Transcript What is waste? - University of Toronto

Greening the Automotive Sector – Are Hybrids
Green? A Life Cycle Assessment Approach
Chuck Hostovsky, PhD, MCIP, RPP
Sessional Lecturer 2 – University of Toronto
GGR335 Oct. 7, 2010
Originally presented at the Canadian Association of
Geographers conference, Oct. 2009
Lecture readings
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UNEP chapter 3
Reid R. Heffner, Kenneth S. Kurani, Thomas
S. Turrentine. 2007. “Symbolism in California’s
early market for hybrid electric vehicles.”
Transportation Research D, 12, pp. 396–413.
 Hostovsky, C. draft 2010. “Hybrid and Electric
Automobiles: Implications to Transportation
Demand Management”, Robbins, Paul,
Mulvaney, Dustin, and Golson, J. Geoffrey
(eds.). Green Society: Toward a Sustainable
Future, Volume 10: Green Technology. Online
SAGE.
Hypothesis

Increased popularity of hybrids is largely
based on an image of environmental
friendliness resulting from deep corporate
green-washing, rather than empirical
evidence of environmental superiority. As a
result hybrid owners are increasing their
VMT due to the conservation rebound
effect.
 Furthermore, some governments are
providing economic incentives, allowing
SOV in HOV lanes, and creating other
initiatives to promote hybrids that may be
counter-productive to transportation
demand management (TDM) and transitoriented development (TOD).
Old paradigm - adjust
roads and vehicles, not
driver behavior (VTPI)
New - improve system
diversity and efficiency
Generate alternatives to
single occupancy
commuter travel (get
people out of their cars)
Research questions
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Are hybrids environmentally superior to conventional
internal combustion engine motor vehicles?
Is hybrid advertising green-washing?
Do hybrid owners become environmentally “smug”?
Is there evidence of the conservation rebound effect
exhibited by hybrid owners?
What is the relationship between hybrid ownership and
TDM?
In the long run, will increased popularity of hybrid and
AEV affect the move toward TOD in urban planning
(smart growth) due to perceived improved freeway
LOS?
Methods

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Literature search
Thematic analysis of hybrid commercials and
advertising
 Focus group facilitation
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Metronuaghts Transit “Un-conference”, McMaster
University, Hamilton, ON, Session Facilitator:
Hybrid and Green Vehicles: Implications for Transit
Oriented Development, May 3, 2008.
Near future: arranging focus groups with a Toronto
and Burlington Toyota dealers (suburban versus
city hybrid owners)
Trend - sales increasing
+300% Canada
2004 – 2006
Still less than
5% market
J.D. Power
predicts U.S.
hybrid sales to
triple by 2015
http://www.motorauthority.com/blog/1024598_jd-power-predicts-u-s-diesel-and-hybrid-sales-totriple-by-2015
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2009_fotw598.html
De Rigueur
Becoming de
rigueur to own a
hybrid for
celebrities and
politicians
Lifestyle
Magazine, 2007
Juxtapose
carbon footprint
of Jen’s new
10,000 sq. ft.
estate
OK Magazine
2008
What the presidential candidates drive
www.greendaily.com/2008/01/19/what-the-presidential-candidates-drive/
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Associated Press queried the candidates
about what cars they drive
Republicans:
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Mike Huckabee : A 2007 Chevy Tahoe
as their family's main car and his
personal car is a Chevrolet Silverado
truck (16 mpg and 12 mpg).
John McCain: His wife drives a Lexus,
he drives a Cadillac and his daughter
drives a hybrid.
Mitt Romney: Romney drives a
Mustang convertible and a Chevy
pickup; his wife drives a Cadillac
crossover.
Rudy Guiliani: Doesn't own a car.
Democrats:
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Barack Obama: Chrysler 300C, but
later bought a Ford Escape SUV hybrid.
John Edwards: An Escape hybrid
Hillary Clinton: Mercury Mariner
hybrid.
http://www.obamas300c.com/
Is it now “environmentally correct” to drive a hybrid?
What is TDM?
 Transportation (travel)
demand management (TDM)
is the use of policies,
programs, services and
products to influence
whether, why, when, where
and how people travel.
 TDM measures motivate
people to:
 shift modes
 make fewer trips
 drive more efficiently
Government initiatives – counter
productive to TDM
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Hybrids allowed in HOV
lanes in some
jurisdictions
Canada eco-Auto
rebate

