Transcript Document

Child
Mortality Estimation
Pending Issues
Workshop on MDG monitoring
(SADC/ECA)
Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
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MDG4: Reduce child mortality
Target 5: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and
2015, the under-five mortality rate
13. Under-five mortality rate (U5MR)
14. Infant mortality rate (IMR)
15. Proportion of 1 year-old children immunised
against measles
2
Summary of pending issues
1. Are there differences between child mortality
estimates (IMR and U5MR) produced at the country
level and those produce globally?
2. The inter agency group for child mortality estimation
3. The child mortality data base
4. Regional workshops for coordination and capacity
building
3
Summary of pending issues
1. Are there differences between child mortality estimates
(IMR and U5MR) produced at the country level and those
produce globally?
Yes and very often! The question is Why?
1. The inter agency group for child mortality estimation
2. The child mortality data base
3. Regional workshops for coordination and capacity building
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Reasons for the differences
• Different data sources: vital registration, population
census, household surveys, sample registration
systems or a combination of them
• Different methods of calculation for IMR and U5MR
• Different methods of estimation when combining data
sources and methods
• Reference year to which the estimates correspond
and when the estimates are produced (usually in
June for UNICEF but published in November)
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The reality of child mortality estimates
• The majority of child mortality occurs in countries without
adequate vital registration systems - hence use has to be
made of alternative sources, primarily household surveys
and censuses.
• What do these source data look like graphically, and what
might be the derived mortality estimates?
Example: Uganda
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UGANDA
Under five mortality data for the period before 1970
300
U5MR (5 per 1000 live births)
250
Uganda
U5MR
200
1
150
100
50
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
cen69q5i
7
UGANDA
Under five mortality data for the period 1960-1990
300
Uganda
U5MR
U5MR (5 per 1000 live births)
250
200
2
150
100
50
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
cen69q5i
dhs88q5d
dhs88q5i
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UGANDA
Under five mortality data for the period 1960-2000
300
U5MR (5 per 1000 live births)
250
Uganda
U5MR
200
150
3
100
50
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
cen69q5i
dhs88q5d
dhs88q5i
cen92q5i
dhs95q5d
dhs95q5i
dhs00q5d
dhs00q5i
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UGANDA
Under five mortality data for the period 1960-2006
300
U5MR (5 per 1000 live births)
250
Uganda
U5MR
200
150
4
100
50
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
cen69q5i
dhs00q5i
dhs88q5d
dhs06q5d
dhs88q5i
dhs06q5i
cen92q5i
dhs95q5d
dhs95q5i
dhs00q5d
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UGANDA
Under five mortality data and estimated trend 1960-2006
300
U5MR (5 per 1000 live births)
250
Estimates
200
150
100
50
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
cen69q5i
dhs00q5i
dhs88q5d
dhs06q5d
dhs88q5i
dhs06q5i
cen92q5i
Estimates
dhs95q5d
dhs95q5i
dhs00q5d
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Levels and Trends of
Child Mortality in 2006
[Working Paper]
Estimates developed by the Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation
http://www.childinfo.org/areas/childmortality/methodology.php
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Summary of pending issues
1. Are there differences between child mortality
estimates (IMR and U5MR) produced at the country
level and those produce in New York?
2. The inter agency group for child mortality
estimation: IGME!
3. The child mortality data base
4. Regional workshops for coordination and capacity
building
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IGME?
• The Inter Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation – IGME
includes UNICEF, WHO, The World bank and the UN Population
Division. Invites other agencies.
• Aims to produce yearly estimation of child mortality indicators (IMR
and U5MR)
• In the process of developing and maintaining the CM Data Base
• Aims to create capacity at the country level to increase the use of the
CM data base
• Meets at least once a year. Most recent meeting in March 2008.
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Summary of pending issues
1. Are there differences between child mortality
estimates (IMR and U5MR) produced at the country
level and those produce in New York?
2. The inter agency group for child mortality estimation
3. The child mortality data base
4. Regional workshops for coordination and capacity
building
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The child mortality data base
• A DevInfo application
• I will demonstrate the features and uses
• The idea is for countries to become users for data
entry, assessment, estimation and dissemination
• Training to be implemented via regional workshops
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Summary of pending issues
1. Are there differences between child mortality
estimates (IMR and U5MR) produced at the country
level and those produce in New York?
2. The inter agency group for child mortality estimation
3. The child mortality data base
4. Regional workshops for coordination and
capacity building
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Regional workshops for coordination
and capacity building
•
One week training for Maternal Mortality and Child
Mortality
•
Starting in September 2008 in Bangkok
•
Second workshop in Africa (end of 2008 beginning of
2009)
•
Representatives of MOH and NSOs + UNICEF (if needed)
•
Review of data sources, methodologies, and estimation
procedures
•
Hands-on training
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Focal point for CM estimation in
New York
Edilberto Loaiza
[email protected].
Tel. 212-326 7243
QUESTIONS?
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