Transcript Renewable Energy Project Development

Renewable Energy
Project Development
by CASINDO Team West Nusa Tenggara
The last meeting TWG IV
Grand Candi the Gallery Hotel Semarang, 09 July 2011
Outline of Presentation
Executive Summary
Market analysis
Product description
Regulatory setting
Project management
Technical feasibility
Financial analysis
Risk analysis and contingency planning
Executive Summary
What are you planning to implement?
The proposed renewable energy project to be
developed under the Casindo TWG IV in WNT is
household biogas.
Where are you planning to implement?
Jeruk Manis is the name of the target location
chosen for the implementation of the renewable
energy project in the program Casindo.
Executive Summary (Cont’)
Who will conduct the implementation?
To implement the project, the Casindo team in
WNT has partnered with Hivos and its BIRU
program. The biogas digester contruction will be
conducted by BIRU Lombok, in collaboration
with construction partner organization, namely
“Yayasan Mandiri Membangun Masyarakat
Sejahtera (YM3S)” and managed by Casindo
project Faculty of Engineering University of
Mataram.
Executive Summary (Cont’)
How will the project be implemented? With
what funds or what funds does it need?
Project of biogas technology will build in a self
funding from people of meet criteria established
by the BIRU program. Then the number of
households that are eligible to be selected as the
target of the program were 63 families;
Nowday, BIRU Lombok not yet getting financial
institution to provide the credit in biogas
digester construction, so that funds originated
from vilagers and subsidy from Hivos.
Executive Summary (Cont’)
Why is it desirable for the project to be
implemented? What benefits will it bring?
If the project to be implemented, very
desirable many benefits for poor people in
location target and its project suistain for the
long time;
BIRU program will have broad effects of
health conditions and job creation as well as
the local economy.
Section 2:
Market analysis
Map of selected location
Sikur District,
East Lombok,
WNT.
08o 34'21.50''N
116o25'22.17'' E
Natural resources of selected location
Demographic profile
Number of population and household :
Population
Male
Female
Total
No of
Household
991
1.042
2.033
761
Barang Panas
303
320
623
237
Kebun Baru
310
315
625
240
Gawah Buak
378
407
785
284
Village/Sub Village
Jeruk Manis (total)
Source: Data villages Jeruk Manis in October 2010
Demographic profile
Size of household & Age structure:
Size of household
1 – 3 person
4 – 6 person
> 7 person
Percent (%)
30
62
8
Source: Data villages Jeruk Manis in October 2010
Age structure (year)
Children & adolescents : < 17 tahun
Adult
: 18 s/d 50 tahun
Elderly
: > 50 tahun
Source: Data villages Jeruk Manis in October 2010
Percent (%)
25
76
9
Educational profile
Number of educational facilities :
Village
Jeruk Manis
Number of Educational Facilities
Junior High
Elementary
High School
School
2
1
-
Number of villagers with completed schooling :
Village
Jeruk Manis
Number of villagers with completed schooling
High school Bachelor degree University
186
4
8
Source: Data villages Jeruk Manis in October 2010
Educational profile
Number of students currently enrolled in schools :
Village
Jeruk Manis
Number of students currently enrolled in schools
Elementary Junior high
High
University
school
school
school
308
158
50
7
Source: Data villages Jeruk Manis in October 2010
Economic profile
Employment sectors and number of employees :
Village
Jeruk Manis
Employment sectors
Farmer
391
Trade
32
Government
5
Source: Data villages Jeruk Manis in October 2010
Craftsman
40
Economic profile
The unemployment rate in this region has reached
20-25%.
Households that serve as the target location for
Casindo activities are classified as poor.
Average household income is IDR 5.291.222, 00 per
year or IDR. 440.935,00 per month.
There are 189 households receive government
subsidies (BLT) is IDR 200.000,00/families per
month.
