Transcript ISER

Anchorage Chamber
1/9/06
Fran Ulmer
Director
Institute of Social and Economic Research
Outline
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ISER Overview
Anchorage at 90
Alaska Natural Gas
Kids Count
Soon to be released reports
ISER
The Institute of Social and Economic
Research
Mission
 ISER enhances the well-being of Alaskans and
others, through non-partisan research that helps
people understand social and economic systems
and supports informed public and private
decision-making. ISER pursues its mission by
 Focusing attention on critical economic and social
issues in Alaska , the Arctic , and similar regions;
 Engaging in basic and applied research leading to
better understanding of those issues; and
 Disseminating knowledge through publications,
community involvement, public service, and teaching.
 The Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) was
established by the Alaska Legislature in 1961. ISER's research
spans Alaska's modern history, examining everything from the
effects of the massive 1964 earthquake to the current debate
over how to help Alaska's troubled salmon industry.
 ISER is part of the College of Business and Public Policy at
UAA. It has a core staff of about 30 faculty members, research
associates, and support personnel. Roughly one quarter of its
budget is from university money and three quarters from grants
and contracts. ISER staff members not only do research but also
teach undergraduate and graduate courses.
 ISER maintains the state's largest economic database and
forecasts population and employment growth. All of ISER's
research findings are published and are available through ISER's
offices at UAA. Many are also available on this Web site and
we're continually adding more.
Economic Analysis
Reports
Memorandum on the Economic and Demographic Impacts of a Knik Arm Bridge September 2005. By Scott
Goldsmith.
Economics of UA and the U Med District . December 2004. PDF. By Scott Goldsmith.
Economic significance of the Alaska Railroad. December 2004. By Bradford Tuck and Mary Killorin
2005 Alaska Construction Spending Forecast. January 2005. By Scott Goldsmith and
Mary Killorin.
Economic Considerations in Thinking About United States Marine Aquaculture. By Gunnar Knapp August
2004
.Federal Spending and Revenues In Alaska. November 2003. By Scott Goldsmith and Eric Larson.
Economic Impact of the 2001 Special Olympics World Winter Games Alaska. June 2002. By Scott Goldsmith,
Virgene Hanna, Rosyland Frazier
Evaluation of the Economic Impact of the September 2001 Kodiak Star Launch,. January 2002. By Alexandra Hill.
Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport: Economic Significance 2000 July 2001 By Scott Goldsmith.
ANILCA and the Seward Economy. January 2001. Scott Goldsmith and Stephanie Martin.
The Economic Significance of the Power Cost Equalization Program.November 1998. By Scott Goldsmith.
Expanding Job Opportunities for Alaska Natives. November 1998. By G. Williamson McDiarmid, Scott Goldsmith,
Mary Killorin, Suzanne Sharp, and others.
Anchorage International Airport 1998 Economic Significance. September 1998. By Scott Goldsmith.
Going Private: The 1968 Sale of The Alaska Communication System Research Summary No. 59.
December 1997.
PDF.
Economic Effects of Management Changes for Kenai River Late-Run Sockeye Executive Summary.
January 1996. Based on report of the same title. By multiple authors.
PDF.
What's the Economic Value of Alaska's Healthy Ecosystems? Research Summary No. 61. PDF. March 2001.By
Steve Colt. .
Economics of Sport Fishing in Alaska. . December 1999. Sharman Haley, Matthew Berman, Scott Goldsmith,
Alexandra Hill, and Hongjin Kim
Economic Assessment of Bristol Bay Area National Wildlife Refuges: Alaska Peninsula/ Becharof, Izembek,
Togiak. .December 1998. By Oliver Scott Goldsmith, Alexandra Hill
Gross State Product
ISER's estimates of Alaska GSP since 1961.
Fisheries Studies
Changing Alaska’s Salmon Harvesting System: what are the challenges? November 2004. By
Gunnar Knapp and Fran Ulmer.
Projections of Future Bristol Bay Salmon Prices October 2004. Prepared for the Commercial
Fisheries Entry Commission by Gunnar Knapp.
