Transcript Slide 1

Business Plan
Engineering design and production of
bipedal walking robots
in price bracket 300-2500 $
OWNERS
Name
Address
City, ST ZIP Code
Telephone
E-Mail
http:
Alexander Evdokimov
Russia, Tomsk,
Tomsk, Tomsk region, 634003
+79016101432
[email protected]
www.robotics.tom.ru
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I Table of Contents
I. Table of Contents ……….. 2
VI. Competition ……………….16
II. Problem ………………..….. 3
Bipedal walking robots …......16
Bipedal physical simulator ... 18
Educational robotic kits….…. 4
Hobby’s and toy’s robots ….. 5
VII. Product ….......………….… 19
III. Solution ………...………….. 6
VIII. Business Model ………. 21
IV. Why Now …….….………… 7
IX. Team ………………………. 24
Equipment ………..……..….... 7
Algorithms and software ….... 8
Model ……………….….…...... 9
V. Market Size ………………..12
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II Problem
Nowadays, the market is being filled with small and
inexpensive biped robots, but the demands of full-scale
devices by obtainable price are not covered.
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Educational robotic kits
Last years there observed the forming and a dynamic development of
inexpensive educational lightweight small-scale robots market. These
devices are mainly used for study, modeling and engineering of designing
approaches for full-scale apparatus. Functionality of similar models is
quite equal with full-scale robots. Number of degrees of freedom of some
of them is estimated at tens and is not cardinally different from full-scale
apparatuses.
At the same time these similar apparatuses move awkwardly and often
unsteadily. And the essential distinctions in size do not allow transferring
of their algorithm to full-scale apparatus without improving.
But the cost of full-scale apparatuses is two-three orders higher than small
robots offered in the market. That prevents their access to educational
organizations.
Thus, there are small-scale robots on the market for engineering of fullscale apparatuses and there are no the later in obtainable price bracket.4
Hobby’s and toy’s walking robots
Steady decreasing in price of microprocessors, servo drives, sensors and
the improving of their specifications has extended the scientific-educational
market of walking robots up to arcade machines market.
At present this market offers tens of models and keeps developing very
dynamically.
However, there are no full-scale models in the market as before, because
of absence of production technology in obtainable price bracket. It should
be noted that the market has a great potential capacity and its vector is
directed towards extension of functionality, enlargement of sizes and
decrease in value.
Thereby, the requirement of full-scale walking robots in obtainable price
bracket is not less than in education and the market development potential
is much more impressive.
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III Solution
The solution includes engineering design and production
of full-scale inexpensive robots
The absence of straight-walking full-scale and inexpensive robots on the
market can be explained by limitations of technologies, which are used at
present. These technologies include implementation of so called static
balance in which the balance is kept when driving gears stop at every
moment of time.
It requires precise positioning of moving elements of the apparatus and it
leads to necessity of usage of powerful driving gears and high-precision
mechanics. All that set a high value and prevent from marketing of such
apparatuses.
It is offered here to use the balance based on dynamics. It sharply brings
power and precision specifications down and allows production of full-scale
biped walking robots in the price line demanded on the market and close to
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small-scale apparatuses – 2500-6000 $.
IV Why Now
There appeared the elements on the market, which are
required for dynamic balance implementation
in obtainable prices.
Equipment
Serially produced servo drives possess the required power, correlation of
powerfulness and weight, satisfactory time of answerback the control
signals and acceptable cost. (HSR-5980SG, HS-7980TH).
Microprocessors, offered on the market, possess sufficient productivity and
functionality, acceptable level of energy consumption and acceptable cost.
(Atmel ATMega 1284PV or ARM line).
Also there offered a range of necessary sensors on the market, which have
specifications sufficient for dynamic balance implementation. (CRS-09).
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Algorithms and Software
Algorithms design of dynamic balance of full-scale and inexpensive robots
is the key-problem of this project.
At present there worked out and published enough information for making
of mathematical models and complementary control algorithms. (CLAWAR,
Mechanics…).
This project began with a model design.
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Model
At the initial stage of designing the model was made in order to assess the
possibility of making such apparatuses with required specifications.
