Transcript Volume v. Value: A Judicious Review

Volume v. Value: A judicious review
Judicious: marked by the exercise of good
judgment or common sense in practical matters
Jim Goudie
Mario Di Lucca
Ken Polsson
The Outline
• What is tree volume?
– Standing
– Log
– Lumber - LRF
• What is tree value?
–
–
–
–
Juvenile wood
Knots
Relative density (specific gravity)
Lumber
• What is stand volume?
– Total volume
– Merchantable volume
– Operational adjustment factors
• What is stand value?
– Value chain
– Benefits
– Costs
• Silviculture
• Harvesting
• Manufacturing
– Interest rate
• SYLVER
– FAN$IER
• Example
– Precommercial thinning
• Risk (MPB)
• What is the verdict?
What is tree volume?
“Open grown”
“Stand grown (S2)”
IDFdk1-03
Age=58
Ht=14.9m
DBH=26cm
Site index=16.5m
Crown=77%
“Stand grown (S3)”
SBSmw 01
Age=52
Ht=16.0m
DBH=19cm
Site index=15.2m
Crown=59%
Not seen: “Stand grown (S1)”
Age=51
Ht=16.2m
DBH=23cm
Site index=15.4m
Crown=70%
Age=73
Ht=26.9m
DBH=26cm
Site index=23.2m
Crown=38%
What is tree volume?
16
Open
grown
14
12
10cm dib
top
10
Merchantable
Total
volume
8
Outside bark
Live crown
Inside bark
6
4
2
30cm stump
0
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
4
What is tree volume?
Stand30grown similar
DBH same area (S1)
30 grown (OG)
Open
30
Stand
grown
similar
Stand
grown
with
similar
DBH
elsewhere
DBH
in older
stand(s3)
(S3)
25
25
25
25
20
20
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
0
0
20
-20
15
70%
77%
-20
Stand30grown similar
ht. same area (S2)
15
59%
10
10
5
5
5
0
0
0
Conical
shape
0
20
-20
0
20
38%
-20.0
0.0
20.0
5
Kozak taper equation predictions
Stand30grown similar
DBH same area (s1)
30 grown
Open
25
Stand30grown similar
ht. same area (s2)
25
Stand 30
grown similar
DBH elsewhere (s3)
25
25
Predicted
inside bark
20
20
20
20
15
15
15
15
10
10
10
10
5
5
5
5
0
-20
0
0
20
-20
0
0
20
-20
Measured
inside bark
0
0
20
-20.0
0.0
20.0
6
0.8
Total stem volume
S3
Predicted volume (m3)
0.6
0.4
OG
S1
S2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
Actual volume (m3)
0.6
0.8
7
3.0
3.0
Total stem volume
2.5
Predicted volume (m3)
Predicted volume (m3)
2.5
Merchantable stem volume
2.0
1.5
1.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Actual volume (m3)
3.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Actual volume (m3)
3.0
8
Prediction bias
Merchantable stem volume
0.3
0.2
Residual (Observed-Kozak)
Residual (Observed-Kozak)
0.2
0.1
Residual (m3)
Residual (m3)
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
(Height-1.3)/DBHob (m/cm)
1.5
10
20
30
40 50 60 70
Percent crown
80
90 100
9
Statistic
Crown class
Site index (m)
Total age
DBHob (cm)
Dib @ 5.3m (cm)
Form class
Total height (m)
Height To crown (m)
Percent crown
Total (m3)
Merch.1 (m3)
Merch/total
Vol/basal area (m3/m2)
Outside bark (m3)
Inside/outside bark
Volume
Juvenile wood (m3)
JW/Total
Cylindrical volume
Cylindrical form factor
Log volume (m3)
lumber volume (bd.ft)
Lumber recovery factor (bd.ft/m3)
Whole-tree relative density (kg/m3)
1
10cm Dib top, 30cm stump
Tree
OG
O
16.5
58
26.0
18.2
70
14.94
3.46
77
0.32
S1
D
15.39
51
22.7
18.0
81
16.16
4.86
70
0.29
S2
C
15.19
52
18.6
15.0
81
15.97
6.48
59
0.20
S3
D
23.16
73
26.1
21.6
83
26.90
16.68
38
0.62
0.30
0.96
5.93
0.36
0.88
0.28
0.89
0.79
0.40
0.28
76.0
251.9
0.28
0.95
7.24
0.33
0.89
0.24
0.80
0.65
0.45
0.25
76.0
272.6
0.19
0.92
7.52
0.22
0.93
0.17
0.82