$2,000 for compact
hybrids
• Stimulates
induced
(latent) travel
demand
• reduce
transit use,
car-pooling,
trip
combining &
TDM
strategies
Private sector initiatives

DRIVERS OF HYBRID AND FUEL EFFICIENT
VEHICLES GET PREFERRED GREEN PARKING AT
IKEA STORES IN CANADA

IKEA Recognizes Environmentally Conscious
Customers with Two Designated Parking Spots at
All 11 Locations
IKEA is rewarding customers who drive hybrid and fuel
efficient vehicles with preferred Green Parking spaces.
Rolling out at the end of May at all 11 IKEA stores
across the country, two parking spaces in each lot will
be designated as Green.
IKEA Canada welcomes all drivers of hybrid cars and
fuel efficient vehicles recognized by the recent Federal
government’s tax relief incentive (cars that use less
than 6.5L of gas per 100km) to take advantage of
IKEA’s Green Parking spaces.
http://www.ikea.com/ms/en_CA/about_ikea/press_room/press_release/national/hybrid_parking.html
Ontario MTO initiative: “Eco-license”
plates…
Aug. 8 2007 press
release
 Green vehicle
program that will
rate cars, light
trucks and
commercial
vehicles using
environmental
criteria… green
vehicles will be
recognized with an
Eco-license
plate for HOV
lanes
Life cycle impacts of automobiles
http://www.ec.gc.ca/soer-ree/English/products/factsheets/93-1.cfm
Are hybrids “green”?
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq4nrmnqY9o
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XblJq4iVT9g
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mlffr3e5P4
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVg2rG07z50&mode=related&search
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MacLean, Heather L. and Lester B. Lave. 2003. “Life
Cycle Assessment of Automobile/Fuel Options.”
Environ. Sci. Technol., 2003, 37 (23), 5445-5452•

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Did not compare conventional to alternatives
Only looked at use phase
Pointed out one major LCA – Ford Taurus, 73% CO2 from use
phase
Ford - Easy being green?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQLiX_yqkfk
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“The publication in August 2007 of its 38-page Product
Sustainability Index Report was a first for the
automotive industry (certified against ISO 14040 for
LCA by external assessors). As well as detailing the
Ford approach to sustainability, it is also a fact that the
three of its cars designed with sustainability in mind
have delivered improved environmental, social and
economic sustainability performance compared to their
predecessors and other models.”

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United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) & Society of Environmental Toxicology
and Chemistry Europe (SETCE). 2009. Life Cycle Management: How business uses it to
decrease footprint, create opportunities and make value chains more sustainable.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LupVfiXjE6c&NR=1
“Dust to Dust” LCA 2008

CNW Marketing Research Inc. has conducted the
world's most comprehensive analysis of the "life cycle"
energy requirements of more than 100 makes and
models of cars and trucks

4,000 "data points" for each car – “cradle to grave”
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energy consumed in research and development
energy consumed in junkyard disposal
energy needed to produce parts
greenhouse gas emissions
Fuel mileage
Vehicle lifespan
Hybrids
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CNW credited Prius with only half
its 200,000 lifetime miles – poor
battery life, reduced use
hybrids fare poorly because of
increased complexity
hybrids fare poorly because of increased complexity

