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Forecast of Nuclear Power
Generation until 2100
Asko Vuorinen
Ekoenergo Oy
Based on the Book:
”Planning of Nuclear
Power Systems to Save the
Planet”
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Population Stabilization
at 9 billion
The World's Population Forecast
10,000
Millions
9,000
Rest of Asia Pacific
India
8,000
China
7,000
Africa
6,000
Middle East
5,000
Latin America
Japan
4,000
3,000
Other Europe
Eurasia
European Union
2,000
North America
Biggest growth
in Africa and
India
No growth in
the industrial
world
1,000
-
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Electricity consumption will rise
from 20 to 50 PWh in 2100
Electricity Consumption Forecast
in the World
60,000
Rest of Asia Pacific
50,000
India
China
40,000
Africa
TWh
Middle East
30,000
Biggest growth
in China
Latin America
Moderate growth
in North America
and Europe
Japan
20,000
Other Europe
European Union
10,000
North America
-
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25 PWh saving from the trend
Future Electricity Consumption
in the World
80,000
70,000
Actual
60,000
TWh
50,000
9 a trend
Year
2100
----------------------Trend
75 PWh
Forecast 50 PWh
----------------------Saving
25 PWh
40,000
Forecast
30,000
20,000
10,000
-
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Specific electricity consumption will
rise from 3000 to 5600 kWh/c
Specific electricity consumption
18,000.0
North America
kWh/capita
16,000.0
European Union
14,000.0
Other Europe Eurasia
12,000.0
Japan
10,000.0
Latin America
Middle East
8,000.0
Africa
6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
China
India
Rest of Asia Pacific
World average
-
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Generation planning goals
To limit global warming to 2 degC
 To limit cumulative CO2-emissions of
energy industries to 2500 Gt
 To limit cumulative CO2-emissions of
electricity generation to 820 Gt (34 %)

◦ 0) 2009:1500 kg/capita (500 g/kWh)
◦ 1) 2050: 690 kg/capita (150 g/kWh)
◦ 2) 2100:140 kg/capita (25 g/kWh)
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Priorities in generation planning
1) Renewables (hydro, wind, bio, solar)
2) Combined heat and power (CHP)
3) Nuclear plants, if needed
4) Gas and oil plants, if needed
5) Coal plants, if needed
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Hydro electricity generation
increase from 3 to 6.5 PWh
Hydro Electricity Generation
in the World
Largest
growth
7,000
6,000
5,000
Rest of Asia Pacific
India
in China
and Africa
China
TWh
4,000
3,000
Africa
Middle East
Latin America
2,000
1,000
Japan
Other Europe
European Union
-
North America
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Capacity Additions of Wind Power
Plants were 40 GWe
Source: BP 2011
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Wind / wave capacity additions from
40 to 160 GWe/a
Annual Capacity Additions of
Wind and Wave Power Plants
180
160
Rest of Asia
India
140
China
GWe
120
100
Africa
Middle East
80
Latin America
60
Japan
40
Rest of Europe
European Union
20
North America
0
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Wind and wave generation increase
from 0.3 to 12 PWh
Wind and Wave Electricity Generation
in the World
Rest of Asia Pacific
14,000
India
12,000
China
TWh
10,000
Africa
8,000
Middle East
6,000
Latin America
4,000
Japan
2,000
Other Europe
0
European Union
North America
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Biomass electricity generation
increase from 0.2 to 1.6 PWh
Biomass Electricity Generation
in the World
1,800
Rest of Asia Pacific
1,600
India
1,400
China
TWh
1,200
1,000
Africa
Middle East
800
Latin America
600
Japan
400
Rest of Europe
200
European Union
0
North America
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Solar electricity generation achieve
9 PWh by 2100
Solar Electricity Generation
in the World
10,000
9,000
8,000
TWh
7,000
Rest of Asia/Pacific
India
China
6,000
Africa
5,000
Middle East
4,000
Latin America
3,000
Japan
2,000
Rest of Europe
1,000
European Union
-
North America
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CHP electricity generation increase
from 2 to 6 PWh
CHP Electricity Generation
in the World
7,000
Rest of Asia Pacific
India
6,000
TWh
5,000
4,000
China
Africa
Middle East
Latin America
3,000
2,000
Japan
Rest of Europe
European Union
1,000
North America
-
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Other generation will increase from
14 to 24 PWh by 2050
Electricity Generation Sources
in the World
60,000
50,000
Solar
Wind
40,000
TWh
Hydro
30,000
Biomass
Municipal CHP
20,000
Industrial CHP
10,000
Other
-
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Nuclear Electricity Generation
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Construction starts of nuclear
plants reached 15 GWe in 2010
Source: IAEA PRIS
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Capacity additions of nuclear plants
should increase to 65 GW
Capacity Additions of
Nuclear Power Plants
70,000
60,000
50,000
Rest of Asia Pacific
India
China
Africa
MW
40,000
30,000
Middle East
Latin America
Japan
20,000
10,000
Other Europe
European Union
North America
-
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Nuclear electricity generation will
peak at 19 PWh at 2080
Electricity Generation of
Nuclear Power Plants
25,000
Rest of Asia Pacific
20,000
India
China
TWh
15,000
Africa
Middle East
10,000
Latin America
Japan
5,000
Other Europe
European Union
0
North America
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Elecricity of LWR* power plants
peak at 13 PWh in 2080
Electricity Generation by LWR power plants in
the World
14,000
12,000
Rest of Asia Pacific
India
China
10,000
TWh
8,000
6,000
Africa
Middle East
Latin America
Japan
4,000
2,000
0
Other Europe
European Union
North America
*Light Water Reactor (LWR)
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Uranium demand will reach 16
million tons* by 2100
Cumulative Uranium Demand
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
tons U
12,000,000
New LWR plants
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
Old Nuclear
plants
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
* $130/kgU resources 16 Mt by IAEA
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Electricity generation by breeders
will reach 6 PWh
Electricity Generation by Breeder Reactors
in the World
7,000
6,000
Rest of Asia Pacific
India
China
5,000
TWh
4,000
3,000
Africa
Middle East
Latin America
Japan
2,000
1,000
0
Other Europe
European Union
North America
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Breeders