0.43
0.47
0.18
50.7
268.5
0.60
0.97
11.51
0.67
0.91
0.20
0.32
1.44
0.43
0.57
174.7
292.8
0.377
0.396
0.409
0.498
10
Statistic
Crown class
Site index (m)
Total age
DBHob (cm)
Dib @ 5.3m (cm)
Form class
Total height (m)
Height To crown (m)
Percent crown
Total (m3)
Merch.1 (m3)
Merch/total
Vol/basal area (m3/m2)
Outside bark (m3)
Inside/outside bark
Volume
Juvenile wood (m3)
JW/Total
Cylindrical volume
Cylindrical form factor
Log volume (m3)
lumber volume (bd.ft)
Lumber recovery factor (bd.ft/m3)
Whole-tree relative density (kg/m3)
1
10cm Dib top, 30cm stump
Tree
OG
O
16.5
58
26.0
18.2
70
14.94
3.46
77
0.32
S1
D
15.39
51
22.7
18.0
81
16.16
4.86
70
0.29
S2
C
15.19
52
18.6
15.0
81
15.97
6.48
59
0.20
S3
D
23.16
73
26.1
21.6
83
26.90
16.68
38
0.62
0.30
0.96
5.93
0.36
0.88
0.31
1.00
0.79
0.40
0.28
76.0
251.9
0.28
0.95
7.24
0.33
0.89
0.28
0.95
0.65
0.45
0.25
76.0
272.6
0.19
0.92
7.52
0.22
0.93
0.20
0.97
0.43
0.47
0.18
50.7
268.5
0.60
0.97
11.51
0.67
0.91
0.19
0.31
1.44
0.43
0.57
174.7
292.8
0.377
0.396
0.409
0.498
11
85
Form class
80
75
70
65
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Percent crown
65
70
75
80
12
1.00
0.95
0.90
Form class
0.85
S3
0.80
S2
S1
0.75
OG
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent crown
13
Statistic
Crown class
Site index (m)
Total age
DBHob (cm)
Dib @ 5.3m (cm)
Form class
Total height (m)
Height To crown (m)
Percent crown
Total (m3)
Merch.1 (m3)
Merch/total
Vol/basal area (m3/m2)
Outside bark (m3)
Inside/outside bark
Volume
Juvenile wood (m3)
JW/Total
Cylindrical volume
Cylindrical form factor
Log volume (m3)
lumber volume (bd.ft)
Lumber recovery factor (bd.ft/m3)
Whole-tree relative density (kg/m3)
1
10cm Dib top, 30cm stump
Tree
OG
O
16.5
58
26.0
18.2
70
14.94
3.46
77
0.32
S1
D
15.39
51
22.7
18.0
81
16.16
4.86
70
0.29
S2
C
15.19
52
18.6
15.0
81
15.97
6.48
59
0.20
S3
D
23.16
73
26.1
21.6
83
26.90
16.68
38
0.62
0.30
0.96
5.93
0.36
0.88
0.28
0.89
0.79
0.40
0.28
76.0
251.9
0.28
0.95
7.24
0.33
0.89
0.24
0.80
0.65
0.45
0.25
76.0
272.6
0.19
0.92
7.52
0.22
0.93
0.17
0.82
0.43
0.47
0.18
50.7
268.5
0.60
0.97
11.51
0.67
0.91
0.20
0.32
1.44
0.43
0.57
174.7
292.8
0.377
0.396
0.409
0.498
14
12
Total volume/basal area (m3/m2)
11
S3
10
9
S2
8
S1
7
OG
6
5
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Percent crown
65
70
75
80
15
18.0
16.0
Volume/basal area (m3/m2)
14.0
S3
12.0
10.0
S2
8.0
S1
OG
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent crown
16
Statistic
Crown class
Site index (m)
Total age
DBHob (cm)
Dib @ 5.3m (cm)
Form class
Total height (m)
Height To crown (m)
Percent crown
Total (m3)
Merch.1 (m3)
Merch/total
Vol/basal area (m3/m2)
Outside bark (m3)
Inside/outside bark
Juvenile wood (m3)
Volume
JW/Total
Cylindrical volume
Cylindrical form factor
Log volume (m3)
lumber volume (bd.ft)
Lumber recovery factor (bd.ft/m3)
Whole-tree relative density (kg/m3)
1
10cm Dib top, 30cm stump
Tree
OG
O
16.5
58
26.0
18.2
70
14.94
3.46
77
0.32
S1
D
15.4
51
22.7
18.0
81
16.16
4.86
70
0.29
S2
C
15.2
52
18.6
15.0
81
15.97
6.48
59
0.20
S3
D
23.2
73
26.1
21.6
83
26.90
16.68
38
0.62
0.30
0.96
5.93
0.36
0.88
0.28
0.89
0.79
0.40
0.28
76.0
251.9
0.28
0.95
7.24
0.33
0.89
0.24
0.80
0.65
0.45
0.25
76.0
272.6
0.19
0.92
7.52
0.22
0.93
0.17
0.82
0.43
0.47
0.18
50.7
268.5
0.60
0.97
11.51
0.67
0.91
0.20
0.32
1.44
0.43
0.57
174.7
292.8
0.377
0.396
0.409
0.498
17
400
Lumber recovery(bd. Ft./m3)
