Transcript Case Study: Syria

Case Study:
Syria
Keisuke Fujita, Taro Kimura, George
Chen
Syria
•
•
•
Population of
22,530,746
Leader: President
Bashar al-Assad
Muslim is not a
state religion, but
the president has to
be one in the
constitution
•
Current civil war
has ethnic divides
o Government leaders
tend to be Alawi
Muslims
o Opposition mostly
Sunni Muslims
Background
Oct. 1918 - British backed Arabs end 400 year Ottoman rule, take
Damascus
Jun. 1920 - Syria-Lebanon placed under French rule
1922 - Syria made an autonomous region
1925-26 - uprising against French rule
1936 - Syria independence, but France still has military and economic
control
1949 - Adib al-Shishakhli takes power in 3rd coup of the year
1954 - army leads coup against Al-Shishakhli, returns power to civilian
gov.
Mar. 1963 - coup by army officers - Amin al-Hafez becomes president,
internal coup in 3 years and again in 1970
Mar. 1971 - Hafez al-Assd elected president
Background 2
1980 - Muslim uprisings in Aleppo, Homs, and Hama
Feb. 1982 - military suppresses Muslim uprising in Hama - human
rights org. accuse military of killing tens of thousands of civilians
Tensions with Israel and helping US with Iraq
Jun 2000 - Assad dies, second son Bashar takes over
Sep. 2001 - parlimentarians and activists arresting begins (throughout
rest of decade)
May 2004 - US sanctions Syria on supporting terrorism and allowing
miltants to enter Iraq
May 2007 - dissident Kamai Labwani and writer Michel Kilo jailed - h.r.
lawyer Anwar al-Bunni soon after
May 2010 - US renews sanctions despite thawing relations for terrorist
support
Overview of the current situation
in Syria
According to NY times, at this time...
40,000 deaths estimated
more than 400,000 registered as refugee
1.2 million of internally displaced people
2.5 million Syrian need humanitarian aid
The course of the situation in
Syria in 2011
1/26 2011
Inspired by similar events across the region, protests began against the ruling
regime in Syria.
March 2011
Protest actions escalated across Syria. On 15 March, state security forces
responded with violent repression.
4/21 2011
Although emergency which had been in effect for nearly 50 years law was
lifted, Assad introduced a new executive order to restrict demonstration.
4/29 2011
The course of the situation in
Syria in 2011
6/8 2011
UK, France, Germany and Portugal circulated a draft resolution which
condemned Syria, but Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil
hesitated to discuss it concerning excessive interference by the Security
Council
6/24 2011
Europe Union imposed further economic sanctions on Syria
7/29 2011
A group of defected officers announced the formation of the Free Syrian Army
(FSA)
The course of the situation in
Syria in 2011
8/3 2011
The Security Council adopted a presidential statement which condemned Syria.
This was the first action by the Security Council
8/23 2011
A coalition of anti-government groups was formed, the Syrian National Council.
10/4 2011
China and Russia vetoed a draft resolution, sponsored by France, Germany,
Portugal and the UK, which condemned the Syrian crackdown on
protestors. Brazil, India, Lebanon and South Africa abstained.
11/28 2011
Response from the UN in 2011
UNSC
6/8 2011 the first draft resolution was submitted to the Security council and it
failed to pass
10/4 2011 the second draft resolution was submitted. it demanded Syria to
cease violations of human rights, allow the full exercise of human rights and
fundamental freedoms, cease the use of force against civilians,
Human Rights Council
4/29 2011 it strongly condemned military response to peaceful demonstrations,
urged Syria to do so, and called upon release of political prisoners
General Assembly
12/19 2011 it condemned the violence in Syria and called upon the Syrian
authorities to implement the Plan of Action of the League of Arab States
Plan of Action of the League of Arab
States
1. Stop all acts of violence committed by any side in order
to protect Syrian citizens.
1. Release all detainees arrested from the beginning of the
crisis.
1. Withdraw all military equipment and artillery from cities
and residential neighborhoods.