Types of breeders
◦ Plutonium-239
◦ Thorium-233

Break-even
◦ Uranium price from 130 to $260/kgU
◦ Breeder plant costs + €175/kWe

Beloyarsk breeders
◦ VVER-1000+40 %=+€1000/kWe
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Fossil Fired Power Plants
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Fossil electricity generation peak at
15 PWh in 2021
Fossil Electricity Generation
in the World
16,000
Rest of Asia Pacific
14,000
India
12,000
10,000
China
Africa
TWh
Middle East
8,000
Latin America
6,000
Japan
4,000
Other Europe
2,000
European Union
0
North America
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Oil and gas electricity generation
will peak at 9 PWh in 2040
Oil and Gas Fired Electricity Generation
in the World
10,000
9,000
India
8,000
China
7,000
Africa
6,000
TWh
Rest of Asia Pacific
5,000
4,000
Middle East
Latin America
Japan
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Other Europe
European Union
North America
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Orders of gas turbines and internal
combustion engines
Orders of Gas Turbines and Internal
Combustion Engines (> 0.5 MWe)
140,000
120,000
(MW)
100,000
ICE (0.5-1 MW)
80,000
60,000
ICE (1-60 MW)
GT (>1 MW)
40,000
20,000
-
Source: Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide
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Gas power capacity addition
forecast peak at 100 GWe/a
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Oil power capacity additions will
peak at 30 GWe/a (2020-2050)
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Coal fired electicity generation will
peak at 8 PWh in 2018
TWh
Coal Fired Electricity Generation
in the World
9,000
Rest of Asia Pacific
8,000
India
7,000
China
6,000
Africa
5,000
Middle East
4,000
Latin America
3,000
Japan
2,000
Other Europe
1,000
0
European Union
North America
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CO2-emissions and change in
global temperature
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CO2-emissions of electricity
generation peak at 13 Gt in 2020
CO2-Emissions of Electricity Generation
in the World
14,000
12,000
10,000
Oil and Gas
Mt
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Coal
0
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CO2-emissions of electricity by
countries
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CO2-emissions of electricity per
capita reach1t/capita by 2050*
* Carbon capture and storage needed in NA, China, Middle East, EE
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CO2-emission of electricity per
capita reach 0.2 t/capita in 2100*
* Also carbon capture and storage (CCS) is needed in some areas
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Cumulative CO2-emissions of
electricity reach 850 Gt
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Cumulative CO2-emissions of
energy industry reach 2800 Mt
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CO2-concentration at Mauna Loa
will reach 550 ppm
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Global temperature increase
from 1990 to 2100 will be < 2 C*
* Maximum figures assuming 100 % is anthropogenic
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Actual increase in temperature in
North Finland is about 0.6 degC
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Anthropogenic influence 0.4 C
Solar influence 0.2 C*
* Source: Berger et al.
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Forecasted electricity generation
sources in the world
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Market shares of electricity
generation sources
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Electricity ages (The highest market
share of generation)
Coal age
->2020
 Hydrocarbon age
2021-2040
 Nuclear age
2041-2110
 Wind and wave age 2111-2140
 Solar age
2141
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Capacity additions increase from
200 GWe to 300 GWe/a by 2030
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Market leaders in capacity additions
world wide
Oil and gas
 Wind and wave
 Solar

1990-2040
2040-2070
2070->
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Summary

It is possible
◦ to limit global warming to 2 degC
◦ by limiting CO2-concentration to 550 ppm

How?
◦ Nuclear should be largest source of electricity
in the world 2041-2110
◦ New nuclear plants needed (nuclear CHP and
breeder)
◦ Also renewables, CHP, CCS and CO2-trading
needed
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Reference
Book:
”Planning of Nuclear Power
Systems to Save the Planet”
Author: Asko Vuorinen
Publisher: Ekoenergo Oy
Date: August 2011
Soft cover ,176x250 mm, 304
pages, 149 figures, 100 tables
Price: €20 + sending costs
Orders:
www.optimalpowersystems.com
Contacts:
[email protected]
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