350
S3
300
S1
S2
OG
250
200
150
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percent crown
70
80
90
100
18
400
350
Lumber recovery(bd. Ft./m3)
300
250
S2
S1
S3
OG
Percent
crown
20
200
40
60
150
80
Bd.ft./m3 = 220.5 + 117.1 *(1-exp(-0.1013*(DBHib-10.0)+0.00698*percent_crown))
R2 =0.54, mse= 1260
100
100
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
DBHib(cm)
35
40
45
50
19
The Outline
• What is tree volume?
– Standing
– Log
– Lumber - LRF
• What is tree value?
–
–
–
–
Juvenile wood
Knots
Relative density (specific gravity)
Lumber
• What is stand volume?
– Total volume
– Merchantable volume
– Operational adjustment factors
• What is stand value?
– Value chain
– Benefits
– Costs
• Silviculture
• Harvesting
• Manufacturing
– Interest rate
• SYLVER
– FAN$IER
• Example
– Precommercial thinning
• Risk (MPB)
• What is the verdict?
Juvenile (crown-associated) wood
•
•
•
•
•
shorter tracheid length
greater S2 microfibril angle
greater lignin content
greater or lower relative density
usually indicated by relative density trends but
better machines are now permitting cell
measurements at a more reasonable cost
(Paprican)
Wood quality research
Tree= J93, height=1.30m
Relative density (gm/cm3)
Locating juvenile-mature transition age for each height.
600
550
Radius A
500
Radius B
Predicted
450
Join point 1
400
Join point 2
Mature wood
350
300
0
50
100
Age from pith (years)
150
3.5
600
Radius
3
550
A
Relative density (gm/cm3)
2.5
500
2
450
α1
B
1.5
Relative density
400
1
350
0.5
α2
α1
300
0
25
50
75
Age from pith (years)
100
125
0
150
3
Relative
density
(gm/cm3)
(degrees)
angle
Microfibril
25
A
20
2.5
2
α1
15
1.5
B
Microfibril angle
10
1
5
0.5
α1
0
0
25
50
Age from pith (years)
75
0
100
Tracheid length (mm)
30
SYLVER (TASS)
Simulations can predict
long-term effects on
trees, stands and value
Un-pruned
Pruned
Clear
Clear
Statistic
Crown class
Site index (m)
Total age
DBHob (cm)
Dib @ 5.3m (cm)
Form class
Total height (m)
Height To crown (m)
Percent crown
Total (m3)
Merch.1 (m3)
Merch/total
Vol/basal area (m3/m2)
Outside bark (m3)
Inside/outside bark
Volume
Juvenile wood (m3)
JW/Total
Cylindrical volume
Cylindrical form factor
Log volume (m3)
lumber volume (bd.ft)
Lumber recovery factor (bd.ft/m3)
Whole-tree relative density (kg/m3)
1
10cm Dib top, 30cm stump
Tree
OG
O
16.5
58
26.0
18.2
70
14.94
3.46
77
0.32
S1
D
15.39
51
22.7
18.0
81
16.16
4.86
70
0.29
S2
C
15.19
52
18.6
15.0
81
15.97
6.48
59
0.20
S3
D
23.16
73
26.1
21.6
83
26.90
16.68
38
0.62
0.30
0.96
5.93
0.36
0.88
0.28
0.89
0.79
0.40
0.28
76.0
251.9
0.28
0.95
7.24
0.33
0.89
0.24
0.80
0.65
0.45
0.25
76.0
272.6
0.19
0.92
7.52
0.22
0.93
0.17
0.82
0.43
0.47
0.18
50.7
268.5
0.60
0.97
11.51
0.67
0.91
0.20
0.32
1.44
0.43
0.57
174.7
292.8
0.377
0.396
0.409
0.498
26
Juvenile wood
1.00
OG
0.90
Proportion Juvenile wood
S2
S1
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
S3
0.30
0.20
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Percent crown
65
70
75
80
27
Predicting the transition between JW and MW
2
Tree Age
100
Height relative
to crown base
75
50
1
25
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Crown length (m)
Mansfield, S.D., Parish, R., Goudie, J.W., Kang, K.-Y., and Ott, P. 2007. The effects of crown
ratio on the transition from juvenile to mature wood production in lodgepole pine in western
Canada. Can. J. For. Res. 37 1450-1459.