Economic profile
Average household expenditures :
Type of expenditures
Food
Energy
School fees
Total
IDR per year
4.125525,30
458.391,70
0,00
4.583.917
IDR per month
343.793,70
38.199,30
0,00
381.993
(Source: Need assesment questionnaire carry out for this project)
Energy profile
Energy use pattern emerged :
The main energy source for cooking is
firewood, mainly collected free of charge in
the surrounding forest area;
The main energy source for lighting are
kerosene and electricity;
The main energy source for vehicles is
gasoline.
Energy profile
Energy expenditures per fuel type :
Energy
service
Cooking
Lighting
Lighting
Lighting
Average cost
Average monthly (in IDR, at the Total monthly
Fuel type
consumption
time of
cost
writing)
wood
55,8 bundle
IDR 0,00
IDR 0,00
kerosene
lamp
Electricity
(Solar PV)
Electricity
(MHP)
13,37 litre
0,84 kWh
(100W x 12 hour
x 30 day) =
IDR 6.000 per IDR 80.220
litre
IDR 10.000
IDR 10.000
per month*
IDR 5.000 per IDR 5.000
month*
* Energy prices are fixed per month, it is not per 1 kWh
Current energy provision
Energy supply and its historical growth rate :
Type of energy
Wood
Energy supply
(bundle/litre/watthour)
Remark
cooking
Electricity (solar PV)
18,6 bundle per month
x 761 families
± 10, 187 litre per
month
650 Wpeak x 8 hour
Electricity (MHP)
18 kW x 12 hour
lighting
Kerosene
cooking
&lighting
lighting
Estimate of total demand for the
proposed technology
The technology proposed to be developed in Casindo
TWG IV is household biogas.
The total demand for energy comes from 761
households.
There are 63 families which have 3 or more cows
and 137 families have 1 – 2 cows.
So the percentage of people who use firewood and
kerosene remains large at 73,72%.
Estimate of total demand for the
proposed technology
No.
1
2
3
Village/Subvillage
Barang Panas
Kebun Baru
Gawah Buak
Total
Number of families have cows
Total
3 or more 1 - 2
Families
cows
cows Nothing
7
18
212
237
34
65
141
240
22
54
208
284
761
63
137
561
Section 3:
Product description
Introduction of the product
The product proposed under Casindo TWG IV in
WNT is household biogas;
Household biogas digesters convert animal dung
and various other organic materials into
combustible methane gas know as biogas;
The
proposed
technology
would
be
implemented in partnership with Hivos (BIRU
program)
Introduction of the product (Cont’)
The BIRU program promotes the use of biogas to fulfill
the daily needs of fuel for cooking.
Meeting the family cooking fuel needs with biogas is
very satisfying, it can replace the role of firewood or
kerosene.
Reactors owners are no longer spending time looking
for firewood in the forest and not spend money to buy
kerosene.
In July 2010, the BIRU program started running in WNT.
By July 2011, the program has been able to build about
100 biogas reactors on Lombok Island.
Technology description
The reactor components :
Technology description
The installation of a biogas reactors :
Technology description
The technical design of a typical biogas reactor :
Technology description
Model, size and lifetime :
The model used is based on the model of
cement biogas digester used in Nepal (SNI
Indonesia).
The household size reactors can be of 4, 6, 8,
10, 12 m3.
With proper care, biogas reactors are
expected to stay safe for 20 - 30 years
Technology description
Estimated cost of the biogas reactor :
Sizes (m3)
4
6
8
10
12
No of Cows
3
4-5
6
7-8
9
Total kg of manure per day
30
45
60
75
90
Gas produced (m3)
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
Duration of use to stove (hour)
4
6
8
10
12
Construction cost (IDR million)
5,7
6,3
7
8
8,8
2
2
2
2
2
3,7
4,3
5
6
6,8
Subsidies from Hivos(IDR million)
The cost to be paid by
user/household (IDR million)
Construction process
The construction sequence of a biogas digester :
Construction process
The construction sequence of a biogas digester :
Construction process
The construction sequence of a biogas digester :
• Availability of skilled builders for the
construction of the reactor is a key condition
of the BIRU program. In every area of work,
BIRU carries out training for local builders by a
professional trainer. The goal is to have in
each work area professional local builders
who have ID cards. In Lombok, BIRU has
31professional builders and 9 supervisors.
