Transcript Trends in High School Graduates: West

The Aging Population
Percent Growth in U.S. Population, 1986-2006
by Age Bracket
100%
94%
84%
80%
62%
60%
57%
55%
40%
22%
20%
14%
19%
17%
12%
19%
11%
0%
0%
-1%
-7%
-20%
<5
5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24
25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
50-54 55-59 60-64 65-74
75+
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Growth in U.S. Population Over Five-Year Intervals,
1986-2006
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
<5
5-9
10-14 15-19
20-24 25-29
1986-91
30-34 35-39 40-44
1991-96
45-49 50-54
1996-2001
55-59 60-64
65-74
75+
2001-06
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
The Impact of Traditional Students on Total
College Enrollment
140%
Index: 1985 = 100%
135%
Total Enrollment
130%
125%
120%
115%
110%
18-Year Olds
105%
100%
95%
First-Time Freshmen
90%
85%
80%
75%
8485
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
0405
Source: U.S. Department of Education/U.S. Census Bureau
Student Enrollments, 1986-2016
by Age Bracket
11,750,000
18-24
10,750,000
9,750,000
8,750,000
7,750,000
6,750,000
5,750,000
4,750,000
3,750,000
35+
25-29
2,750,000
1,750,000
30-34
750,000
1985-86
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2015-16
Source: U.S.Department of Education
College Enrollment Profile, 1986-2016
by Age Bracket
100%
80%
18-24
60%
40%
20%
35+
25-29
30-34
0%
1985-86
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2015-16
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Undergraduate Enrollment by Attendance Status
1986-2016
12,000,000
10,333,000
10,000,000
9,009,000
8,000,000
7,169,000
6,348,000
6,259,000
5,618,000
6,000,000
5,094,000
4,271,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
8586
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
Full-time
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
1516
Part-Time
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Change in Part-Time Enrollment, 1986-2016
60%
50%
41.6%
40.2%
40%
37.0%
35.7%
30%
20%
-1
6
14
12
08
06
04
02
00
98
96
94
92
90
88
10
15
85
-8
6
10%
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Graduate and Professional Enrollment, 1986-2016
by Attendance Status
1,800,000
1,715,000
1,500,000
1,341,000
1,293,000
1,200,000
1,046,000
894,000
900,000
1,173,000
983,000
755,000
600,000
300,000
-1
6
15
14
12
10
08
06
04
02
00
98
96
94
92
90
88
85
-8
6
0
Full-time
Part-time
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Gender and Attendance Status
1985-2015
40%
FT Women
35%
30%
FT Men
25%
PT Women
20%
PT Men
15%
-1
5
13
11
07
05
03
01
99
97
95
93
91
89
87
09
14
84
-8
5
10%
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Growing Ethnic Diversity
Growth Rate of U.S. Population by Ethnic Group
1981-2051
1000%
Index: 1981 = 100%
Asian
900%
800%
Hispanic
700%
600%
500%
400%
300%
Black
200%
White
100%
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
2031
2041
2051
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Growth in U.S. Population by Ethnic Group
1981-2051
450,000,000
400,000,000
350,000,000
300,000,000
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
80-81
85-86
90-91
95-96
White Non-Hisp
00-01
05-06
10-11
Black
15-16
20-21
Hispanic
25-26
30-31
40-41
50-51
Asian
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Concentration of Minorities Enrolled in Public
Elementary/Secondary Schools, 2003-04,
and Selected Changes from 1993-94
+10.1%
+9.9%
+19.7%
+19.4%
+9.6%
+10.4%
+10.1%
More than 50%
+9.0%
36% to 50%
+11.2%
21% to 35%
10% to 20%
Less than 10%
Source: U.S. Department of Education
High School Graduation Rates by Ethnic Group
1999-2006
100%
Asian
90%
White, non-Hispanic
80%
Black
70%
Hispanic
60%
50%
40%
98-99
99-00
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
College-Going Rates of High School Graduates
Aged 18 to 24 by Ethnic Group, 1999-2006
70%
Asian
65%
60%
55%
50%
White, Non-Hispanic
45%
Black
40%
Hispanic
35%
30%
25%
20%
98-99
99-00