Juvenile/total volume
1.0
Proportion juvenile wood
0.9
OG
S2
0.8
S1
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
S3
0.3
0.2
0
20
Quesnel
40
Kamloops
S3
60
Percent crown
OG, S1, S2
Forintek
80
Cranbrook
100
120
Regression
29
1.6
Juvenile wood volume (m3)
1.4
1.2
Percent
crown
1.0
90
70
50
30
0.8
10
0.6
OG
0.4
0.2
S2
S1
S3
JWvol=0.2295 * TOTvol0.8667 * PercentCrown0.2105
R2=0.673
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Total bole volume (m3)
2.0
2.5
30
Average branch diameter
4.0
OG
Average branch diameter (cm)
3.5
3.0
S1
2.5
2.0
S2
1.5
S3
Nemec, A.F.L., Goudie, J.W., and Parish, R. 2010. A Gamma-Poisson
model for vertical location and frequency of buds on lodgepole pine
(Pinus contorta) leaders. Can. J. For. Res. 40 2049–2058.
1.0
0.5
Nemec, A.F.L., Parish, R., and Goudie, J.W. In press. Modelling number,
vertical distribution, and size of live branches on coniferous tree species
in British Columbia . Can. J. For. Res.
0.0
0
2
4
6
8
Distance from tree top (m)
10
12
14
31
5.0
Kamloops trees
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
Average branch diameter (cm)
Average branch diameter (cm)
5.0
OG
3.0
S1
2.5
2.0
S2
1.5
3.5
3.0
2.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
5
10
15
Distance from top (m)
20
S3
2.0
1.0
0
Quesnel trees
0
5
10
15
Distance from top (m)
20
32
Statistic
Crown class
Site index (m)
Total age
DBHob (cm)
Dib @ 5.3m (cm)
Form class
Total height (m)
Height To crown (m)
Percent crown
Total (m3)
Merch.1 (m3)
Merch/total
Vol/basal area (m3/m2)
Outside bark (m3)
Inside/outside bark
Volume
Juvenile wood (m3)
JW/Total
Cylindrical volume
Cylindrical form factor
Log volume (m3)
lumber volume (bd.ft)
Lumber recovery factor (bd.ft/m3)
Whole-tree relative density (kg/m3)
1
10cm Dib top, 30cm stump
Tree
OG
O
16.5
58
26.0
18.2
70
14.94
3.46
77
0.32
S1
D
15.39
51
22.7
18.0
81
16.16
4.86
70
0.29
S2
C
15.19
52
18.6
15.0
81
15.97
6.48
59
0.20
S3
D
23.16
73
26.1
21.6
83
26.90
16.68
38
0.62
0.30
0.96
5.93
0.36
0.88
0.28
0.89
0.79
0.40
0.28
76.0
251.9
0.28
0.95
7.24
0.33
0.89
0.24
0.80
0.65
0.45
0.25
76.0
272.6
0.19
0.92
7.52
0.22
0.93
0.17
0.82
0.43
0.47
0.18
50.7
268.5
0.60
0.97
11.51
0.67
0.91
0.20
0.32
1.44
0.43
0.57
174.7
292.8
0.377
0.396
0.409
0.498
33
S3
Whole-tree relative density (kg/m3)
0.50
0.45
S2
S1
0.40
OG
0.35
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Percent crown
65
70
75
80
34
0.55
Whole-tree relative density
0.50
S3
0.45
0.40
S2
S1
OG
0.35
0.30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percent crown
70
80
90
100
35
0.55
S3
Whole-tree relative density (kg/m3)
0.50
0.45
Percent
crown
S2 S1
0.40
10
30
50
OG
0.35
70
90
0.30
Tree_RD=0.5942 *(e (-.2635*average_vi0.1639)) -0.0848*((percent_crown_base)/100)2.8846
R2=0.280
0.25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Volume increment (dm3)
36
0.55
0.50
Whole-tree relative density (kg/m3)
S3
0.45
S2
0.40
S1
OG
0.35
