Transcript Slide 1
Abstract
On October 31 st , 2011, the United Nations reported that the world population had reached 7 billion and was projected to hit 9 billion by 2050, and 10 billion by 2100. Crossing this benchmark has re-instigated awareness of the dangers of overpopulation. Scientists Donella and Dennis Meadows have updated their previous study in
Limits to Growth
to this century and have shown how the current world population growth rate is unsustainable. Nigeria is currently the fastest growing African country in population, and is predicted to be the world’s third most populous country by 2050.
There are many interdependent relationships between population growth and various aspects of the country. The purpose of this project is to develop a forecasting and decision-making tool that allows stakeholders to explore different prospects of sustainable development based on population changes. The model provides information on what directions the country is heading towards and how to modify that direction by influencing population change.
We have narrowed our model to focus on the central issues pertinent for Nigeria, including education and HIV. We used the system dynamics software STELLA to build a model that takes into account the various key factors affecting population growth and their impact on social, economic, and environmental aspects of Nigeria. We were able to compare the results of our model with existing historical data for validation. Users such as policy makers, experts in population studies, and non-governmental organizations can see the potential impacts of population on social, economic, and environmental aspects of Nigeria.
Team #13 Authors:
Jayme Chen ESE’12 Seung Jae (Andy) Lee ESE’12 Justin Yeh ESE’12
Advisors:
Dr. Peter Scott Katherine Williams
Demo Times:
April 19 th , 2012 11:30am-12:00pm; 2:30pm-4:00pm
Overall System Design Sustainability Index System Dynamics
System dynamics is a computer aided approach to understand how subsystems are interrelated with each other. This approach incorporates feedback, defines cause and effect, and captures non-linear relationships. In our model, these relationships are created by applying algorithms to social, economic, and environmental factors. This model facilitates stakeholder’s understanding of potential impacts when changes to the input parameters shown in the graphical interface section below are made in order to better manage critical population considerations.
The diagram above is a simplified representation of our population subsystem created using system dynamics software STELLA.
Potential Stakeholders
Academia (Penn Population Studies Center) Nigerian Government
Stakeholders Benefit of Model to Stakeholders
Use as a study tool to analyze population dynamics in Nigeria Help policy-makers make well informed decisions to encourage sustainable development based on population Non-Governmental Organizations (Population Matters) Provide implementable results and simulations
Validation
Validation was completed by comparing the outputs of our simulations with data from previous policies and its impact on population growth. We applied the model with past statistical data from Nigeria and other similar African countries with the assumption that they face similar issues. We readjusted and checked our model so it fell within 5% confidence interval.
Graphical User Interface
Special Thanks to: Penn Population Studies Center, Population Matters, Dr. Ken Laker, Dr. Peter Scott, Katherine Williams
179160000
Results
Total Population
• Baseline shows the development path before policy implementation 179150000 179140000 179130000 179120000 18030000 18020000 18010000 Baseline Policy 1 Policy 2 Policy 3
GDP ($) and Energy Usage (kiloton) due to Population Change
GDP Energy Usage • Policy 1 increases proportion of population having safe sex and decreases HIV/AIDS transmission and progression rates.
151050 151040 151030 151020 • Policy 2 increases the school intake rate and decreases drop out and repetition rates.
18000000 Baseline Policy 1 Policy 2 Policy 3 151010 151000 • Policy 3 is a mix of Policy 1 and 2. The recommended solution is a mix of population policies focused to improve the education system and decrease HIV/AIDS prevalence in Nigeria for economic growth and environmental balance.