1. Allow Arab League-affiliated organizations as well as
The course of the situation in
Syria in 2012
2/4 2012
UNSC draft resolution condemning the violence in Syria was vetoed by China
and Russia with all other Council members voting in favor
2/16 2012
The General Assembly adopted a resolution which additionally requested the
Secretary-General to appoint a special envoy for Syria
2/29 2012
Kofi Annan was appointed as the UN-Arab League Joint Special Envoy for
Syria
4/14 2012
Resolution 2042 was adopted and had authorised the deployment of 30
unarmed military observers to Syria and offered "six-point proposal"
4/21 2012
Resolution 2043 to authorize the establishment of United Nations Supervision
Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) was adopted
Six point proposal by Annan
-work with the Envoy to address the legitimate
aspiration and concerns of the Syrian People
-stop the fighting and achieve ceasefire under
UN supervision
-ensure provision of humanitarian assistance
-release unjustly detained people
-ensure freedom of movement for journalists
-respect freedom of association and the right to
demonstrate peacefully as legally guaranteed
The course of the situation in
Syria in 2012
7/19 2012
A draft resolution under Chapter VII was vetoed by China and Russia with
Pakistan and South Africa abstaining
7/20 2012
The Council adopted resolution 2059 renewing UNSMIS for a final period of
thirty days and conditioning any further renewal on the cessation of the use
of heavy weapons by the Syrian government and a reduction in violence by
all sides
7/22 2012
The Arab League called on Assad to renounce power for a safe exit
8/2 2012
Kofi Annan announced his resignation as Special Envoy
8/3 2012
the General Assembly adopted a resolution deploring the Security Council’s
failure to act on Syria and calling for a political transition (there were 133
votes in favour, 12 against and 31 abstentions)
The course of the situation in
Syria in 2012
October 2012
UN-brokered ceasefire during the Islamic holiday of Eid al-Adha breaks
down as government continues attacks.
11/11 2012
Several major opposition forces unite as National Coalition for Syrian
Revolutionary and Opposition Forces at meeting in Qatar, including
the Syrian National Council
12/13 2012
The United States would formally recognize the National Coalition of
Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces as that country's
legitimate representative
Response from the UN in 2012
UNSC
・Resolution 2042
It authorised the deployment of 30 military observers to Syria and
called upon Syria to cease troop movements, all use of heavy
weapons in population centers. It offered "six-point proposals"
・Resolution 2043
It established United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS)
comprised by 300 unarmed military observers to monitor ceasefire.
・Resolution 2059
It extended UNSMIS for a final period of 30 days
Response from the UN in 2012
UNSC
・Draft resolution on 4 February in 2012
five key aspects: an end to all acts of violence; release of detainees; withdrawal
of armed forces from civilian areas; guarantee of the freedom of peaceful
demonstrations; and freedom of access to the UN, NGOs and human rights
monitors. in the event of non-compliance, UNSC would consider further
measures.
without any arms embargoes and sanctions on Syria
・Draft resolution on 19 July in 2012
under the chapter 7 of the UN Charter, it implied further measures would be
imposed in the case that Syria could not fulfill ceasefire and complete
pullback from population centers.
without any arms embargoes and sanctions on Syria again
Response from the UN in 2012
General Assembly
A/RES/66/253
it condemned the violence in Syria, endorsed the Arab League’s 22 January on
a Syrian political transition, and requested the Secretary-General to appoint
a special envoy for Syria.
A/RES/66/253 B
it deplored the Security Council’s failure to act on Syria and called for a political
transition
Human Rights Council
A/HRC/RES/20/22
The Human Rights Council adopted this resolution which condemned the gross
human rights violations and indiscriminate targeting of civilians in Syria by
government authorities and the Shabiha.
Individual government
responses
Turkey
6/22 2012 a Turkish fighter was shot down
10/3 2012 a skirmish between borders happened
Turkey is one of the strongest countries on Syria
Russia
1/8 2012 a fleet sailed into Syria
2/8 2012 the foreign minister talked with Assad
Russia persists in protection of Assad government
United States
5/29 2012 deported diplomats
12/13 2012 recognized opposition party as formal representative of Syria
US (Obama) persists in trying to solve the problem by talks unless chemical
R2P Clauses
•
Theoretical Stage - no action taken yet
o
•
•
even when clauses that enable embargoes and
sanctions were removed, major UN resolutions
blocked
Another check of R2P to guide international
action
Guatemalan and French Ministers of Foreign
Affaris Harold Caballeros and Alain Juppé
both reference
o
"the obligation of all States to observe norms of
conduct in relation to their own populations"
R2P - Just Cause -
•
•
•
•
26000 - 35000 civilians dead
o
4000-5000 rebel fighters
9500 Syrian regime forces
500 unidentifiable
Loss of life, excessive force, ignoring
international community
R2P - Proportional Means
•
•
No direct intervention
o
loss of life continued for 2 years after initial protest
Sanctions from U.S., E.U., and even Arab
League but not directly from U.N.