TreeRD = 0.3275 * e(0.2513 *HT_DBH)
R2=0.368
0.30
TreeRD = 0.3481 * e(0.1750 *HT_DBH) *(FV/(SA+1))-0.0226
R2= 0.485
0.25
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
(Height-1.3)/DBHOB (m/cm)
37
Effect of relative
density on wood strength
(PLi)
MOE v. Relative density
38
Effect of relative
density on wood strength
(PLi)
MOR v. MOE
39
Effect of stocking on wood strength
This table shows a colourcoded predicted mean MOE
values for widely-space
lumber taken from the
Sulfur Springs site. MOE is
a function of DBH and BH
relative density. Large trees
produce weaker wood. No
lumber taken from the 35
and 40 cm classes achieved
select structural (SS) grade
(green area).
Select structural lumber
700
Percent
crown
10
Select structural lumber (bd. Ft.)
600
30
500
50
70
400
90
300
200
S3
100
S12
0
0.0
Quesnel
S2
OG
0.5
Kamloops
1.0
1.5
Bole volume (m3)
S3
OG,S1,S3
10
2.0
30
50
2.5
70
90
41
450
Based on Madison's SPF prices for #2 btr
March 28, 2012
400
Lumber value ($/MBF)
350
300
2x4
250
2x6
2x8
200
2x10
150
100
Premium adjustments from Kellogg 1989 for green lumber.
50
SS
#1
#2
#3
#4
Lumber Grade
42
300
300
No JW adjustment
JW adjusted
Prop.JW
0.2
250
250
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
200
Lumber value ($)
Lumber value ($)
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Bole merch. volume
2.0
(m3)
2.5
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Bole merch. volume
2.0
2.5
3.0
(m3)
43
The Outline
• What is tree volume?
– Standing
– Log
– Lumber - LRF
• What is tree value?
–
–
–
–
Juvenile wood
Knots
Relative density (specific gravity)
Lumber
• What is stand volume?
– Total volume
– Merchantable volume
– Operational adjustment factors
• What is stand value?
– Value chain
– Benefits
– Costs
• Silviculture
• Harvesting
• Manufacturing
– Interest rate
• SYLVER
– FAN$IER
• Example
– Precommercial thinning
• Risk (MPB)
• What is the verdict?
Merchantable stand volume
140
120
100
80
60
40
42
20
27
0
18
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Total age
Volume/ha (m3, 10cm top, 30cm stump)
EP
EP 660
660 -- 17.5
12.5
no diameter
cm DBH limit
limit
PL4.0-m
4.0-m initial spacing
PL
spacing
40
DBH class (cm)
45
Volume comparison
180
700
EP 660
PL - 1.5m
4.0m spacing
160
600
MPB attack
140
Volume/ha
500
120
400
100
Cumulative
Total
80
300
12.5+
17.5+
60
200
40
100
20
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Total Age
age
46
Espacement effects
700
500
180
120
EPEP
660
660
PLPL
- Total
- 22.5cm+
12.5cm+
17.5cm+
Volume
Volume/ha
450
160
600
100
400
140
500
350
120
80
MPB attack
Initial
spacing
300
400
100
250
60
80
300
200
1.5m
2.1m
3.0m
60
40
150
200
40
100
20
100
20
50
4.0m
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Total age
47
Spacing effects
200
90
60
Gregg burn (Hinton, AB) spacing trials
Total
12.5cm+
17.5cm+
volume
180
80
50
160
70
Volume/ha
140
60
40
PCT
spacing
120
50
100
30
40
80
1.1m
786% “response”!