Algorithms of dynamic balance maintenance were developed specially for
this model.
Testing shows that the model is able to walk straight at a speed of 1.2
kilometers per hour.
Cost of basic components is 590 $:
Microprocessors
Servos
AT86RF230
AT90USB1287
ATMega 3290PV
ATMega 1284PV
ATMega 1280
HiTec HS-805BB 7
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1
2
2
1
Hyroscopes
gyros Fatuba Gy401
AVR RZRaven used to provide remoter radio control and remoter
reprogramming by air.
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The analysis of model designing and testing results allows
making the following resume:
• Center-of-mass overpatching in some elements and using lighter and more
powerful driving gears allow steadiness increasing and speeding up of the
apparatus. (HS-7980TH or HSR-5980SG can be used with weight – 62g
and torque – 30 kg/cm instead of used HiTec HS-805BB with weight –
152g and torque – 24.7 kg/cm. )
• Usage of biaxial mechanical sensors of angles on the foot increases the
steadiness of apparatus and extends its functionality up to the possibility of
foot elimination. It makes possible to produce less expensive apparatuses
which have no analogs on the market.
• It takes a lot of time to design a mathematical model, appropriate
algorithms and their adaptation to the real apparatus. The time can be
shorten by means of designing and using of special bipedal walking dynamic
simulator.
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• Further designing of movements algorithms, based on passive dynamic
walking theory makes it possible to reduce considerably the electric power
consumption and apparatus weight due to reducing of accumulators mass.
That reduces the total cost.
• Usage of multifunctional turn-mill equipment in engineering of
experimental models allows speeding up the process of apparatus
production and modification.
Thus, at present, there is the required equipment and the team for model
designing, which is enough qualified for designing and developing of
required algorithms of dynamic balance in the market.
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V Market Size
Recent years have seen the development of a significant personal robot
market beyond just toys, although even in entertainment robots (toys), there
has been substantial improvement over the wind-up robots of the past.
A wider range of task robots is on the market and in development, and
entertainment robots have expanded in capability and fallen in price as well.
The world traditional toy market (not including video game, hardware and
software) is $75.1 billion in 2008. In the activity/construction toy market, the
robotic toy is undoubtedly the emerging segment that attracts more attention.
At present, Robots used in education and entertainment such as Robotis
Bioloid can provide modular motion and remote sensor system. And the
educational kits are designed for pure fun and for educational competitions
that allow students put together modules in innovative ways to create their
designs. People are able to organize their robots in a creative manner such
as singing, dancing and fighting. Educational robots are believed to stimulate
innovation of children. Furthermore, creativity is set to be stimulated by the
modular systems that are available to students in the robotic community. 12
Educational robots can be used by every level of student. Different kits are
geared to various age and skill levels. And robotics competitions are being
held for every age level. Students do not yet receive formal education on
robots and are more likely to enter competitions as clubs competing against
each other representing different educational institutions.
According to the report (Educational and Entertainment Robot Market
Strategy, Market Shares, and Market Forecasts, 2008-2014, Wintergreen
Research , March 1, 2008, Pub ID: WGR1724666 ), markets for educational
robotic kits at 541,000 units in 2007 are anticipated to reach 35.8 million units
by 2014. As the price comes down due to the lower cost of chip and schools
begin to institutionalize robotics programs, there is very fast growth
anticipated. Growth at the low end robotic kits starts to level off as demand
increases for robots with more components and more functionality. Markets
for educational robotic kits at $27.5 million in 2007 are anticipated to reach
$1.69 billion by 2014.
Robot entertainment and educational markets at $184.9 million in 2007 are
anticipated to reach $2.985 billion by 2014. The only entertainment market is
estimated to be $1.85 billion in 2014 according to a new market research
report (by http://snipsly.com/2010/05/18/marketsandmarkets-global-service13
robotics-market-worth-u-s-21-billion-by-2014).
Market growth is spurred by the evolution of a new technology useful in a
range of industry segments. The educational and entertainment robots
represent a first step in the evolution of the robotic markets because they
provide the teaching aspect of the market that precedes any other market
evolution in the services and mobility segments of consumer robotics.
