Transcript Should the Government Subsidize Supply or Demand for

Master in Engineering Policy and Management of Technology
Science Technology & Innovation Policy
Should the Government Subsidize Supply or Demand
for Scientists or Engineers?
Paul M. Romer
Alexandre Mateus
Inês Azevedo
Sara Levy
Master in Engineering Policy and Management of Technology
Science & Technology Innovation Policy
I. Introduction
Increase the trend rate of economic growth per capita
• Assumption:
USA’s unprecedent growth was fostered by a publically supported
system of education that provided input – people – into the
process of innovation
• increase the trend rate of economic growth
 education system for scientists and engineers
• Government programs:
 Stimulate demand
 Have little effect in technological progress
• Hypothesis:
In order for Government programs to succeed there has to be a
positive supply response
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
II. The Importance of Technology Policy
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
III. Demand Subsidies
• Government subsidizes the private sector in order to induce
higher demand for scientists and engineers
– Special tax advantages
– Cost-sharing agreements (direct cash payments)
• Increase spending on R&D
w
E=nw
increase number of inputs (people)
vs increase wages
If supply curve is fixed,
increase in demand will
translate in increase in
wages with no increase in
n.º of researchers
n
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
III. Demand Subsidies
• Firms that receive grants increase sales and employment
(Lerner, 1999)
Unobserved, intrinsic differences between
the recipient and the comparison group
• For an increase in government spending  there’s an equal
increase in reported private spending
20 to 30% of claimed expenditures
are disallowed each year
• Coefficient m is used to measure true increase in private
spending in R&D associated with additional subsidy
But increases in m could also be
associated with increase in wages
 Golsbee (1998)
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
III. Demand Subsidies
• In face of these, demand-side defenders can argue that:
•
People are not the only input: if equipment is being supplied elastically
there is a true increase in R&D inputs even if n.º of researchers is held
constant;
 it would be more cost-effective to subsidize equipment directly
•
Subsidies can increase number of researchers in subsidized firms
although not in the economy as a whole: the government would be
influencing the researcher’s allocation
 there’s no evidence that the government can allocate people
better than the market
•
The supply will, in the long-term, react to the demand-induced
changes in wages
 section IV
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
IV. Overview on the Supply for Scientists and Engineers
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
IV. Overview on the Supply for Scientists and Engineers
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
V. The Supply of Undergraduate Degrees in Science & Engineering
• Undergraduate schools seek the best students:
– Publicizing the degree of selectivity;
• Students compete for the most selective institutions:
– Offer stronger proof of the student’s ability.
• Low number of science and engineering graduates:
– More demanding evaluation:
• Lower grades;
• High number of quitters;
• Usage of foreign born resources:
– Immigration responds to market demand;
– Contrast between immigration flow and internal education trends;
– Ph.D. Number by immigrants doubled between 86 and 95;
• Natural born obtaining Ph.D. degrees increases only 20%.
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
VI. The Supply of Ph.D. Degrees in Science and Engineering
• Increase of the number of Ph.D. degrees in the 90’s:
– Lower employment expectations for Ph. D. holders;
• Increase students reluctance to getting Ph.D.s
• Increase does not satisfy market demand!
• Ph.D. holders can be:
– University researchers:
• Great PhD holders flow:
• Reason: subsidies for the Ph.D.s and support to university research;
– Private sector R&D researchers;
• True lack of resources;
• Goal: increase the number of Ph.D. holders working in private sector
research.
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VII. An Interpretation of the Evidence Concerning Higher Education
Evidence:
• Undergraduated Institutions: critical bottleneck.
• Graduate Schools: training for employment in academic
institutions.
Why doesn’t competition by entry solve the problem?
• Graduation education in sciences: prestige associated with research more
important than tuition revenue.
Why is there an opposition to change?
• What might the effects be?
• Current funding/training system: crutial to maintain the institutions of
science.
The same in EU?