Economic Considerations in Thinking About United States Marine Aquaculture August
2004. Presentation by Gunnar Knapp to NOAA's Marine Fisheries Advisory Commission.
Recent Presentations on the Alaska Seafood Industry Gunnar Knapp looks at challenges
and opportunities facing Alaska's fisheries
Change, Challenges, and Opportunities for Wild Fisheries A presentation by Gunnar Knapp
Implications of Aquaculture for Wild Fisheries: The Case of Alaska Wild Salmon August
2002. Presentation by Gunnar Knapp.
Effects of the 2002 Chignik Cooperative: A Survey of Chignik Salmon Permit Holders. June 2003.
By Gunnar Knapp, Darla Siver, Patricia DeRoche, and Alexandra Hill
Understanding Alaska Summary: Effects of the Chignik Salmon Cooperative: What the Permit
Holders Say. June 2003. By Gunnar Knapp and Lexi Hill.
A Village Fish Processing Plant: Yes or No? A Planning Handbook . May 2001. By Gunnar Knapp,
Craig Wiese, Jude Henzler and Peter Redmayne.
Please visit:
 www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu
Or
 www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.edu
ANCHORAGE AT 90
Scott Goldsmith
Institute of Social and Economic Research
University of Alaska Anchorage
Groups of Interest:
How Are They Doing?
•Workers
•Children
•Women
•Young Adults
•Families
•Baby Boomers
•Other Households
•Seniors
•Poor
•Cheechakos
•Alaska Natives
•Sourdoughs
•Other Minorities
•Military
Anchorage at 90
Gross Migration: Who Came and
Went 1995 to 2000?
•Overall
•35% more left
•Race
•52% more Whites left
•60% more Asians arrived
•Income
•Movers had lower incomes
•Household Type
•61% more Married Couples Left
•Education
•More folks in the “middle” left
•Age
•Baby boomers & their kids left
Anchorage at 90
Recent Immigrants Are Different
Anchorage at 90
Racial Composition of Civilian
Population in 2000 and 10 Year
Growth
•White
•Ak Native
•Asian
•Black
•Mixed
•Pacific Islands
Share
Growth
73.3%
10%
5.2%
5.2%
5%
1.3%
+4%
???
+27%
+20%
na
415%
•TOTAL
19%
Anchorage at 90
Share of Population in 2000:
Under 10 & BBer
•White
•Asian
•Black
•Ak Native
•Pacific Islands
15%
17%
19%
25%
27%
Anchorage at 90
46%
40%
37%
31%
26%
Language as a Measure of Racial Diversity
Anchorage at 90
Job Growth by Wage: Over 20 Years
An c h o ra g e (re a l w a g e a n d s a la ry in c o m e - w a g e a n d s a la ry
in c o m e > 0 ; fu ll tim e w o rk e rs ; a g e s 2 5 -5 5 )
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
<
50
10 00
,0
15 00
,0
20 00
,0
25 00
,0
30 00
,0
35 00
,0
40 00
,0
45 00
,0
50 00
,0
55 00
,0
60 00
,0
65 00
,0
70 00
,0
75 00
,0
80 00
,0
85 00
,0
90 00
,0
95 00
,
1 0 00
0, 0
10 00
5, 0
11 00
0, 0
11 00
5, 0
12 00
0, 0
12 00
5, 0
13 00
0, 0
13 00
5, 0
14 00
0, 0
14 00
5, 0
15 00
0, 0
00
0
0
1980
1990
Anchorage at 90
2000
Earnings Trend: Native vs. Non-Native
Anchorage at 90
Median HH Income in 2000
•White
•All HH
•Asian
•Black
•Pacific Islander
•Ak Native
$61,800
$57,000
$47,000
$43,000
$36,600
$36,000
•US Total
$41,800
Anchorage at 90
Who was in the Bottom 20% of
HHs in 2000?