According to the report from RobotShop (http://www.robotshop.ca/robot-kitsdevelopment-platforms-reference.html), the world’s leading source for
domestic and professional robot technology, there are three kinds of
educational and entertainment robotic toy kits on the current market: beginner,
intermediate, and advanced kits. Beginner are especially made for those who
are still new to robotics; intermediate robot kits are principally made for the
robot hobbyist who has intermediate knowledge in robotics; advanced robots
kits are employ more complicated designs and structures and require more
knowledge of robotics like humanoid robotic toys.
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Projections about the overall market opportunity for personal robots range
dramatically. According to a 2009 report by ABI Research
(http://www.abiresearch.com ), by the year 2015 personal robot sales in the
U.S. will exceed $5B. ABI’s report singles out North America as the largest
market for personal robots right now, followed by Japan where the culture
embraces robots. Western Europe will grow to become a significant market,
but Europeans are interested less in the cachet of owning a robot, and more
in how well the robot performs its task.
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VI Competition
Bipedal walking robots
There are no analogs of the offered for designing and production apparatus. But the
producers of small straight walking robots as well as developers of full-scale
apparatuses can be considered as potential competitors.
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Table: Bipedal humanoid robots
investigation project
Honda ASIMO
Sony QRIO
TOYOTA
Fujitsu HOAP-3
university project
iCub
WABIAN-2R
HRP-2
HRP-3
HRP-4C
KHR-1
RHOBAN
commercial project
PINO
Nao
TOPIO
on market - robo kit
RoboNova
KONDO KHR-2HV
KONDO KHR-1HV
KT-X
BIOLOID
LEGO Mindstorms NXT
LEGO Mindstorms NXT 2
Manoi-PF01
Plen
Robophilo
RBT-1
Robovie-X
SPC-101C
Origin
Date
Height
Mass
Degrees of freedom (DOF) Price
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
2005
2003
130 cm
60 cm
120cm
60 cm
54 kg
7.3 kg
35 kg
9 kg
DOF34
EU
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
France
in progress 60 cm
2006
150cm
2002
154 cm
160cm
2009
158 cm
2004
34cm
2007
42 cm
64 kg
58 kg
68 kg
43 kg
1.2 kg
Japan
France
Vietnam
2003
70 cm
in progress 58 cm
5.5 kg
4.3 kg
DOF 25
in progress 188 cm
in progress 56 cm
120 kg
4 kg
DOF39
DOF26
2005
2006
2006
2008
2006
2006
2009
2007
2006
2007
2006
2008
2008
32 cm
34 cm
38 cm
33 cm
34 cm
38 cm
1.2 kg
1.3 kg
1.5 kg
1.5 kg
2 kg
DOF16
DOF17
DOF19
DOF17
DOF18
40 cm
23 cm
33 cm
30 cm
34 cm
33 cm
2 kg
0.7 kg
1.2 kg
0.9 kg
1.3 kg
1.5 kg
DOF17
DOF18
DOF20
DOF20
DOF17
DOF22
Korea
Japan
Japan
USA
Korea
Denmark
Denmark
Japan
Japan
USA
Japan
Japan
Japan
2005
DOF28
DOF53
DOF41
DOF30
DOF42
DOF17
DOF22
about $300,000
200,000$
1600$
17500$
1300$
1050$
1750$
950-1500$
900-3000$
420$
280$
1900$
2500$
400-500$
1400$
1200$
3000$
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Bipedal physical simulator
During engineering it is planned to design a specialized bipedal walking
dynamic simulator based on ODE (Open Dynamic Engine). This simulator is
the key-element of algorithm adjustment. And in future it can be taken as an
independent product offered for sale.
There are no specialized biped robots simulators on the market but there are
general physical simulators. In such a case the company Cyberbotics Ltd
with the product Webots made on ODE basis can be considered as the
principal competitor. So as the companies Nvidia with the PhysX product and
Microsoft with Robotics Developer Studio. The last two products serve more
for games designing and they are far from straight walking simulation.
There is no information about plans of bipedal locomotion simulator
designing in Cyberbotics Ltd company.
In the near future this project is not inclined putting of bipedal simulator as a
commercial product on the market. And there are no such products on the
market at all.
However, production of such simulator with pre-established algorithms of
straight walking by any other company can be considered as a certain threat
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for the project.
VII Product
The final products of the project are the following components:
• Mathematical model of biped walking locomotion based on dynamic
balance maintenance.
• Specialized bipedal walking dynamic simulator based on ODE (Open
Dynamic Engine).
• Technical documentation of the device required for production.
• Software product for device control assigned for the end user.
• Site and customer support service.
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The project is planning the organization of final product short-run production.
Final product technical documentation mainly depends on the results of
device control algorithms design made on the basis of bipedal simulator
during the first 6 months after the project starts. Preliminary results received
at initial stage allow drawing a conclusion about possibility of usage only 4
servo drives which maintain steady walking of full-scale device.
In case of the results confirmation final device arranging will be much more
simplified and it makes possible to produce full-scale robots in lower price
bracket. Otherwise the worked out classical design of developed model will
be used.
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VIII Business Model
In order to put the project into practice it is suggested establishing a separate
Russian company as “Ltd. Company”, where the investor is a cofounder and
forms the authorized capital stock of 750 000$. The owners of the project
invest a nominal amount of 400$. So it is fixed in company regulation that
investor’s share in profit is of 25%, and owners of the project – 75%.
Company scope of activity corresponds with the requirements of free
economic zone currently in force in Tomsk region territory. That is why it is
planned to join the zone for tax saving, reduction of duties, lowering of place
leasing charge and free access to high-tech equipment. It is a great
advantage if a manufacturing area and a suitable infrastructure are available.
(At this stage all the target numbers in appendix are given in a pessimistic
variant without specific character of entering free economic zone.)
Completion of all required documentation for production and completion of all
preliminaries are planned during the first 24 months. Including: specimen
product, required components suppliers, assembly techniques and certain
customers.
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During the next 12 months it is planned to produce and sale no less than
14000 specimen products with profitability 30%. So the investor’s net profit
with a glance of his share of 25% will be 1500 000 $. After 36 months since
the beginning of company establishment the investor will have the right to
walk out the company getting back the investments of 750 000$.
Also it is assumed in the project the possibility of additional financing
attraction to authorized capital stock for account of reduction of the project
owner’s participation (share) in the profits. (when minimizing his share of
75%).
As it was mentioned before there is a possibility to receive positive results of
device production with less number of servo drives keeping the required
functionality. In this case there is a possibility to start preparation for
manufacturing much earlier, in 12-16 months instead of 24. We can evaluate
this probability of 0.5 (50%).
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You can see finance indicators for the first 24 months in the appendix. In
case of investor’s interest there will be given financial information for the
next last 12 months in details.
The owners of the project are ready for discussion and if it is necessary for
changing of some regulations of business model in case if the changes are
due to the standard conditions of venture financing in the USA.
The project assumes maximal transparency of financial and other fields of
the company for all owners during its developing. For that purpose it is
provided the obligatory monthly financial account close to international
standard format.
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IX Team
Project development was started by the group of programmers enthusiasts of
3 persons.
All the participants have 4 -9 years experience of working in Silicon Valley
departments (russian branches) in positions from senior software engineer up
to principal software engineer and head office. All of them are highly-qualified.
All the participants worked in start up companies and they are able to realize
the high working loads at the initial stage.
Résumés of the staff are in the appendix.
Besides, a radio electronics engineer who has a high level of knowledge and
experience in this field took part in the project development.
During pre-project period consultations and discussions of dynamic balance
problems and their solutions are constantly taking place with friends and
colleagues - Tomsk universities teachers.
It should be noted that there are 6 Universities in Tomsk and every 5th citizen
is a student. So there is no an acute problem with searching of qualified
personnel.
Thus, there is a designing and managing team for the initial period. Other
specialists can be hired as the need arises according to the stage of the
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project development.