1.6m
2.2m
3.2m
20
30
60
4.5m
20
40
10
10
20
00
00
55
10
10
15
15
20
20
25
25
Total
Totalage
age
30
30
35
35
40
45
48
Coastal FD espacement trials
1000
900
UBC espacement trials - Fdc
Total
12.5cm+
17.5cm+
volume
900
800
800
700
Initial
Spacing (m)
Volume/ha
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
0.91
1.83
2.74
3.65
300
300
4.57
200
200
100
100
00
00
55
10
10
15
15
20
20
25
25
30
30
Total
Totalage
age
35
35
40
40
45
50
49
900
Fdc compared
compared to
Fdc
toPl
Pl
12.5cm+
17.5cm+
800
FDc (UBC)
700
Volume/ha
600
500
PL (EP 660)
400
300
200
100
0
0
5
10
15
20
Top height (m)
25
30
35
40
50
Operational adjustment factors
• Statistically sound monitoring (the best estimate of
operational conditions) is in its infancy in BC, therefore
the model calibration data base is necessarily primarily
research trials.
• Sites were purposively chosen, carefully controlled
treatments were applied, “cleaning” occurred to reduce
unexplained variation and, were frequently abandoned if
damaged by confounding agent (e.g., wind, disease..)
• We need to predict the yield of operational conditions.
• OAFs (typically .80-.85) are designed to do that, but they
are based on limited data
51
The Outline
• What is tree volume?
– Standing
– Log
– Lumber - LRF
• What is tree value?
–
–
–
–
Juvenile wood
Knots
Relative density (specific gravity)
Lumber
• What is stand volume?
– Total volume
– Merchantable volume
– Operational adjustment factors
• What is stand value?
– Value chain
– Benefits
– Costs
• Silviculture
• Harvesting
• Manufacturing
– Interest rate
• SYLVER
– FAN$IER
• Example
– Precommercial thinning
• Risk (MPB)
• What is the verdict?
Stand value
• The “value chain” is anything that affects the
value of wood products from the “plant to the
plank”.
• Costs:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Establishment costs
Site preparation
Silviculture costs
Fixed costs
Harvesting costs
Manufacturing costs
53
Stand value
• Benefits:
– Log quality
• Rings/cm, knot size, species, taper
– Wood quality
• Lumber
• Veneer
• Chips
– Other
• Carbon
• Non-timber
• Discount Rate
54
Wood Quality:
• The suitability of wood for a particular end-use (Josza
and Middleton 1994)
• Tree and wood quality refers to specific characteristics
that affect the value recovery chain from harvesting of
trees to manufacturing and grade recovery of specific
products (Zhang 1997)
Wood Quality:
• Wood quality components:
– Intended product
– Relative wood density (specific gravity)
– Ring width
– Microfibril angle
– Fiber length
– Knot size and distribution
– Spiral grain angle
– Chemical composition (extractives)
Net Present Value=discounted benefits-costs
• The applicable discount rate for a financial analysis is the rate
the investor (you, your client, your company, the government,
etc.) can earn in their best comparable alternate investment
– Could include inflation, but usually doesn’t
– Includes risk, liquidity, transactions costs, taxes and the time
period of the investment
» Note - a dollar invested at 4% in the year 0 would be
worth $1.87*1034 in 2012 AD
• NPV brings all future costs and benefits to the same time, the
present, because a dollar today is worth more than a dollar
tomorrow.
• Helps to rank alternate forest investments
The Outline
• What is tree volume?
– Standing
– Log
– Lumber - LRF
• What is tree value?
–
–
–
–
Juvenile wood
Knots
Relative density (specific gravity)
Lumber
• What is stand volume?
– Total volume
– Merchantable volume
– Operational adjustment factors
• What is stand value?
– Value chain
– Benefits
– Costs
• Silviculture
• Harvesting
• Manufacturing
– Interest rate
• SYLVER
– FAN$IER
• Example
– Precommercial thinning
• Risk (MPB)
• What is the verdict?
SYLVER(1986-2010)
Environmental
Factors
Bucking
Specs.
Sawmill
Layout
Grading
Specs.
