Transcript Model Development
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN COUNCIL MODEL ENHANCEMENTS FOR THE RED LINE PROJECT
AMPO TRAVEL MODEL WORK GROUP March 20, 2006
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
BMC Enhanced Model –Background
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Update to the Baltimore region travel demand model
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MTA provided funding
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Developed by William G. Allen with assistance from BMC staff Motivation/Goal
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Revised mode choice model to meet FTA technical analysis of user benefits utilizing SUMMIT
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Analysis of proposed Red Line to request New Starts funding
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Develop one regional model used for long/short range regional planning, regional conformity analysis, and FTA new starts analysis Baltimore Metropolitan Council
BMC Modeling Area
BMC Model Area MWCOG Jurisdictions in BMC Model Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Baltimore Region Highway and Rail Transit Systems
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
BMC Enhanced Model –Objectives
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User friendly – logical input file names Reduce off-model data preparation Reduce number of input files Incorporation of 2001 NHTS data Meet Requirements of FTA
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Remove “cliff” functions Use same coefficients for transit and auto time Eliminate geographic bias constants Produce input files for SUMMIT Baltimore Metropolitan Council
BMC Enhanced Model –Status
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Draft functioning model as of February 2006 Conducting sensitivity test designed to evaluate estimated changes in demand BMC staff developing a further understanding of the model through application, documentation, and development of user guide/local training session Extensive quality control checking of all model aspects Model runs in 9 to 10 hours (previous model 6 to 7 hours) Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Trip Generation Features
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Demographic models
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Households by size (5)/income (4)
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Urban Size (Baltimore City, DC, Montgomery, PG) Suburban Size (All Others) Urban Income (Baltimore City and DC) Suburban Income (All Others)
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Workers (4)/income (4) Workers for Washington region must be estimated based on household size and income from PUMS
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Income split is 10/15/20/55% of households (lowest to highest) Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Trip Generation Features (Cont’d)
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10 trip purposes
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Home-Based Work, Shop, Other, and School Non-Home-Based JTW, JAW, and OBO Truck CV, MTK, and HTK Nine area types based on household and employment density Trip productions by rates for different HH size/income and worker/income combinations Trip attractions by regression equation, adjusted by area type Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Trip Generation Features (Cont’d)
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Home-based I-I trip attractions normalized to match productions Non-home based trip attractions normalized to productions, then productions set equal to attractions External trip generation based on counts/projections and distance between zone and closest external X-X trips based on base year trip table Attraction split model by income Baltimore Metropolitan Council
2000 Density Codes
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
2030 Density Codes
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Trip Distribution Features
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Composite Time
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Highway, transit (2 lowest income classes, HBW, HBS, HBO), toll Simulated congested time used for HBW, JTW, free-flow time for other purposes during first pass Two loops of speed feedback for HBW and JTW trips K-factors replace barrier penalties Truck deltas applied after distribution Truck deltas now additive, not multiplicative Baltimore Metropolitan Council
K-Factor Map
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Mode Choice Features
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New transit access pre-process
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TP+, ArcInfo, Microsoft Access Create up to 9 walk links per mode, unlimited drive links within 30 minutes
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Create ½ mile buffer around local transit lines and express bus and rail stops
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Identify walk access share of each zone within buffer Determine average walk time for bus, rail, commuter rail, peak and off-peak
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Select links from those actually used in pathbuilding limited in number and distance/time Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Mode Choice Features
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New nested logit mode choice model
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Same structure for all non-school purposes Model for school trips includes a top-level school bus nest Parking cost model Three levels of auto occupancy Three transit modes Two access modes Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Mode Choice Features (Continued)
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Peak and off-peak transit networks “Freeze-dry” Washington mode choice Dummy links for DC transit access/egress Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Mode Choice Structure
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Mode Choice Model Structure Person Auto Transit (B) SR (B) SR2 SR3+ (B)
Legend
SR=Shared Ride DA=Drive Alone CRail=Commuter Rail (B)=Carries Bias Coefficent DA Walk Drive (B) Bus Rail (B) CRail (B) Bus Rail (B) CRail (B)
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Mode Choice Structure –School
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Mode Choice Model Structure Auto Person Transit (B) SR (B) SR2 SR3+ (B) DA Walk Drive (B) Bus Rail (B) CRail (B) Bus Rail (B) CRail (B) School Bus (B)
Legend
SR=Shared Ride DA=Drive Alone CRail=Commuter Rail (B)=Carries Bias Coefficent
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Assignment Features
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Fixed weights based on future equilibrium assignment First two feedback loops assign AM peak trips (6:30-9:30 a.m.) Final assignment for four time periods
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AM peak (6:30-9:30 a.m.) Midday (9:30 a.m.-3:30 p.m.) PM peak (3:30-6:30 p.m.) Night (6:30 p.m.-6:30 a.m.
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Assignment Features (Continued)
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Number of iterations
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AM peak = 14 Midday = 8 PM peak = 14 Night =6 Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Next Steps
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Test Alternatives Run SUMMIT Continue checking results Submit to FTA Document Baltimore Metropolitan Council