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Concentration of Minorities Enrolled in Higher
Education, 2005-06
and Selected Changes from 1994-95
+10.9%
+9.0%
+10.5%
+15.4%
+12.5%
+9.8%
+9.9%
+11.7%
+11.6%
+14.8%
+9.7%
+9.4%
+12.4%
More than 40%
+10.6%
+10.5%
31% to 40%
+9.0%
+13.6%
21% to 30%
11% to 20%
0 to 10%
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Growth in College Enrollment by Ethnic Group
1994-95 to 2005-06
180%
Index: 1995 = 100%
170%
Hispanic
160%
150%
Black
140%
Asian
American Indian
130%
120%
110%
White, Non-Hispanic
100%
90%
94-95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
04-05
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Racial-Ethnic Distribution in College Enrollment
1994-95 to 2005-06
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
94-95
96
97
98
White/Non-Hispanic
99
Black
00
Hispanic
01
02
Asian
03
04
04-05
American Indian
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Minority Males as a Percent of Total College
Enrollment, 1994-95 to 2005-06
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
Black
4%
Hispanic
3%
Asian
2%
1%
American Indian
0%
94-95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
04-05
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Minority Females as a Percent of Total College
Enrollment, 1994-95 to 2005-06
9%
8%
Black
7%
6%
Hispanic
5%
4%
Asian
3%
2%
American Indian
1%
0%
94-95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
04-05
Source: U.S. Department of Education
12%
Ratio of Bachelor’s Degrees Earned to Enrollments
1993-94 to 2003-04
11%
White
10%
Asian
9%
8%
Black
7%
American Indian
6%
Hispanic
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
93-94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
03-04
Source: U.S. Department of Education
2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and FourYear College Enrollment
Selected States
2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and
Four-Year College Enrollment: California
Fall 2006 enrolled 4-yr. colleges
102,996
378,699
2005-06 H.S. graduates
431,926
2005-06 H.S. seniors
191,740
2005-06 senior SAT
155,356
2004-05 junior PSAT
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Source: The College Board/U.S. Department of Education
2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and
Four-Year College Enrollment: Florida
59,868
Fall 2006 enrolled 4-yr. colleges
146,682
2005-06 H.S. graduates
2005-06 H.S. seniors
165,350
2005-06 senior SAT
94,601
2004-05 junior PSAT
54,045
0
37,000
74,000
111,000
148,000
185,000
Source: The College Board/U.S. Department of Education
2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and
Four-Year College Enrollment: Massachusetts
Fall 2006 enrolled 4-yr. colleges
34,630
2005-06 H.S. graduates
77,683
2005-06 H.S. seniors
81,554
2005-06 senior SAT
59,529
2004-05 junior PSAT
48,500
0
18,000
36,000
54,000
72,000
90,000
Source: The College Board/U.S. Department of Education
2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and
Four-Year College Enrollment: New York
Fall 2006 enrolled 4-yr. colleges
89,751
2005-06 H.S. graduates
165,998
2005-06 H.S. seniors
179,167
2005-06 senior SAT
153,518
2004-05 junior PSAT
124,657
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
Source: The College Board/U.S. Department of Education
2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and
Four-Year College Enrollment: Ohio
Fall 2006 enrolled 4-yr. colleges
55,089
2005-06 H.S. graduates
118,725
2005-06 H.S. seniors
131,119
2005-06 senior SAT
34,970
2004-05 junior PSAT
54,398
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
Source: The College Board/U.S. Department of Education
2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and
Four-Year College Enrollment: Texas
81,098
Fall 2006 enrolled 4-yr. colleges
252,493
2005-06 H.S. graduates
257,298
2005-06 H.S. seniors
2005-06 senior SAT
129,784
2004-05 junior PSAT
144,497
0
56,000
112,000
168,000
224,000
280,000
