Transcript 129 News Articles

Local Climate Impacts Profile
LCLIP GLOUCESTERSHIRE
Profiling the impact of extreme weather
over ten years
1998- 2008
Where are we
vulnerable now?
How can we adapt
to extreme
weather in the
future?
Methodology
Media Survey
Interviews within Local Authority
Expand process to include district councils
and external partners
•Phase 1: County Council
•Phase 2: District Councils
•Phase 3: External partners, e.g PCT, Police etc
Media Survey
129 Media Articles
65 Unique Weather Events
270 reported impacts
Dominant Extreme Weather Types
Excessive Rainfall/ Flooding
Storms
These two categories account for:
69% of unique weather events, and
77% of reported incidents
Unique Weather Events (1998-2008)
35
30
33
Number of Events
25
20
15
12
9
10
7
5
3
1
0
Storm/ Tornado Excessive Rain/
Flooding
High Temp/
Heatwave
Wind
Weather Type
Frost/ Ice/ Snow Low Temp/ Cold
Spell
Impacts of Extreme Weather
Excessive Rain/ Flooding
Storms/ Hurricanes/ Tornadoes
(High winds)
High temperature/ Heat waves
Frost/ Ice/ Snow (Low Temperatures)
Flooding
1998-2008: 45 media reports
12 unique events
37% of reported impacts
Twin Threat: Flash Flooding
Riverine Flooding
UKCIP02 Projections
• Winters up to 30% wetter by 2080
• Frequency of heavy rainfall events to increase
• Although summers projected to be significantly drier on average,
heavy downpours may account for more of the total
Case Study: Summer 2007
1
(July 20th 2007)
(Longlevens, June 25th 2007)
Rapid Flash flooding
“A Floody Mess”
Waters hit 4ft then recede
completely within 8 hours,
wrecking many properties.
2
“Towns grind to a
halt in the flooding”
Widespread Rapid Flash Flooding
10,000 motorists stranded on flooded M5
500 commuters stranded at Gloucester Train Station
2000 people stay in emergency rest centres
Extreme Riverine Flooding
(July 22nd-23rd 2007)
“Worst day in living memory” Rivers Severn and Avon burst their banks
- Many communities completely cut off by flood waters, inc.Tewkesbury
- 5 deaths, thousands of homes are flooded, emergency services work 24/7
- Mythe Water treatment plant flooded – Walham substation narrowly escapes
- 350,000 people without drinking water for two weeks
3
Property Damage:
Schools: £2.4 million
Non-ed: £135,000
Costs to the Council
Infrastructure:
Highways: £25m+
repairs to roads
Social Services:
Re-housing costs
Looking after the vulnerable
Disruption to Council Business:
Understaffing/ overload
Communication problems
Alt. travel: £21,000,
Closure of Shire Hall
Pressure on services:
Fire and Rescue: £233,000 overtime
Waste: Cost of clean-up, Cost of extra waste
Unforeseen issues
Recovery Costs
•
£50m
And counting…
Tewkesbury BC Residual Waste Arisings 2006/07 compared to 2007/08
2,900
2,700
tonnes
2,500
2,300
2,100
1,900
1,700
1,500
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
2006/07
2,290
2,328
2,312
2,192
2,272
2,285
2007/08
2,227
2,222
2,147
2,233
2,660
2,071
Waste Management Department:
£206,000 to dispose of extra waste generated by floods
Costs of clean-up? Costs of Collection?
Publicity and outreach department shutdown for two weeks- cost?
Monthly Call Volumes to Gloucestershire Highways 07/08
9000
June/ July 2007
January 2008
Huge spike in call
volumes in wake of
catastrophic flooding
8000
7783
Fresh floods trigger record call
volumes from customers fearful
of a repeat of summer 07
7500
Call Volume
7000
6000
5000
4000
3487
3000
Apr07
May07
Jun- Jul-07 Aug07
07
Sep07
Oct07
Nov- Dec07
07
Jan08
Feb08
Mar08
Apr08
May08
Jun- Jul-08 Aug08
08
Month
Council Contact Centre Overwhelmed
Abandonment rate for Council Direct hits 10.8% (7.8% ave.)
