Transcript Electricity Technology for a Carbon Constrained World

CERAWEEK®2007
Technology Needs for a
Carbon-Constrained
World
Jeff Sterba
Chairman, President, CEO
PNM Resources, Inc.
February 15, 2007
PNM Resources
2
PNM Resources Generation Portfolio
wind
gas
wind
2%
8%
gas
28%
5%
nuclear
49%
coal
25%
68%
15%
nuclear
MW
MW as of June 2006, MWh generated during 2005
3
MWh
coal
Electricity Technology in a
Carbon-Constrained Future
• Growing scientific and public
opinion that GHG emissions are
contributing to climate change…
• Priority of 110th Congress …
• U.S. responsible for 1/4 of
worldwide CO2 emissions…
• Electric utilities responsible for
1/3 of U.S. CO2 emissions…
• Agreement that technology
solutions are needed…
4
…But what is
technically
feasible???
Comparative
Costs
2010 to 2015
5
Source: EPRI 2007
Comparative
Costs
2020 to 2025
6
Source: EPRI 2007
An extraordinary opportunity
to deploy an affordable,
low-carbon electricity
generation portfolio.
EIA 2007 Annual Energy Outlook - Forecast
3500
U.S. Electric Sector
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)
3000
U.S. Electric Sector CO2 Emissions
2500
2006 level
2000
1500
• Based on preliminary EIA 2007 Annual Energy Outlook data
available as of December 2006.
1000
• EIA analysis includes some efficiency, new renewables, new
nuclear
500
• EIA analysis assumes that no CO2 capture or storage will
emerge due to high costs.
0
1990
7
Source: EPRI 2007
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Technology Targets
technology
EIA 2007 reference
EPRI Analysis Target
load growth ~ +1.5%/yr
load growth ~ +1.1%/yr
30 GWe by 2030
70 GWe by 2030
12.5 GWe by 2030
64 GWe by 2030
no existing plant
upgrades
40% new plant efficiency
by 2020–2030
150 Gwe plant upgrades
46% new plant efficiency
by 2020; 49% in 2030
carbon capture and storage
(CCS)
none
widely available and
deployed after 2020
electric transportation
none
10% of new vehicle sales
by 2017; +2%/yr thereafter
< 0.1% of base load in
2030
5% of base load in 2030
efficiency
renewables
nuclear
advanced coal generation
distributed energy resources
(including distributed solar)
8
Source: EPRI 2007
Benefits of Achieving Efficiency Target
3500
9% reduction in base load by 2030
3000
U.S. Electric Sector
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)
EIA Base Case 2007
2500
2000
1500
Technology
EIA 2007 Reference
Target
Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr
Load Growth ~ +1.0%/yr
30 GWe by 2030
70 GWe by 2030
12.5 GWe by 2030
64 GWe by 2030
40% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020–2030
46% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020; 49% in 2030
Carbon Capture and Storage
None
Widely Deployed After 2020
Electric Transportation
None
10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017;
+2%/yr Thereafter
< 0.1% of Base Load in 2030
5% of Base Load in 2030
Efficiency
Renewables
1000
Nuclear
Advanced Coal Generation
500
Distributed Energy Resources
0
1990
9
Source: EPRI 2007
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Benefits of Achieving Renewables Target
3500
50 GWe new renewables by 2020; +2 GWe/yr thereafter
U.S. Electric Sector
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)
3000
EIA Base Case 2007
2500
2000
Technology
1500
EIA 2007 Reference
Target
Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr
Load Growth ~ +1.0%/yr
30 GWe by 2030
70 GWe by 2030
12.5 GWe by 2030
64 GWe by 2030
40% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020–2030
46% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020; 49% in 2030
Carbon Capture and Storage
None
Widely Deployed After 2020
Electric Transportation
None
10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017;
+2%/yr Thereafter
< 0.1% of Base Load in 2030
5% of Base Load in 2030
Efficiency
Renewables
1000
Nuclear
Advanced Coal Generation
500
Distributed Energy Resources
0
1990
10
Source: EPRI 2007
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Benefit of Achieving Nuclear Generation Target
3500
24 GWe new nuclear by 2020; +4 GWe/yr thereafter
3000
U.S. Electric Sector
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)
EIA Base Case 2007
2500
2000
1500
Technology
EIA 2007 Reference
Target
Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr
Load Growth ~ +1.0%/yr
30 GWe by 2030
70 GWe by 2030
12.5 GWe by 2030
64 GWe by 2030
40% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020–2030
46% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020; 49% in 2030
Carbon Capture and Storage
None
Widely Deployed After 2020
Electric Transportation
None
10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017;
+2%/yr Thereafter
< 0.1% of Base Load in 2030
5% of Base Load in 2030
Efficiency
Renewables
1000
Nuclear