Source: The College Board/U.S. Department of Education
Other Trends Affecting Higher Education
Percent Change in Resident Population, 1985-2005
by College Board Region
New England
Middle States
6.4%
5.7%
5.5%
4.9%
South
Midwest
Southwest
15.3%
5.1%
2.3%
12.9%
West
0.0%
15.4%
24.8%
22.1%
5.0%
10.0%
17.3%
15.0%
20.0%
85-95
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
95-05
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Percent of High School Graduates Enrolled in a
Four-Year College Outside Their Home State
Fall 2004
+5%
CT -6%
-18%
-9%
DE +10%
MD+6%
+7%
50% or more
-6%
-11%
30% to 49%
-27%
15% to 29%
-11%
Less than 15%
Source: U.S. Department of Education
States with Largest Net Migration of Four-Year
College Freshmen, Fall 2004
Pennsylvania
12,165
North Carolina
7,525
District of Columbia
6,567
Indiana
5,699
Massachusetts
4,680
Florida
4,568
Utah
3,999
New York
-2,331
-3,273
Minnesota
-7,003
California
-7,676
Texas
-8,056
Maryland
-10,207
Illinois
New Jersey
-30,000
-22,187
-24,000
-18,000
-12,000
-6,000
0
6,000
12,000
18,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Change in Intended Major 1976-77 to 2006-07
28%
21%
14%
7%
0%
Business
Engineering
Education
76-77
Biological
Sciences
86-87
Computer
Science
96-97
Social
Sciences
Art, Music,
Drama
Health
Professions
06-07
Source: CIRP
Trends in College Costs and Financial Aid
Trends in Concern About Ability to Finance a
College Education, 1976-77 to 2006-07
100%
90%
80%
33.2%
31.1%
49.9%
51.5%
29.6%
30.6%
53.9%
52.2%
37.6%
35.3%
35.8%
52.2%
52.5%
12.4%
11.6%
01-02
06-07
70%
60%
50%
40%
48.6%
30%
20%
10%
16.9%
17.4%
76-77
81-82
13.7%
16.6%
17.2%
86-87
92-93
96-97
0%
Major Concern
Some
None
Source: CIRP
25%
Percent For Whom Financing was a Major Concern
1992-93 to 2006-07 (Selected Years)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
92-93
94-95
96-97
Public Univ
97-98
99-00
Private Univ
00-01
01-02
Public 4-Yr
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07
Private (Non-Sect) 4-Yr
Source: CIRP
Trends in Rate of Increase in Total Four-Year
College Costs, 1979-80 to 2005-06
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
Public
6%
4%
Private
2%
CPI
0%
79- 81 82 83
80
84 85 86 87 88 89
90 91 92 93 94 95
96 97 98 99 00 01
02 03 04 0405
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Trends in Rate of Increase in Four-Year College
Tuition & Fees, 1979-80 to 2005-06
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
Public
6%
Private
4%
CPI
2%
0%
79- 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0480
05
Source: U.S. Department of Education
$35,000
College Costs and Disposable Per Capita Income,
1996-97
to
2006-07
Published Charges
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
19992000
Private 4-Year
2000-01
2001-02
Public 4-Year
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Per Capita Income
Source:The College Board
Year-to-Year Change in College Costs and
Disposable Income, 1996-97 to 2006-07
10%
Change in published charges
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
95-96 to
96-97
96-97 to
97-98
97-98 to
98-99
98-99 to
99-00
Private 4-Year
99-00 to
00-01
00-01 to
01-02
01-02 to
02-03
Public 4-Year
02-03 to
03-04
03-04 to
04-05
04-05 to
05-06
05-06 to
06-07
Per Capita Income
Source:The College Board
Types of Financial Aid as a Percentage of Total,
1995-96 to 2005-06
60%
Loans
50%
Grants
40%
30%
20%
10%
Tax Benefits
Work
0%
95-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
99-00
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
Source:The College Board
Sources of Financial Aid as Percentage of Total,
1995-96 to 2005-06
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
95-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
Federal: Generally Available
Institutional Grants
Non-Federal Loans
99-00
00-01
01-02
Federal: Specially Directed
State Grants
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
Education Tax Benefits
Private & Employer Grants
Source:The College Board