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VIII. Goals & Programs
Goals ≠ Programs
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
V. Goals & Programs
Goals ≠ Programs
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V. Conclusions
• Better growth policy could have implications for
quality of life;
• In the last decades the efforts made to encourage
faster growth have been timid and poorly
conceived.
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Science Technology & Innovation Policy
POCTI
Programa Operacional Ciência e Tecnologia, Inovação
2000 - 2006
Master in Engineering Policy and Management of Technology
Science & Technology Innovation Policy
Eixos e Medidas
• Eixo Prioritário 1 - Formar e Qualificar
•
•
Medida 1.1 - Formação avançada
Medida 1.2 - Apoio à inserção de doutores e mestres nas empresas e nas
instituições de I&D
• Eixo Prioritário 2 - Desenvolver o Sistema Científico, Tecnológico e
de Inovação
•
•
•
Medida 2.1 - Desenvolver uma Rede Moderna de Instituições de I&D
Medida 2.2 - Organizar uma Matriz Coerente de Equipamentos Científicos
Medida 2.3 - Promover a Produção Científica, o Desenvolvimento Tecnológico e
a Inovação
• Eixo Prioritário 3 - Promover a Cultura Científica e Tecnológica
•
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Medida 3.1 - Promover a cultura científica e tecnológica
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
Financiamento disponível para as medidas
Eix o
medida
Eix o 1
1.1 formação av ançada
1.2 inserção nas empresas
Eix o 2
2.1 inst it uições de I &D
2.2 mat riz de equipament os
2.3 produção cient ífica
Eix o 3
3.1 cult ura cient ífica
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Alocação
total
%
371.055
129.869
35%
241.186
65%
496.389
79.422
16%
29.783
6%
387.183
78%
69.830
69.830
100%
937.274
POCTI 2000 (mil €)
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
Subsídios à Procura / Oferta
Subsídios
Eixo/ medida
Procura
1.2 inserção nas empresas
2.1 instituições de I&D
2.2 matriz de equipamentos
Oferta
1.1 formação avançada
2.3 produção científica
3.1 cultura científica
Alocação
total
%
37%
26%
8%
3%
350 391
241 186
79 422
29 783
63%
14%
41%
7%
586 883
129 869
387 183
69 830
937 274
POCTI 2000 (mil €)
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
Indicadores
Eixo/Medida
Indicador
Unidade
Procura
Objectivo
1997
2006
Eixo 1
Número de investigadores a trabalhar em
empresas e instituições de I&D
nº
1200
2400
Eixo 2
Percentagem do PIB para I&D
%
0,68
1
Dotações Públicas C&T em % do OE
%
2,1
2,5
Despesa de I&D das empresas em % do PIB
%
0,15
0,25
Eixo 1
Número de investigadores em permilagem da
pop activa
%o
2,9
5
Eixo 2
Produção Científica Annual Referenciada
Internacionalmente
nº
2 798
2 798 + (0.5
x 2 798)
Eixo 3
Número de Centros de Ciência Viva
nº
4
> 1 por
distrito
Oferta
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Master in Engineering Policy and Management of Technology
Science Technology & Innovation Policy
Discussion
Master in Engineering Policy and Management of Technology
Science & Technology Innovation Policy
Discussion
10000
Portugal: PIB per capita
(preços constantes de 95, €/capita)
9500
9000
8500
8000
Nota: série temporal diferente!
7500
7000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
ano
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
Discussion
Número de alunos inscritos nas
Áreas de ciência, matemática e
computação e e na área de engenharia,
manufactura e construção relativamente
ao total de alunos inscritos em qualquer
área de educação.
60%
50%
40%
Construído a partir de “Key data on
Education in Europe 2002, EC”.
30%
20%
10%
0%
EU15
S
Homens
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Mulheres
PT
Total
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Master in Engineering Policy and Management of Technology
Science & Technology Innovation Policy
Discussion
O autor faz referência a “National Science Board, Science and
Engineering Indicator, 1998”.
Já existe uma publicação de 2002: alterações?
http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/seind02/start.htm
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Science & Technology Innovation Policy
Discussion
http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/seind02/start.htm
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