Transcript Maize Production Trends and Outlook in Kenya

Maize Production Outlook and
Implications for Food Security
TEGEMEO INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY AND
DEVELOPMENT, EGERTON UNIVERSITY
September 18, 2009
Presentation outline
• Maize production and consumption trends
in Kenya
• Production expectations for 2009/2010
• Stock management issues
• Policy implications
Maize production and
consumption trends
(2000-2008)
Million bags
National maize production and consumption
trends: 2000-2008
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
02
03
04
Production
05
Year
06
07
Consumption
Source: Economic Survey 2008; MOA; & Tegemeo computations
08
Contribution of regions to national
production: 2000-2008
Source: Ministry of Agriculture
Rift Valley: increasingly an important source of grain
Nyanza: declining contribution to production
Expected maize production shortfall for
the 2009/2010 season
Expected yield based on assessment of current
maize crop, long rains season 2009
Normal
Expected
yield/acre
yield per
10
Nakuru
Tasselling/ milk stage
1–5
18
Uasin Gishu
Tasseling, Roasting
10 – 15
20
Trans-Nzoia
Tasselling, Roasting
12– 15
14
Nandi North
Milk Stage
8– 12
8
Laikipia
Knee-high
0– 2
6
Nyandarua
Knee-high
5– 7
12
Koibatek
Tasselling
2– 5
20
Lugari
Roasting/milking
12 – 15
11
Narok
Harvested
2– 6
14
Kericho/
Roasting/harvesting
10
13
Bungoma
Harvested/Roasting
10 – 15
11
Bomet
Harvested/ pockets of planting
8 – 10
16
Trans-Mara
Harvested/planting/ weeding
7 – 15
10
Nandi South
Harvested/planting
7 – 10
6
Eastern
Harvested, LP awaiting planting
1.6
8
Central Province All Harvested except
2.6
6
11
Nyanza
>70% harvested
District
Maize Growth Stage
Tegemeo’s estimation of maize production
for long rains 2009
Province
Production % Area
Harvested
Yield (Bags)
Achieved
(Ha)
R/Valley
544,178
19.5 10,605,096
Nyanza
Western
Central
175,453
196,422
76,570
13.6
17.3
6.5
Eastern
Others
Totals
173,155
73264
1,239,042
2,383,529
3,396,136
499,298
4.0
684,309
0.5
35,694
14.2 17,604,062
Crop Performance
· South Rift (40 - 85% Decline in
· East & Central Rift (80 – 90%
<25% · North Rift 30% decline
· 60% decline in the lowlands
>85% · 30-40% decline in Highlands
>60% · 30% Decline
>95% · 70% Decline
· 100% failure in lower and upper
>95% · Near-normal production in Central
>80% · 80 -100% Decline
61% of the target (28 m bags)
N/B: Production estimates and based on acreage figures provided by the MOA
Production estimates for
2009/2010
•
Best case scenario for 2009/2010 crop year is
about 23m bags against a consumption of
>37m bags
–
–
•
About 17.6m bags from the long rains season. This
is the best scenario with adequate rainfall in areas
where the crop was either at knee high, tasselling or
milk stage as at beginning of Sept. 2009.
About 6m bags from the short-rains season with
adequate rains; production is normally 15% of
average annual production
Worst case scenario
•
Inadequate rainfall - could be very grim
Need for adjustments
• Estimated annual consumption of 37m bags exclude
green maize YET our production assessment of 23m
bags for 2009/2010 is not adjusted for green maize
harvests
– Reported levels of green maize sales :
• Nandi South: up to 60%
• Bomet/Trans-Mara: 40%
• Trans-Nzoia: significant
• Reasons: profitable; fear of rotting due to rains; decline in
production of green maize in Central province
• Case for El-Nino
• Potential destruction of long rain crop in the fields (R/valley)
• Potential gains for short season crop
• Production from irrigation
– Govt indicated some maize production from irrigation by December
(minimal)
Bridging the production shortfall:
Imports
• Under the best case scenario, Kenya will
experience a shortfall of about 14m bags in the
2009/2010 cropping year
Maize stocks and management
Maize stocks (bags) as at Jul 30th 2009
Province
Farmer’s
Traders
NCPB
and Millers
Totals
Western
380,814
150,778
531,592
Nyanza
455,032
242,605
697,637
1,613,088
41,155
461,895
50,336
2,074,983
91,491
67,132
72,998
130,574
1,620
32,516
34,136
0
12,059
12,059
415
675
1,090
R/Valley
Central
Eastern
Coast
Nairobi
N/Eastern
NCPB
Total
2,559,256
1,023,862
1,975,287
1,975,287
1,975,287
5,568,405
Stocks to last 2 Months (Aug/Sep)
Source: Ministry of Agriculture
Stock management issue
• No budgetary allocation made for food importation for SGR
in 2009/2010 (source: Ministry of Finance)
• Inadequate SGR (1.8m vs. recommended 8m bags)
– NCPB not selling maize with implications on its price
stabilization role
• Ksh.1 bn allocated for generalized food subsidy for urban
poor
• Ksh. 5.35 bn allocated for general food relief for rural poor
• Total Ksh. 6.35 bn can purchase about 2.5m bags of maize
– Can feed 10 million people for only 3 months
How do we raise maize
stocks?/policy implications
• 2008 experience:
– 10m bags needed to be imported by May 2008 but not
done until consequences were felt
– Duty waiver on maize not granted until Jan 2009
– Effects of the waiver on maize prices were not evident
until 5 months later
How do we raise maize stocks?/policy
implications
• What to consider when importing
– Quicker response when food balance indicates need
for imports
• This potentially requires major budgetary allocation when
major deficits are expected
– Time lag between import order and arrival of grain in
the country side (~2 months)
– Information on supply of grains and movements in
grain world prices
– Duty on until end of June 2010
• Review situation before removal
Policy suggestions for dealing
with production shortfalls
Policy suggestions
• Short-term
– Expansion of relief efforts
• Increase SGR
• Increase food relief supplies to the most vulnerable
– Stimulating production
• Targeted fertilizer/seed support for short rains season
• Expansion of irrigation
– Maintaining duty waiver
• Allow adequate/affordable imports
• Long-term
– Productivity enhancing investments
• Expansion of irrigation; roads & railway infrastructure; R&D
• Improving access to productivity enhancing inputs
– Working with private sector to improve access to seeds and
fertilizers by farmers
Thank You