Costs and
Prices
Site
Disease
Insects
Animals
Log Value
-Length
-Diameter
-Taper
Quad band
Arbor gang
Edger
Trimmer
Knots
Log diameter
Juvenile/
Mature wood
Forestry and
harvesting
Lumber and
chips
TASS
Buck
Grade
FAN$Y
Sawsim
Interpret
Tree file
Log file
Lumber file
Product file
Evaluation file
Height
Diameter
Quality
Length
Diameter
Quality
Dimensions
Juveinile
Wood
Graded
Boards and
Chips
Revenue and
Discounted
Value
Silvicultural
treatments
Lumber
Specs.
Planting
Spacing
Fertilizing
Pruning
Thickness
Width
Length
Wane
Decision
User imput
Logging
chance
Discount rate
Haul distance
District
TIPSY/TIPSYEconomist
BatchTIPSY
Timber supply model
SYLVER(2011)
Environmental
Factors
Bucking
Specs.
Sawmill
Layout
Grading
Specs.
Costs and
Prices
Site
Disease
Insects
Animals
Log Value
-Length
-Diameter
-Taper
Quad band
Arbor gang
Edger
Trimmer
Knots
Log diameter
Juvenile/
Mature wood
Forestry and
harvesting
Lumber and
chips
TASS III
GUI
Tree file
Carbon and
biomass stats
Height
Diameter
Quality
Buck
Sawsim
Optitek
Log file
Grade
Lumber file
Dimensions
Juveinile
Wood
Grade
Length
Diameter
Quality
Knots
Veneer file
PLOTSY
Linked with
TASS, TIPSY,
and FAN$IER
FAN$IER
Product file
Graded
Boards and
Chips
Veneer
Carbon
Interpret
Evaluation file
Decision
Revenue and
Discounted
Value
User imput
Silvicultural
treatments
Planting
Spacing
Fertilizing
Pruning
Lumber
Specs.
Logging
chance
Discount rate
Haul distance
District
Thickness
Width
Length
Wane
TIPSY
BatchTIPSY
60
Timber supply model
TIPSY Version 4.2 Alpha 2
Effect of regeneration level on merch. Volume (12.5cm+)
Merch. Volume (12.5cm+)
700
1200/ha
600
500
500/ha
400
300
200
100
0
0
20
40
60
80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
Total age
Effect of regeneration options on percent JW
120
Juvenile wood (%)
100
80
60
500/ha
40
1200/ha
20
0
0
20
40
60
80
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
Total age
The Outline
• What is tree volume?
– Standing
– Log
– Lumber - LRF
• What is tree value?
–
–
–
–
Juvenile wood
Knots
Relative density (specific gravity)
Lumber
• What is stand volume?
– Total volume
– Merchantable volume
– Operational adjustment factors
• What is stand value?
– Value chain
– Benefits
– Costs
• Silviculture
• Harvesting
• Manufacturing
– Interest rate
• SYLVER
– FAN$IER
• Example
– Precommercial thinning
• Risk (MPB)
• What is the verdict?
Simulation experiment
• Species: Pli
• Site index: 20m
• Initial density 10000 sph natural randomly distributed from year 1
to 10
• Merch limit: 12.5 + cm
• OAF’s: 15% OAF1 and 5% OAF2
• PCT when top-height= 4m
• Runs:
–
–
–
–
–
T0000 - no PCT
T2500 - PCT to 2500
T1111 - PCT to 1111
T0816 - PCT to 816
T0625 - PCT to 625
65
Standing tree volume/ha
Merch Volume
350
300
Merch Vol 12.5 cm
250
T0000
200
T2500
150
T1111
T0816
100
T0625
50
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Age
66
Standing tree volume/ha
DBH
35
30
DBH (cm)
25
T0000
20
T2500
15
T1111
T0816
10
T0625
5
0
0
20
40
60
Age
80
100
120
67
Mean log volume
Mean Log Volume
0.25
Mean Log Vol (m3)
0.20
0.15
T0000
T2500
0.10
T1111
T0816
T0625
0.05
0.00
0
20
40
60
Age
80
100
120
68
Mean knot diameter per log
Mean Knot Diam
3.5
Mean Knot Diam (cm)
3
2.5
T0000
T2500
T1111
2
T0816
T0625
1.5
1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Age
69
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Net present value
calculation
0
20
40
60
80
-
100
Age
T0000
T2500
T1111
T0816
T0625
Disc. Costs - lumber+chips
0
-500
Costs ($/ha)
Benefits ($/ha)
Disc. Benefits - lumber+chips
-1000
=
-1500
-2000
-2500
-3000
0
20
40
60
80
100
Age
T0000
T2500
T1111
T0816
T0625