Batteries - Toyota buys 1,000 tonnes of nickel a year
from Ontario (mined and smelted in Sudbury). This
nickel gets shipped to Wales for refining, then to China,
for further processing, and then to Toyota's battery plant
in Tokyo - a 10,000-mile trip, mostly by petrol powered
container ships and diesel-powered locomotives
CNW Top 18 most energy efficient vehicles over their life
cycle (normalized by $)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
SMART
Ion
Focus
Cavalier
Wrangler
xB
Aveo
xA
Sunfire
Corolla
Elantra
Accent
tC
Fit
Spectra
Sentra
Cobalt
Mazda 3
$0.583
$0.621
$0.621
$0.655
$0.656
$0.683
$0.693
$0.713
$0.732
$0.748
$0.755
$0.792
$0.792
$0.799
$0.801
$0.862
$0.872
$0.876
Dr. Chuck’s Mazda 3
full of haz waste
Why the 4WD
Jeep with 3.8L
V6?
-Less energy to
manufacture,
longer km
lifespan, easier to
recycle
CNW Hybrid energy efficiency
over their lifetime:

1. Honda Insight ($2.94 per mile)
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5 x greater than Mercedes Smart
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2. Ford Escape Hybrid ($3.18 per mile)
 3. Honda Civic Hybrid ($3.24 per mile)
 4. Toyota Prius ($3.25 per mile)
 5. Honda Accord Hybrid ($3.30 per mile)
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Critics: Hybridcars.com

http://www.hybridcars.com/environment-stories/dust-to-dust-energy-costs.html
Sucking on death analogy…
mild/light cigarettes & hybrid cars
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZZ_Tor33Ms&feature=related
Dr. Chuck’s Simplified LCA

Hostovsky's Internal Combustion Engine
Vehicle Life Cycle Index
 Go to Excel file
 LCA – 30% manufacturing/disposal phases
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Weight (assumes percentage of different materials
the same)
Lifespan in miles – 200,000 miles industry standard
LCA – 70% use phase
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Miles per gallon
Number of occupants – single, mid, maximum base
don number of seat belts
Yamaha Riva scooter
Dr. Chuck’s Ducati’s ST2 - 944 cc v-2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LL81zNA6mFk
Prius, Beetle Diesel, Accord
Caravan, Navigator
Bus, Winnebago
Hybrid TV Commercials online,
March 2009
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Qualitative, thematic analysis, using grounded theory
Sample site – www.Youtube.com
English, not other languages (appear to be entirely
different commercials)
19 commercials:
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Toyota = 9
Honda = 5
Ford = 4
GM = 1
Examined dominant images, themes, and slogans
(catch phrases) used
Commercial analysis results
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58% (n=11) dominant images involved the hybrid set in nature:
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Deep woods common, mountains, glaciers and valleys
Biodiversity, species at risk, rich plant life
26% (n=5) subset has a strong ecological restoration thematic
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Slogans: many e.g. “Kermit the Frog saying “its easy being green”
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Seed planted grows into a tree bearing hybrids as fruit that fall to the ground and
start to drive
Flowers follow the car and the city greens
North America becomes green from space
Everything the hybrid passes on the road transforms to green
Seedlings/flowers emerging through the asphalt
Most outrageous: “harmony between man, nature and machine”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq4nrmnqY9o
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XblJq4iVT9g
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mlffr3e5P4
Other themes
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26% (5) Transformative technology
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Images of da Vinci, hybrid engines, other transportation modes
Slogans:
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“One small step on the accelerator, one giant leap for mankind”
“Creating new alternatives… Ones that won’t change the way we live, but
rather the impact our lives have on the environment around us”
16% (n=3) no environmental theme – appeal to the vehicles utility
as a hatch-back or to fuel mileage
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Images of young adults loading their cars, parking in the city,
everyday driving
Slogans:
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“The hybrid for everyone is here”
“most fuel efficient car in its class”
Conservation Rebound Effect
The consumer chooses to use more of the
resource (increase demand) instead
of realizing the energy/environmental
savings.
 e.g. a person with a more efficient home
heater may chose to raise the setting on the
thermostat or a person driving a more
efficient car may drive more

Conservation Rebound Effect?
DEVICE
SIZE OF REBOUND
NUMBER OF
STUDIES
Residential
Lighting
5-12%
4
Home Appliances
0%
2
Automobiles
10-30%
23
Greening, L.A. Energy efficiency and consumption - the rebound effect - a
survey, Energy Policy (2000) 28: 389-401
Small & Van Dender (UC Energy Institute: Policy & Economics."The Effect
of Improved Fuel Economy on Vehicle Miles Traveled: Estimating the
Rebound Effect Using U.S. State Data, 1966-2001
• short- and long-run rebound effect 4.7% and 22.0%
Very little research on CRE

de Haan, Peter, Mueller, Michel G.; Peters, Anja. 2006. “Does
the hybrid Toyota Prius lead to rebound effects? Analysis of size
and number of cars previously owned by Swiss Prius buyers” ;
Ecological Economics, 58, 3, 592-605.

