One community adopts, another does not Regional growth management Slows pace of development and diverts Increase cost, make exclusionary Diverts to other areas Inconsistency b/w jurisdictions Spreads development out…further dispersion

What is land use planning?

…public sector planning for privately owned land and privately managed land markets. The preparation of plans for cities, city fringes, and rural areas that indicate the future development pattern of those areas. …also included is the development and management of legal mechanisms such as zoning regulations, subdivision controls, and differential tax programs to induce and facilitate private land owners to bring about the land use pattern broadly outlined in the land use plans. (Harvey Jacobs ’89)