70
Net present value – lumber market
1500
Net Present Value - lumber market
1000
Net present value ($/ha)
-$427
T0000
500
T0625
T0816
T1111
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
T2500
-500
-1000
Age
71
Tree-truck costs =f(vol/ha, vol/tree)
$26
Tree-to-truck costs ($/m3)
$24
$22
$20
15% lower
$18
Control
PCT
$16
$14
$12
$10
0
20
40
60
80
100
Age
72
Harvesting costs
Volume Harv Cost $/m3
120
110
100
Harv cost $/m3
90
80
T0000
T2500
70
T1111
60
T0816
T0625
50
40
30
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Age
73
Sensitivity to harvesting costs
2000
Net Present Value - lumber market
Zero harvesting costs for thinned stands
$302
-427
$729
1500
Net present value ($/ha)
+$302
1000
-$427
T0000
T0625
500
T0816
74
T1111
T2500
0
0
20
40
60
-500
-1000
Age
80
100
120
Sensitivity to harvesting costs
• Present value of harvest costs for 2500/ha @ 55yrs (culmination of NPV)
=$836
• Difference between NPVs (Pct to 2500 v. No thin) with harvest costs
=$427
• Therefore, all other things being equal, harvest costs of the thinned stand
must be about half the no thin option to make the NPVs the same.
• Is that likely? You be the judge.
75
Value indicators
1500
1500
Value
Value
indicators
indicators
- Merch.
- Piecevolume
size
Value indicators - Piece size
Net present value ($/ha)
Net present value ($/ha)
1000
1000
T0000
T0000
500
500
T2500
T2500
76
T1111
T1111
00
00.00
50
5 0.05 100
10
0.10
150
15
0.15
200
20
0.25
350
35
T0816
T0816
T0625
T0625
-500
-500
-1000
-1000
250
25 0.20 300
30
Average log volume
3/ha)
Merch.
Average
volume
DBH(m
(cm)
Question:
Why include average DBH as a
measure of operability in TSR?
77
The Outline
• What is tree volume?
– Standing
– Log
– Lumber - LRF
• What is tree value?
–
–
–
–
Juvenile wood
Knots
Relative density (specific gravity)
Lumber
• What is stand volume?
– Total volume
– Merchantable volume
– Operational adjustment factors
• What is stand value?
– Value chain
– Benefits
– Costs
• Silviculture
• Harvesting
• Manufacturing
– Interest rate
• SYLVER
– FAN$IER
• Example
– Precommercial thinning
• Risk (MPB)
• What is the verdict?
EP 660
Bobtail installation
CFS Demonstration area
Unthinned
2000/ha
1000/ha
600
400
300
Dead
Alive
200
100
400
300
Dead
Alive
200
100
0
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
Dbh class (cm)
300
200
150
Dead
Alive
100
50
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
Dbh class (cm)
5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Dbh class (cm)
Bobtail EP660
planted 637/ha
Top ht=14.1m
250
No. Stems/ha
Bobtail CFS demo Thinned to 1000/ha in 1990
Top ht.=17.1
500
No. Stems/ha
500
No. Stems/ha
600
Bobtail EP660
planted 1076/ha
Top ht=14.1m
30
35
40
5000
Bobtail CFS demo Unthinned
Top ht.=16.9
4000
3000
Dead
2000
Alive
No. Stems/ha
4000
No. Stems/ha
5000
Buckhorn EP660 planted
4305/ha
Top ht=14.1m
1000
3000
Dead
2000
Alive
1000
0
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
5
10
Dbh class (cm)
1500
1500
25
30
35
40
900
Dead
600
Bobtail CFS demo Thinned to 2000/ha in 1990
Top ht.=16.5
1200
Alive
No. Stems/ha
No. Stems/ha
20
Dbh class (cm)
Bobtail EP660
planted 2196/ha
Top ht=14.1m
1200
15
900
Dead
600
Alive
300
300
0
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
Dbh class (cm)
30
35
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
Dbh class (cm)
30
35
40
• Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, the question
clearly is, do we want volume or value?
• I suggest we should manage for volume AND
value.
• The defence (or is it prosecution?) rests.
• People of the jury, how say you?
83
Thank you for
your attention