Advanced Coal Generation
500
Distributed Energy Resources
0
1990
11
Source: EPRI 2007
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Benefit of Achieving Advanced Coal Target
3500
46% efficiency by 2020, 49% efficiency by 2030
3000
U.S. Electric Sector
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)
EIA Base Case 2007
2500
2000
1500
Technology
EIA 2007 Reference
Target
Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr
Load Growth ~ +1.0%/yr
30 GWe by 2030
70 GWe by 2030
12.5 GWe by 2030
64 GWe by 2030
40% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020–2030
46% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020; 49% in 2030
Carbon Capture and Storage
None
Widely Deployed After 2020
Electric Transportation
None
10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017;
+2%/yr Thereafter
< 0.1% of Base Load in 2030
5% of Base Load in 2030
Efficiency
Renewables
1000
Nuclear
Advanced Coal Generation
500
Distributed Energy Resources
0
1990
12
Source: EPRI 2007
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Benefit of Exercising the CCS Option
3500
After 2020, all new coal plants capture and
store 90% of their CO2 emissions
3000
U.S. Electric Sector
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)
EIA Base Case 2007
2500
2000
1500
Technology
EIA 2007 Reference
Target
Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr
Load Growth ~ +1.0%/yr
30 GWe by 2030
70 GWe by 2030
12.5 GWe by 2030
64 GWe by 2030
40% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020–2030
46% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020; 49% in 2030
Carbon Capture and Storage
None
Widely Deployed After 2020
Electric Transportation
None
10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017;
+2%/yr Thereafter
< 0.1% of Base Load in 2030
5% of Base Load in 2030
Efficiency
Renewables
1000
Nuclear
Advanced Coal Generation
500
Distributed Energy Resources
0
1990
13
Source: EPRI 2007
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Benefits of Achieving PHEV and DER Targets
3500
5% shift to DER from base load in 2030
PHEV sales = 10% by 2017; 30% by 2027
3000
U.S. Electric Sector
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)
EIA Base Case 2007
2500
2000
1500
Technology
EIA 2007 Reference
Target
Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr
Load Growth ~ +1.0%/yr
30 GWe by 2030
70 GWe by 2030
12.5 GWe by 2030
64 GWe by 2030
40% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020–2030
46% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020; 49% in 2030
Carbon Capture and Storage
None
Widely Deployed After 2020
Electric Transportation
None
10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017;
+2%/yr Thereafter
< 0.1% of Base Load in 2030
5% of Base Load in 2030
Efficiency
Renewables
1000
Nuclear
Advanced Coal Generation
500
Distributed Energy Resources
0
1990
14
Source: EPRI 2007
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
CO2 Reductions…What’s Technically Feasible
3500
3000
U.S. Electric Sector
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)
EIA Base Case 2007
2500
2006 level
2000
Technology
1500
EIA 2007 Reference
Target
Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr
Load Growth ~ +1.0%/yr
30 GWe by 2030
70 GWe by 2030
12.5 GWe by 2030
64 GWe by 2030
40% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020–2030
46% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020; 49% in 2030
Carbon Capture and Storage
None
Widely Deployed After 2020
Electric Transportation
None
10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017;
+2%/yr Thereafter
< 0.1% of Base Load in 2030
5% of Base Load in 2030
Efficiency
Renewables
1000
Nuclear
Advanced Coal Generation
500
Distributed Energy Resources
0
1990
15
Source: EPRI 2007
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Key Technology Challenges
The U.S. electricity infrastructure will need ALL of the following
components to stabilize and then reduce CO2 emissions over
the coming decades:
1. Smart grids and communications infrastructures to enable
end-use efficiency and demand response, distributed
generation, and PHEVs.
2. A grid infrastructure with the capacity and reliability to operate
with 20-30% intermittent renewables in specific regions.
3. Significant expansion of nuclear energy enabled by continued
safe and economic operation of existing nuclear fleet; and by a
solution for managing spent fuel.
4. Commercial-scale coal-based generation units operating with
90+% CO2 capture and storage in a variety of geologies.
16
Source: EPRI 2007
Technology Funding
Need: 2 to 3 $B per year
Potential Mechanism Governance
voluntary industry funding industry control
federal appropriation funding congress/ DOE control
federally sanctioned fee flexible
17