Communities in Crisis
5 Lives lost
Many lives saved
Homes wiped out
Families lost everything
350,000 without water
Inches from catastrophic loss of power
•Health risk- stagnant water- two weeks without working toilets
•Agriculture- crops wiped out, winter-fodder destroyed
•Impact on business and tourism- No power, no water
Gloucestershire perceived as ‘closed for business’
•Long-term psychological impact?
•Long-term viability of communities that flood repeatedly?
Adaptation implications
Fluvial Flooding (Rivers)
•Restrict flood-plain development
(affordable homes or poverty traps?)
•Intelligent flood defence- demountable
barriers, low intensity land-use, expansion
of wetland areas (nature map) - dialogue
with farming community
•Multi-agency flood response
•Predictable impacts- response planning
Pluvial (Flash) Flooding
•Unpredictable, rapid impacts
•very little time to react
•Potentially more dangerous
(M5 flooding)
•Researching hotspots
•Focus on community resilience
Dealing with psychological impact is an
important element of community resilience
Storms (inc. high winds)
1998-2008: 55 media reports
44 unique events
42% of reported impacts
Threat to life, disruption to roads and power
UKCIP02 Projections
• Heavier winter precipitation expected to become more frequent
• Winter storms and mild, wet and windy winter weather are
expected to become more frequent
Impact of storms on GCC
Highways
Department/ Unit
Travel disruption
Business continuity
Removing
obstructions
Roadside
maintenance
Legal
Civil liability claims
Waste
Potential shutdown of
landfill sites
All Departments
Health and Safety
External events
CAC/ CYP
Social services
Power cuts
Safeguarding
the vulnerable
Property Services
Damage to buildings
Countywide Impact
36 incidences of power failure:
• 20th February 2008:
3,469 homes- Cheltenham
• 12th January 2005:
17,000 homes
• 27th October 2002:
33,000 homes (Forest of Dean)
•15th December 2000:
•29th October 2000:
Storm knocks out power at nursing home
6 schools close
Fire Service/ Police: 700 call-outs
Transport
14 Roads closures due to fallen trees
Real figure much higher
e.g, M5 closed
Electricity cables blown onto carriageway 3rd August 2004
Train services delayed/ cancelled
Sapperton tunnel collapses after storm knocking out services in Stroud valleys for
8 weeks- 1st October 2000
Cancellation of public events
RAF International Air Tattoo
14th July 2008
Cheltenham Racing Festival
Day 2- 12th March 2008
Bonfire Night
Gloucester Docks 2000
Jousting CANCELLED
Berkeley Castle July 2007
Near misses
!!! Pub sign crashes through window of parked car !!!
11th March 2008
!!! Mini-tornado, Chelt: 30ft pane of glass blown out !!!
9th November 2007
!!! Mini-tornado, Tuffley: hurls roof tiles, debris, smashes windows !!!
12th December 2006
!!! Tree wrecks summerhouse and garden sheds !!!
Cheltenham 2nd June 2006
!!! Falling tree narrowly misses drivers on A417 !!!
15th March 2004
!!! Flag Pole peril over King’s Square !!!
15th November 2003
Adapting to storms
Public information
Ensure that external fittings (signs etc) and windows are resistant to high wind
Emphasise the dangers of driving in high winds/ storms, esp. in F.o.D
Stay indoors if possible
Tree stability surveys may not be feasible
Designing resilience into new developments
Ensuring that council properties are resistant (secure roofs, fittings etc.)