Economic benefits
The biogas digesters installed through the BIRU program will
have broad effects on health conditions and job creation as well
as the local economy, including:
Strengthen the integration of agriculture and cattle breeding for the
improvement of agricultural resources
Creating jobs in the biogas construction sector
Strengthen food security by improving agricultural output through the use
of biogas slurry
Reducing deforestation
Controlling greenhouse gas emissions from livestock and organic waste
disposal
Recycling of nutrients and restore soil fertility
Promoting environmental awareness and link it to economic advantage
Social benefits
Reducing the burden of women to collect firewood;
Improving sanitation and reducing diseases
associated with poor sanitation;
Reducing air pollution from smoke generated by
burning firewood for cooking;
Improving sanitation and hygiene education.
Section 4:
Regulatory setting
Relevant policies :
Policies /
Programs
National level :
Substitution of
kerosene with
LPG;
Phase-out
subsidy for
kerosene &
provide (free of
charge) LPG
system to the
poor.
Policy objectives
Implementation
Main obj.
Secondary obj.
To date
Future
Lower the cost
of subsidizing
fuel (for the
government)
To reserve the
kerosene for
use in transport
(instead of
cooking); to
support the use
of gas, which is
the more
abundant fuel
in Indonesia
In Lombok,
this measure
should start
in 2010 with
500 000
households.
(256
households
in Jeruk
Manis)
Will likely
be fully
implement
ed
Policy
objective likely
to be achieved
Yes, in the
longer term it
will cost the
government
less to
subsidize gas
than it would
cost to keep
subsidizing
kerosene.
Relevant policies (Cont’) :
Policies /
Programs
Regional or
local level :
Self-sustain
energy village
(Desa Mandiri
Energi):
60% of the
community
energy needs is
provided by
local resources
Policy objectives
Main obj.
Secondary obj.
To provide
To reduce fuel
energy supply oil
for
underdevelop
communities ,
to diversify
energy source,
to introduce
productive
activity,
increase job
opportunities.
Implementation
To date
20 target
location of
DME until
2013
Future
Policy
objective likely
to be achieved
Will be
Mixed result
implement
ed
Relevant policies (Cont’) :
Policy objectives
Policies /
Programs
Main obj.
Secondary obj.
Implementation
Policy
objective
likely to
To date Future
be
achieved
Regional or
local level :
A million cows ( Program acceleration the o Rural income,
One
Will be
BSS)
development of animal
meet the needs million implem
farms with more priority
of national meat. cows
ented
to the empowerment of o Meets the
populati
local resources with the
demand for cows on in
aim that as soon as
for other
2012
possible to achieve the
regions.
optimum population in
o Meet the needs
accordance with the
of meat
carrying capacity of the
consumption in
region.
the region
Section 5:
Project management
Description of the project champion
Mr. Umar is Coordinator of the BIRU program in
Lombok, WNT;
The BIRU program are managed and
implemented by Hivos and SNV Netherlands
Development Organisation;
The BIRU program is run by a small team of
professionals consisting of a Coordinator, Quality
Auditor, Promoter, as well as administration and
finance staff.
His experience :
Mr. Umar has experience working in Care
Indonesia from 1992 until 2010. His
experience in the field of renewable energy is
to build the biogas in East Nusa Tenggara
province;
Since July 2010 up to now join with Hivos in
BIRU Lombok.
His motivation in BIRU program :
BIRU program Lombok targets 256 unit
digester in 2011.
Additional of a new CPO and training
professional builder and supervisor.
Extending the work area in North Lombok
regency, also new district in previous
regency.
Description of the project team
BIRU representatives in Lombok consist of a
Coordinator, Quality Auditor, Promoter as well as
administration and finance staff;
Construction partner organisation (CPO), in East
Lombok, Hivos cooperates with an NGO named
YM3S (has 3 supervisor and 10 professional
builders);
Casindo team from University of Mataram provided
support to the program by conducting prepreparation and socialization in Jeruk Manis village.