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Acknowledged Greening’s 2000 survey
surveyed 367 buyers of the Toyota Prius 2 in Switzerland
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Of cars replaced, CO2 emissions dropped 210 g/km to 104 g
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Conservation rebound effect – 3 types?
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vehicle size did not increase
average household vehicle ownership remained stable
However - unable to determine if hybrid drivers will in the
future drive more
Eco-Smugness noted in the media

July 15, 2007, San Francisco Chronicle: “Oh, so pious, Prius
drivers/Smugness drifts over the warming Earth -- is that a bad
thing?” by Vicki Haddock

“The firm's (CNW) research concluded that more customers pick the
Prius over alternatives like the hybrid version of the Honda Civic
precisely because the Prius is exclusively -- and identifiably -- a
hybrid. While just 36 percent cited fuel economy as a prime motivator
for buying a Prius, 57 percent said their main reason was that "it
makes a statement about me." What's more, in focus groups, many
Prius buyers admit expecting acclaim from friends and co-workers for
making such a socially responsible, planet-saving purchase. But
the satisfaction of some eco-drivers risks swelling to selfrighteousness -- like the Prius driver coasting down Highway 101 in
Marin County last week with the bumper sticker: "How many lives to
the gallon do you get?"
Eco-Smugness?

Reid R. Heffner, Kenneth S. Kurani, Thomas S.
Turrentine. 2007. “Symbolism in California’s early
market for hybrid electric vehicles.” Transportation
Research D, 12, pp. 396–413.

“Many households acknowledged purchasing their HEVs as
a response to environmental concerns. However, most had
only a basic understanding of environmental issues or the
ecological benefits of HEVs. Rather than buying their HEVs
with measurable environmental goals in mind, most of the
individuals in this study bought a symbol of preserving the
environment that they could incorporate into a narrative of
who they are, or who they wish to be.”
http://vodpod.com/watch/200728-southpark-hybrid
Focus Group - Hybrid Vehicles and
Green Washing
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Metronuaghts May 3, 2008
Bias – hard core transit advocates
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General suspicion of hybrid marketing
competition with transit
people drive cars as a status symbol, thus where do hybrid cars,
Smart cars, ethonol cars, electric cars fit in?
2 future focus groups
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` for signs of the CRE
Suburban – attitudes toward transit (bus only system) Level of
Service
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do they feel no alternatives to hybrids living in auto-dependant suburbia?
City - Attitudes toward transit (TTC – LRT, subway) Level of Service
and changes in transit patronage
Preliminary research conclusions
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No empirical LCA based evidence that hybrids are more
environmentally efficient
Hybrid commercials exhibit a strong tendency towards greenwashing
Evidence of eco-smugness, likely as a result of deep corporate
green-washing – may dissuade TDM
Governments and business appear to be reacting to this
popularity with misguided programs, subsidies and policies
Much more research is required, especially in terms of how
hybrids effect induced travel demand, and perceived transit LOS
and freeway LOS (environmental performance as a measure of
effectiveness)
Transit advocates are suspicious of hybrid popularity and the
potential effect on TDM and TOD (i.e. “Smart Growth”)
Are Hybrids Green?
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1V86wJWtP8Y
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVg2rG07z50&mode=related&search=
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mlffr3e5P4
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XblJq4iVT9g
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIJn2gyUNCQ
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq4nrmnqY9o
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQLiX_yqkfk
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CV0FnaEnT6o&feature=related
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Amateur Prius joke video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_U7Y7eXZiw&feature=related
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Amateur Escape Hybrid joke video
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LupVfiXjE6c&NR=1