Transcript Geography 237 Geographic Research: Methods and Issues

Geography 152b
Hazards
Hazards Overview
(Smith, 2001, Ch 1)
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discussion: preventing losses
discussion: world more dangerous?
context
hazard research
definitions
typologies of hazards
vulnerability and resilience
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Discussion: Preventing Losses
from Hazard Disaster
• video (Gustav 2008 prep in New
Orleans)
• video (Gustav 2008 evacuation
announcement)
• video (Ike 2008 refusal to evacuate)
• video (Ike 2008 Cuba and Haiti)
• video (Katrina, 2005, looting)
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Discussion: Preventing Losses
from Hazard Disaster
• What can be done to prevent the
devastating losses from such
“natural” disasters?
• Video (2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
waves hit beach)
• Video (2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
inside restaurant)
• Animation (how a tsunami forms)
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Destruction by Tsunami
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Tsunami Early Warning System
• Is this enough?
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Losses are “Social”
• Losses are socially felt
• Losses are socially caused
– E.G., Vulnerability is extremely “social”
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Context:
Discussion
• Is the world more dangerous now
than it was 20 years ago?
• Dangerous for whom?
• (Feel free to discuss with your
neighbours in the class.)
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Context
• healthier than ever
• highest life expectancy ever
• awareness of hazards and risk high
– e.g., 46,962 articles on “hazards” in
major Canadian dailies 1985 to present.
– (reference: “free trade” – 76,531)
• population “at risk” increasing
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Life Expectancy
Septhttp://www.undp.org/hdr2003/indicator/indic_1_2_1.html
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Causes of Death Canada
Source: Thomas and Hrudey (1997) Risk of Death in Canada
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Causes of Death
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Source: Thomas and Hrudey (1997) Risk of Death in Canada
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World Population Growth
world population clock
world mortality clock (correct?)
Source: http://www.prb.org/
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World Population Growth
Source: http://www.indexmundi.com/world/
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World Population Growth
Source: http://www.indexmundi.com/world/
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Improvements are Happening,
but Development is Uneven
Source:
http://hdr.undp.org/docs/statistics/data/flash/2003/hdi_trends.html
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Hazards Research
• acts of God, divorced from society
• mid 20th C (relatively recent) –
natural hazards
• engineering approach – hazard
prediction, hazard mitigation (e.g.,
control structures)
• human ecological approach (see
geography and sociology
approaches) – hazard part of both
natural and social systems
• Gilbert White (1936, 1945) – flood
control
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Hazards Research
• lack of theoretical convergence on
hazards/disasters in the social
sciences
• three social scientific approaches to
hazard research
• sociology – disaster preparedness –
emergencies - coping with
community crisis, effect on social
systems – e.g., cohesion vs conflict
• geography – hazard focus – hazard
perception, land use planning
• critical perspective – vulnerability
of LDCs vs MDCs
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Definitions
Hazard (Smith, 1991)
• a threat of danger
• extreme geophysical, biological
processes and major technological
accidents
• concentrated releases of energy or
materials
• unexpected threat to human life
• can cause significant damage to
goods and environment
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Definitions
Natural Hazard
• caused by forces in the physical
environment
• i.e., forces extraneous to humans
Technological Hazard
• caused by forces in human
environment
• i.e., forces are internal to human
systems
Problems with this distinction?
Provide examples.
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Nature and Human Use Systems
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Hazard Magnitude and
Duration
• threshold – normal band of
tolerance for impacts
• magnitude - peak deviation from
threshold
• duration – time threshold exceeded
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Hazard Magnitude and
Duration
• threshold – normal band of
tolerance for impacts
• magnitude - peak deviation from
threshold
• duration – time threshold exceeded
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Hazard Magnitude and
Duration: Implications
• changes to any of threshold,
magnitude or duration effects
impacts
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Hazard Voluntariness
• typically involuntary exposure to
hazards evokes highest concern
?
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Definitions
Risk
• a measure of threat to humans
(typically) posed by a hazard
• product of magnitude of loss and
probability of occurrence
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Definitions
Disaster (Smith, 1991; Quarantelli, 1998)
• event concentrated in time and space
• community experiences severe
danger/disruption
• widespread human, material,
environmental losses
• exceeds ability of community to
cope – social stress
• external assistance required
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Questions
• Identify hazards that are low risk.
• Identify hazards that that are high
risk.
• Identify hazards that are not
disasters.
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Damage from Hazards
• cannot mitigate all hazards, so must
prioritize
• typically, the rank-order is:
– humans (death, injury disease, stress)
– goods (property, economic loss)
– environment – (loss flora, fauna, soils)
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Damage from Hazards and Risk
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Perception of Risk and Impact
• frequency, hence probability, of
disasters is typically low
• < 0.01% of US population dies from
severe natural disasters
• < 0.5% of budgets spend on disaster
relief
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Impact by Disaster Type
• number of event, and people affected,
and people killed varies greatly by
disaster type
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Typology of of Hazards/Disasters
• Numerous schemes for categorizing
hazards/disasters
• Choice of typology depends
somewhat on the goals at hand (e.g.,
research, emergency preparedness,
policy development)
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Typology of of Hazards/Disasters
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Typology of Hazards/Disasters
• Typical: according to geophysical
processes (technological tacked on
end)
• e.g., endogenous earth origin
(volcanoes, earthquakes) vs
exogenous earth origin (floods,
avalanches)
• non-geophysical characteristics more
useful (after Burton et al.)
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areal extent of damage
intensity of impact
duration of impact
rate of onset
predictability
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Exercise
• Outline two hazards/disasters
according to the following 5 nongeophysical characteristics (a
scenario):
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areal extent of damage
intensity of impact
duration of impact
rate of onset
predictability
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Typology of Hazards/Disasters
Event Sequences and Intervention
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Typology of Hazards/Disasters
Gains and Losses
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Hazard/Disaster
Vulnerability and Resiliency
Vulnerability
• a measure of the inability of
individuals or groups to cope with a
hazard/disaster
Resiliency
• a measure of the ability to recover
from stressful (hazard) experience
• capacity to absorb and “return to
normal”
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Hazard/Disaster Vulnerability
• Who are most vulnerable to hazards
and why?
• Who are most resilient to hazards
and why?
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