o
blocked by Russia and China
R2P - Right Intention -
•
•
•
Strong humanitarian motive for action
Even League of Arab Nations critical of Syria
Delays because legality and sovereignty,
politicized situation
o
o
•
Mission, Russia's links to Syria - Tartus base
General Assembly condemning Security Council's
on Feb. 4 and Jul. 9 Drafts
Failure to act on "Uniting for Peace"
R2P - Right Authority -
•
No intervention yet, so still respecting
sovereignty of Syria via Art. 2
o
•
•
o
Effort to respect authority of Arab League and local
politics
UNSMIS and Arab League mission
Generally a solid grounds for R2P
intervention
o
legacy backlash of Libya and Arab Spring
Failed to move promptly
R2P - Last Resort -
•
•
•
•
Not applicable
Use of resolutions and special U.S. Envoy
UNSMIS
Worked with local Arab league
o
vetoed resolutions by Russia and China
Tensions have continued for two years
ultimately still not acting to directly interfere
with a dangerously tense situation for better
or worse
R2P - Reasonable Prospects -
•
•
•
General Assembly condemned the Security
Council
Support of Arab League
Concerns about actual process and
aftermath
o
comparison to Libya
Libya's aftereffects
•
•
R2P still has tension from Libya where
NATO authority overreached - similar to
Bush-era concerns with Darfur
o
China's concern with regime change
Possible need to reform Security Council for
when dealing with mass atrocity
Syria Now - International
positions
• EU tabling more severe measures - change
embargo to supply rebels suggested by
Britain
•
o
Recognition of Syrian National Council
o
•
blocked - wait until Jan 28 for further discussion
o
US, UK, France, Egypt
114 countries total
Russia's support - concerned about rebels Dec. 13
Syria Now - Locally
•
•
•
•
Nov - Regime forces leave Kurdish areas,
allowing Kurds to take over, overwhelmingly
in peace
Opposition setting up a framework to
maintain state institutions for if al-Assad falls
fighting continues - Opposition believes it
doesn't need support now - Dec. 13
al-Assad - chemical weapons - Scud missles
- Dec. 12
References
-Security Council Report, Syria, [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012]
available from http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/syria/
-International Coalition for the Responsibility to Protect, Crisis in Syria, [Online],
[accessed 12/16 2012]
available from
http://www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/index.php/crises/crisis-in-syria#back
-International Coalition for the Responsibility to Protect, UN Security Councils
Fails to Uphold its Responsibility to Protect in Syria, [Online], [accessed
12/16 2012]
available from http://icrtopblog.org/2011/10/07/un-security-council-fails-touphold-its-responsibility-to-protect-in-syria/
-New York Times, Syria News, [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012]
availabe from
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/syria
/index.html?8qa
References 2
-New York Times, Syria News, [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012]
availabe from
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/syria
/index.html?8qa
-Evan Centanni, Political Geography Now, Syria Uprising Map: October 2012
(#7), [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012]
available from http://www.polgeonow.com/2012/10/syria-uprising-map-october2012-7.html
-BBC, Syria profile - Timeline, [Online]. [accessed 12/16 2012]
avaiable from
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14703995
References 3
- Vivienne Walt, Syria's Body Count: Meet the Exile Tracking the Death Toll
[Online]. [accessed 12/16 2012]
available from http://world.time.com/2012/11/13/syrias-body-count-meet-theexile-tracking-the-death-toll/
Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/14/us-syria-crisis-euidUSBRE8BD0HN20121214
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/13/us-syria-crisis-usaidUSBRE8BC1I820121213
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/15/us-syria-opposition-stateidUSBRE8BE0D320121215
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/14/us-syria-crisis-euidUSBRE8BD0HN20121214
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/13/us-syria-crisis-russiaidUSBRE8BC1AW20121213
Thank you for
listening!!