More support for event organisers
Tourism marketing
Prepare for the worst
Ensure emergency plans in place to deal with hurricanes, severe tornadoes
High Temperatures
1998-2008: 27 media reports
9 unique events
16% of reported impacts
Benefits shouldn’t blind us to the potentially severe
negative impacts of prolonged hot spells
UKCIP02 Projections
• Hotter, drier summers
• Gloucestershire average temperature to
increase by up to 3°C by 2050 and 5°C by 2080
Impact of heat waves on GCC
CAC/ CYP
School conditions
Vulnerable people
(home/ day centres)
Department/ Unit
Health and Safety
Protecting workers from
sunburn/ heat stroke
Fire and Rescue
Transport
- Air conditioning
Highways
Increase in fires
(Esp. barn fires)
Heat damage to roads
Gritting required
Threat to infrastructure
Roadside maintenance
Traffic signals
Waste
Property Services
Environment health issues
- Ventilation/ air conditioning
Countywide benefits
2003 HEAT WAVE (August 4th-13th)
“We’re so grape-ful”
2003- Vineyards enjoy vintage year
“86 degrees and it’s going to get much hotter”
Record visits to swimming pools and water parks
“County is cashing in on visitors”
Bourton-on-the-Water Model village
= Visitor numbers Up 4%
Future Opportunities
Agriculture: Inc. growing season - better yields, new crops
Tourism: Gloucestershire could benefit from extra summer visitors
as Italy, Spain, Greece etc become uncomfortably hot
Negative impacts
Lives at risk
Risk to elderly population
Heightened skin cancer risk
Increased threat of
fire
Especially in forest of dean
HEAT WAVES
“Too hot to shop”
High street trade suffers (Aug1999)
Impact on biodiversity
Loss of Beech trees
Heat & Drought
Water shortages
Threat to crops
Threat to animals/ biodiversity
Potential link to crime?
Adapting to extreme heat
Planning:
Building design- air conditioning/ ventilation in schools and other council properties
Heat wave plans:
Lists of vulnerable people, public warnings, sun protection for staff
Horizon scanning:
High temp, dry conditions, high winds = forest fire threat to Forest of Dean?
Exploring opportunities:
Agriculture/ tourism/ trade = providing stakeholders with accurate projections
Waste:
Accelerated rotting of waste in summer - need for seasonal waste collection? e.g weekly in
summer, fortnightly in winter
Frost, Ice, Snow
•1998-2008: 6 media reports
4 unique events
5% of reported impacts
Threat of extreme cold weather will recede
…more likely to catch authorities off guard?
Stroud Valleys most vulnerable
UKCIP02 Projections
• Warmer winters: fewer cold days, snowfall increasingly rare
• Cold snaps shorter in duration
Impact of ice/snow on GCC
CAC/ CYP
- Schools Closures
- Fuel poverty
Department/ Unit
All Departments
Under-staffing if roads
badly affected by snow
Transport
- School transport
Highways
- Gritting/ snow ploughs
- Winter maintenance
Property Services
- Freeze-thaw damage
Heavy Snow in Stroud
(November 2005)
•400 abandoned vehicles across road network
police use 4x4s to reach stranded motorists
•38 GCC gritters work through the night to clear roads
•12 primary schools close
Car skids into tree on B4078
Mother and Baby killed (3rd January 2001)
Water Mains Pipe Bursts in freezing conditions- supplies cut
to 2000 homes (4th January 2002)
Adapting to extreme
Reduced spend on gritters,
winter maintenance
Reduced spend on heating council
properties
Important to retain capacity to respond to
unseasonable snowfall- e.g April 2000
Extreme Weather - Key Messages
Adaptation at service level
Each department to consider more fully the implications of extreme weather
and broader climate changes for its operations and objectives
This should form and integral element of forward planning and risk management
Future proof planning
Extreme weather resilience to be given high priority within planning process alongside
broader climate change objectives
Importance of Local Resilience Forum
Regular LA liaison with emergency services and utilities to ensure that energy and
water supplies are not threatened by extreme weather events
Public information
As climate change projections become more detailed key messages should be
communicated to business and individuals to better enable them to adapt to extreme
weather and climate change in Gloucestershire
Thank you for listening
Thank you