Organization of the project
BIRU
(Biogas Rumah)
Construction Partner
Organisation (YM3S)
CASINDO Project
Mr. UMAR
Coordinator BIRU
Lombok
TURMUZI
Supervisor
ABDUL NATSIR
PIC TWG IV
M. ALI IKHSAN
Promotion Staff
USER
Section 6:
Technical feasibility
Technical requirements of the technology
Input requirements
Cattle dung 20-30 kg per day (at least 3 cows) for a
biogas reactor of 4 m3 and 6 m3 and the availability
of adequate water for manure and water ratio (1: 1)
Space requirements
Sizes (M3)
Space requirement (M x M)
4
6
8
10
12
(3 x 6)
(3,5 x 7)
4x8
4,5 x 9
5 x 10
Technical requirements of the technology
Other requirements
Maximum allowed distance is 200 meters between
biogas reactor with a kitchen.
Closest distance ever is 12 meters, but in the
implementation of the reactor can be done under the
kitchen.
Biogas reactor can work at ambient temperature, best
at a temperature of 35oC.
Availability of input requirements in
the selected location
There are 63 households which have 3 or
more cows.
Water availability in the selected location is
also sufficient.
The households have sufficient space to
install the digesters
Output
Under normal conditions, a BIRU biogas
reactor will produce gas that has a gas
pressure of 50 - 80 cm of water (measure
unit of biogas pressure).
2 days after full charging has begun to burn,
and cook with blue flame and faster than
kerosene stove.
Section 7:
Financial analyses
Capital costs (are Planning and
Construction or Pre-operation costs)
BIRU program is covering the planning and
pre-operational
cost
including
final
enginering design and also worker training.
There are no additional planning costs related
to the installation of biogas digesters
Operating costs
Estimated number of digesters to be installed
each year :
Number of digester
(unit)
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
25
25
10
3
Total
63
Operating costs
OPERATING COSTS
1
Year 1
General and Administrative
Costs
17,650,000
2 Labor costs
3 Material costs
TOTAL
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
17,500,000
7,000,000
2,100,000
27,060,000
26,625,000
10,650,000 3,195,000
87,842,000
86,675,000
34,670,000 10,401,000
132,552,000
130,800,000 52,320,000 15,696,000
Grants and subsidies
Grants and
Subsidies
1
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Casindo preoperation support
2 Hivos subsidies
Subtotal
TOTAL all years
100,000,000
50,000,000 50,000,000 -
-
50,000,000 50,000,000 -
-
Revenues
Revenues
R1 Revenue from 4 m3
Units
Revenue per Unit
R2 Revenue from 6 m3
Units
Revenue per Unit
REVENUES
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
71,104,000
80,800,000
52,320,000
15,696,000
22
25
10
3
3,232,000
3,232,000
5,232,000
5,232,000
11,448,000
-
-
-
3
-
-
-
3,816,000
3,816,000
5,816,000
5,816,000
82,552,000
80,800,000
52,320,000
15,696,000
Cash flow
TOTALS
COSTS (& GRANTS/SUBSIDIES)
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Capital Cost
Cc
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Capital / pre-operation grants
Gc
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Operating costs
Co
0.0
132,552,000.0
130,800,000.0
52,320,000.0
15,696,000.0
Operating grants
Go
0.0
50,000,000.0
50,000,000.0
0.0
0.0
TOTAL COSTS
TC = (Cc-Gc)+(Co-Go)
0.0
82,552,000.0
80,800,000.0
52,320,000.0
15,696,000.0
0.0
73,707,142.9
64,413,265.3
37,240,342.6
9,975,091.8
0.0
82,552,000.0
80,800,000.0
52,320,000.0
15,696,000.0
0.0
73,707,142.9
64,413,265.3
37,240,342.6
9,975,091.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
NPV TOTAL COSTS (discount rate =
12%)
NPV TC = TC / (1+disc
= year of operation
rate)t; t
12%
185,335,842.5
BENEFITS
Revenues
NPV revenues
R
NPV R = R / (1+disc
year of operation
rate)t; t
=
12%
185,335,842.5
Interest
Taxes
Depreciation
NET INCOME
NIt = Rt -TCt
Accumulated Income*
AIt = AIt-1 + NIt
rate)t; t
NPV NET INCOME
NPV NI = NI / (1+disc
= year of operation
Benefit/cost Ratio
B/C ratio = NPV R / NPV TC
12%
0.0
1.000
Section 8:
Risk analysis & contingency
planning
Completion risk
There are several things that can cause delays in the
construction of the biogas digesters although funds were
available, including:
The cost of cement: cement is a very significant material in
the construction of a biogas digester, and if cement prices
increase by the run cause delayed biogas digester
construction.