•Children being raised by single mothers
•People 65+
•Full Time Workers
•Adults with College Educations
•Residents by Race
•White
12%
•Asian
19%
•Pacific Islander
21%
•Ak Native
27%
•Black
29%
Anchorage at 90
51%
24%
7%
7%
Families and Other Households
Anchorage at 90
Share of Households with Children
in 2000
•White
•All HH
•Asian
•Black
•Ak Native
•Pacific Islands
Anchorage at 90
39%
42%
51%
53%
48%
69%
Young Adults
Median Earnings of High School
Dropouts as a % of College Graduates
80 %
70 %
60 %
50 %
40 %
30 %
20 %
10 %
0%
1980
1990
2000
Anchorage at 90
Baby Boomers Rule in Anchorage!
Anchorage at 90
Seniors are Choosing to Stay
Anchorage at 90
Senior Living Arrangements
Anchorage at 90
Median Income 2000: HH Headed by
Senior
•Anchorage Married Couples over 65
$67,700
•All Anchorage HH
$57,000
•All Anchorage HH over 65
$45,000
•All US HH
$41,800
•All US HH over 65
$26,600
•Anchorage Non-Family HH over 65
$21,600
Anchorage at 90
Take Away Message
•Diversity is Increasing—And it is concentrated among younger residents
•People are still coming to Anchorage to look for opportunity—And finding it
•Economic opportunity means different things to different people
•Ak Natives remain the largest minority—With women finding more
opportunities than men
•Non-wage income and high LFPR have offset declining wage rates—So
household income remains high
•Our income distribution is more equitable than most places and the poverty
rate lower—Thanks in part to the PFD
•Watch the Boomers—What they decide to do will impact us all
•We have matured to the point of having a suburb—And it looks different than
we do
•Young adults today face a tougher job market than their parents
Anchorage at 90
ANCHORAGE AT 90
For additional information on this and other topics related to Alaska’s
economy:
www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.edu
www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu
What are the Key
Considerations for the State?
• Whether it should invest in the pipeline
• What it should do with its royalty gas
• Whether it should change its tax system
The Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline
The proposed Alaska natural gas pipeline to carry North Slope gas to market is one of
the hottest topics in Alaska today. What route the pipeline will follow, how it will be
financed, who will own it, and what role the state government might take in advancing
the project had not yet been decided at the end of 2005. The issues surrounding the
proposed pipeline are complex and hard for the average person to sort out.
In November 2005 the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) hosted a
public forum on the gas pipeline, bringing together representatives of all the groups
with current pipeline proposals, as well as the state government. All the groups made
presentations, which we’re posting here as they become available. ISER itself
prepared a short paper, summarizing some of the main public policy issues; that’s
posted here as well.
We’ll also be posting additional papers on the subject and links to other sites with
information relevant to gas pipeline issues. We want to emphasize that ISER itself
does not advocate any pipeline proposal or any specific public policies related to the
pipeline. Our goal is to provide information we hope helps Alaskans understand who is
proposing what and what the public policy choices are for Alaska.
www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.edu
Forum Presentations
Trans-Canada Presentation
State of Alaska Presentation
Alaska Gasline Port Authority
Presentation by Ken Konrad, BP
ISER Policy Briefs
The Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline: What’s It All
About?
Additional papers and articles
The Past and Future of LNG in Alaska,
by Arlon R. Tussing, November 2005
The Struggle for An Alaska Gas Pipeline: What
Went Wrong? by Arlon R. Tussing, August, 1983
Anchorage Daily News Gasline Questions
Governor Murkowski’s Anchorage Daily
News article
Anchorage Daily News LNG article
www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.edu
www.kidscount.alaska.edu
Upcoming Reports
 Low-Cost, Reliable Power: How Does Anchorage Compare?
Steve Colt.
 Alaska Seniors: Status and Issues. Principal author Scott
Goldsmith.
 Alaska Construction Forecast 2006. Scott Goldsmith and Mary
Killorin
 Health Care Costs in Alaska Mark Foster
 Understanding Alaska 2001-2005. A summary of ISER's special
studies of economic development issues so far.
www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu