Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association Adelaide, 16 April 2007

The Future Environment for Energy Business Jesse H. Ausubel

Program for the Human Environment The Rockefeller University, New York City

http://phe.rockefeller.edu

Acknowledgements: D. Jenkins, P. Grant, C. Marchetti, C. Starr, N. Victor, E. Yantovski

A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.

Carbon Hydrogen Composition of “Fossil” Fuels Methane Gas

H H C H H

C:H = 1:4 Typical Oil Typical Coal

H H H H H H H H H H H C C C C C C C C C C H H H H H H H H H H H

C:H = 1:2

H C C H C C H C C C H C C C H C C H H C C C C C C H C C C H C H

C:H = 2:1

C H C H Biomass (Wood, hay) ~ 10 Cs per H !!

10 2

H / C

10 1 10 0

Decarbonization : Evolution of the Ratio of Hydrogen (H) to Carbon (C) in the World Primary Fuel Mix

Methane: H/C = 4 Oil: H/C = 2 Coal: H/C = 1

H H + C Hydrogen Economy

0.90

Nonfossil Hydrogen Methane Economy

0.80

0.67

0.50

1935 (midpoint of process)  t = 300 years (length of process) 10 -1 Wood: H/C = 0.1

0.09

10 -2 1800 1850 1900 1950

Year

2000 2050 2100 Source: Ausubel, 1996, after Marchetti, 1985

Falling Global Carbon Intensity of Primary Energy

35 30 25 20 15 20 15 10 5 0 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 0 10 5 35 30 25 Data sources: IIASA, BP (1965-2001), CDIAC http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 Hydrocarbon fuels ranked by heat value Hydrocarbon fuels ranked by heat value Natural Gas LPG Crude Oil (HHV) Crude Oil (LHV) Black Coal A Black Coal B Black Coal C Black Coal D Firewood (dry) Brown Coal A Brown Coal B 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003

Luminosity 1996 Upward light flux measured at the top of the atmosphere, low-gain version of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) data, Elvidge et al.,US National Geophysical Data Center. J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.

Luminosity if all were as luminous as Americans J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.

Increases in light flux if everyone outside USA lit like USA (1996-7) Or latent electricity demand, blue to white to red color ramp Source: Nadja Makarova Victor & Jesse Ausubel, 2004

100 US Passenger Travel Per Capita Per Day (Range) Total (average per decade) Regression Line (2.7% per year) Cars ( + Buses + Motorcycles ) 10 Walking Air 1 Trains 0.1

Horses 0.01

1880 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960 1980 Sources: US Historical Abstracts; US Statistical Abstracts; A. Gruebler 1989.

2000

A spigot in the lower left might draw off the carbon dioxide. Source: Ausubel, 2004

Efficiency increases with higher pressure and temperature.

Power Generation Efficiencies for Power Plants 1700 1500 Gas Turbine

50~55%

ZEPP 63% (projected)

ZEPP 70%

(projected)

1000 Gas Turbine

48%

Gas Turbine

43%

ZEPP 59% (projected) 500 Steam Turbine (Ultra Supercritical)

42~43%

Steam Turbine (Conventional)

38~40%

100 200 400 600 800 1000 Pressure, atmospheres Source: After Ichihara

Bankside Power Station, London Opened for power generation in 1953, became Tate Gallery in 2000 100m tall “Footprint” covers 3.5 hectares Comparably powerful plant built today could fit in 1/10 th the space

Like computers that comprise the Internet, power plants become more powerful AND SMALLER

J. Ausubel & T. Barrett, 2004

US Ballistic Research Lab computer, mid 1950s Dell laptop, 2004 Tennessee Valley Authority coal plant (date unknown) Delivery of General Electric 480 MW natural gas turbine, 2000

Source: Olav Bolland http://folk.ntnu.no/obolland

A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.

Field projects: based on geography & taxonomy

OE Expedition to the Deep Slope May 7 - June 2, 2006

First systematic exploration of hydrocarbon seep communities deeper than 1000m in the GoM

AquaPix, Bob Carney Bruce Strickrott Ian MacDonald Ian MacDonald

Collection of garbage collected in 4000m depth in the Ierapetra Basin

Hidden Ocean Discoveries

10 6 USA: Hydrogen production, 1971- 2003

semi-log scale

10 5 10 4

1965 1970 1975 1980

Year

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: N. M. Victor and J.H. Ausubel, 2006

10

Falling hydrogen price versus hydrogen production, USA, 1971-2003

1 10,000 100,000

Annual production, millions of cubic feet

1,000,000 J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2005

USA: Fossil Fuel Production Prices and H2 Price Estimates, 1970-2003

15 10 25 20 Coal Gas Crude Oil H2 Motor Gasoline 5 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2005

Major fuels ranked by heat value

10

8

10

6 Natural uranium in FBR Uranium enriched to 3.5% in LWR Natural uranium in CANDU Natural uranium in LWR Natural uranium in LWR with U & Pu recycle

10

4

10

2

10

0 0 1 2 3 Hydrogen 4 Natural Gas 5 6 7 LPG Black Coals Firewood 8 Crude Oils 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Brown Coals 16 17 18 19 20 Rank

Source: N. Victor and J. Ausubel, 2003

Energy Production Intensities

in watts per square meter

• Hydro: – Hoover Dam 0.0014

– Hydro: All US dams – Hydro: Ontario • Biomass: – ethanol from corn (net) – Ocean biomass – New England forest – Corn (whole plant) – Sugar cane (intensively farmed) • Wind • Solar thermal (actual) 0.047

0.0049

0.012

0.07 to 0.6

0.12

0.75

3.7

1.2

3.2

Nuclear Power California Coast Power

Diablo Canyon 2200 MW Power Plant

5 Miles

Wind Farm Equivalent

Source: P. Grant

2017: Australian

Methane

Production and Exploration Association Endless sea of methane photographed from Titan’s surface by probe Huygens, 14 January 2005 (ESA). See also “The Lakes of Titan,” 4 January 2007,

Nature

magazine, Stofan et al.