Some of the professional mason (trained for this job) might
go after another job that is more promising (where cost of
labour is higher) compared with standard from HIVOS.
CPO or Hivos could be late in responding to users who are
interested to build a biogas digester.
Technology risk
The biogas digester technology used in the BIRU program
gets a warranty for 3 years.
The BIRU program is almost 100% successful in building
biogas digesters which are operating properly on the
Lombok island. Thus the risk of the technology not
performing well is negligible.
So far, the BIRU program in Lombok only had problems
with 1 user, where the inserted cow manure did not
produce gas for 7 days. That means that the only plausible
technology risk is possible wrong mixing of manure.
This risk can be eliminated with a proper socialization
process and a user manual.
Supply risk
The materials needed to build a biogas
digester are available in adequate quantity
around the location, so there is no risk of
supply shortage of construction material.
A more possible risk is delay of delivery of
components for biogas stoves. Biogas stoves
are imported from outside the area
(Bandung).
Economic risk
There is a real risk that people in the village can not
the pay for the biogas digester, because the price to
build a biogas digester is 3 million IDR and more (after
the subsidy).
Average income per month of the villagers is very low,
so most households cannot afford it. The Hivos
subsidy is not sufficient to build a biogas digester.
Economic risk would be smaller if there are support
from the government, cooperatives, banks, other
financial institutions to build a biogas digester through
soft loans or credit.
Financial risk
Changes in interest rates would cause
financial risk to occur.
Historical growth shows that interest rates in
Indonesia are relatively stable (constant) so
that the financial risk is very small.
Political risk
The political framework at the regional level in WNT
did not change rules and regulations relevant for the
implementation of the BIRU program in Lombok.
Instead the local government is supporting the
implementation of the biogas digester program,
because the government's main priority now is the
utilization of renewable energy.
In addition, local governments have a program which
aims to achieve one million cows population (BSS) in
WNT, which fits well with the BIRU program.
Environmental risk
Biogas digesters have no negative environmental impact
on the community or a user, but several positive impacts,
including:
dirty cages and cows that used to disturb the
environment, are now clean, tidy and do not represent
a health hazard.
The smoke from wood stoves and fuel oil which can
harm the health, is now replaced by a clean and safe
cooking fuel.
Less pressure on forests around the village which are
harvested by residents looking for firewood.
Social risk
Implementation of biogas can be burdened by possible
social risks for some people, namely:
Residents who have not obtained the education and
socialization of the benefits of biogas still think of it as
a taboo / unclean use of cow dung. So that important
to carry out more socialization.
The implementation schedule can create jealousy with
those that cannot afford a digester, or towards those
that get it first to etc.
Force majeure risk
Force majeure risk that may occur is the
occurrence of earthquakes, volcanic eruption,
or landslide.
Generally, often occurrence of earthquakes in
Lombok island, but the scale under 5.0 SR
and the occurrence of volcanic eruption or
landslide not occur in last 10 year.
The next activity
Many efforts to find credits institution to
build biogas digester.
Communicate with our government related
funds to build biogas digester, especially with
Regional Development Bank (WNT Bank).
Communicate with Newmont Nusa Tenggara
(NNT) related their CSR in renewable energy.
Etc…