Transcript Northern Ireland Passenger Survey (NIPS)

EU Regulation
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Coming into force January 2012
Quality reports on data submitted
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Required annually
Data transmission
Rapid key indicators required 8 weeks after reference
period - problematic
 All other data transmissions feasible
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EU Regulation
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New data requirements – INTERNAL TOURISM
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Locality (degree of urbanisation and proximity to sea) –
annual
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Number of hotels and similar accommodation having one or
more bedrooms accessible for persons with reduced mobility,
including wheelchair users - triennial
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Nights and arrivals by residents and non-residents at camping
grounds, recreational parks and trailer parks and holidays and
other short term accommodation - monthly
EU Regulation
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New data requirements – NATIONAL
TOURISM
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All requirements currently collected via new
domestic survey and IPS
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Same day visits, number and expenditure collected
via CHS
Tourism Statistics Branch
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Established July 2010
3 NISRA Statisticians, located in DETI
Data collected by NISRA, CSU
Analysis and production of all Official Tourism
Statistics, Tourism Statistics Branch
Monthly, quarterly, annual publications
Future Work – TSA, LA estimates, further
development of current surveys
Northern Ireland Passenger Survey
COR breakdown Jan-June 2011
Visitors (%)
Great Britain
Other Europe
North America
Other
2010
85
6
4
5
2011
85
8
4
4
% change
in actual Confidence
numbers
Interval
-2%
+/- 8%
19%
+/- 13%
-3%
+/- 17%
-25%
+/- 17%
Expenditure (%)
2010
73
8
8
11
2011
69
11
8
12
% change
in actual Confidence
numbers
Interval
+8%
+/- 9%
+50%
+/- 21%
+13%
+/- 24%
+14%
+/- 51%
NIPS Purpose of Trip breakdown
Visitors (%)
VFR
Holiday
Business
Other
NK*
2010
54
20
19
3
3
2011
57
19
20
3
1
% change
in actual
numbers#
+1%
-8%
-1%
-2%
NA
Expenditure (%)
2010
45
21
29
5
2011
54
23
30
7
% change
in actual
numbers
+20%
+10%
+3%
+40%
* In 2010, there were 15,000 visitors for which purpose of trip was not known, in 2011 this number was
reduced to 2,900
# For the purpose of this analysis the NK's have been spread proportionately across the known purposes
Northern Ireland Passenger Survey
Top 5 activities whilst in NI
 Shopping (14%)
 Beaches/coastline (10%)
 Walking/rambling (9%)
 Country/forest parks & gardens (6%)
 Giant’s Causeway (5%)
30% none
Northern Ireland Passenger Survey
Closest ancestral link to island of Ireland
 Born here (29%)
 Mother/father of travel party member born here (11%)
 Spouse/travelling companion born here (6%)
 One or more grandparents of travel party member born
here (6%)
 Other ancestor of party member (4%)
 No ancestral link (44%)
Domestic Tourism
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The CHS is one of the largest continuous surveys carried out in
Northern Ireland, designed and conducted by the Central Survey
Unit of the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
(NISRA).
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It is based on a sample of the general population resident in
private households and has been running since 1983.
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The Survey is designed to provide a regular source of
information on a wide range of social and economic issues
relevant to Northern Ireland.
Domestic Tourism
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CHS collects information on day trips (7 day recall) and
overnight trips (4 week recall) taken by NI residents
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Measure of value and volume domestic tourism within
NI
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Provide Fáilte Ireland with estimates of trips taken by
NI residents to RoI.
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Provide ONS with estimates of trips taken by NI
residents to GB (Eurostat return)
Domestic Tourism
Overnight trips taken by NI residents 2010/11
Overnight trips
Main reason
Holiday
VFR
Business
Other
Average
length of trip
NI
34%
RoI
35%
GB
31%
62%
26%
3%
8%
57%
28%
9%
6%
38%
26%
20%
15%
2.3
2.4
3.0
Domestic Tourism
Attractions influencing NI resident to holiday in NI
 Giant’s Causeway (11%)
 Fermanagh Lakelands (11%)
 Mournes (10%)
 Walled City of Derry (4%)
 Titanic and maritime Belfast (1%)
 Sperrins (0%)
 Saint Patrick/Christian heritage (0%)
 None of the above (70%)
Domestic Tourism
Top 5 activities participated in by NI residents
on holiday in NI
 Walking/rambling (35%)
 Wildlife (25%)
 Learning activities (21%)
 Gardens (19%)
 City tours (15%)
Domestic Tourism
Tourism Day Trips
 An outing or trip, not for business purposes,
made on the same day from home and is outside
the respondent’s usual environment and they are
away from home for more than 3 hours.
Source: Eurostat
Domestic Tourism
Top 5 main activities on tourism day trips
 Drive/sightsee/picnic/pleasure boating (18%)
 Walk/hillwalk/rambling (11%)
 Visiting friends/relatives (10%)
 Shopping for leisure (10%)
 Informal sports, games, relaxation (10%)
Average distance 62 miles, average duration 6 hrs,
average party size 4.
Domestic Tourism
Age of NI residents taking tourism day trips 2010/11
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
16-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
Domestic Tourism
Top 5 reasons why no trips were taken within
NI
 Too busy with work/studying - no time (27%)
 Did not think about it (20%)
 Poor health/Family responsibilities (16%)
 Poor weather (14%)
 Lack of disposable income (12%)
Quality Improvement Fund
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Background
Funded by the UK Statistics Authority to enable
government statisticians to implement
recommendations from the assessment process, or
to
 prepare for assessment by addressing known
weaknesses
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2010/11 QIF Project Outcomes
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First-phase weights, accounting for the probabilities of selection,
observed patterns of non-response and passenger flow
Second-phase weights that are calibrated to totals from firstphase weights (improves coherence between results)
Standard errors for visitor numbers and associated revenue
Time series between “old” and NISRA NIPS
Greater user confidence in estimates
SE’s allow policy to make meaningful decisions
2010/11 QIF Project Outcomes
Confidence Intervals - 2010 NIPS
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Great Britain
May
Jun
Other Europe
Jul
Aug
North America
Sep
Oct
Nov
Rest of the World
Dec
2010/11 QIF Project Outcomes
NIPS - Number of visitors
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
2000Q1
2001Q1
2002Q1
2003Q1
2004Q1
2005Q1
Old survey
2006Q1
New survey
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2010/11 QIF Project Outcomes
NIPS Quarterly Expenditure
110,000,000
100,000,000
90,000,000
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
Old survey
New survey
2009Q1
2010Q1
2010/11 QIF Project Outcomes
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Visitor estimates from new NIPS more consistent with historical time series
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Expenditure estimates from new NIPS more consistent with historical time
series – 2010 “old” estimates show a very different seasonal pattern
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Time series for both visitor numbers and expenditure to be formed using
estimates from the old survey up to Quarter 4, 2009 and the estimates from
the new survey from Quarter 1, 2010.
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All published tables and charts showing these time series should clearly
illustrate there has been a change in survey methodology between Quarter 4,
2009 and Quarter 1, 2010.
QIF 2011/12 Tourism Statistics
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Successful bid in 2011/12 in relation to ongoing development of
official tourism statistics
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The survey estimates will be used to monitor and measure new
Targets as set out in the New Northern Ireland Tourism Strategy
and produce sub-NI estimates
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Weighting/grossing new domestic survey and calculation of SE’s
Identify outliers and treatment of missing values (NIPS and new domestic
survey)
Weighting of occupancy data and calculation of SE’s
Investigation of continuity and seasonal adjustment for both NIPS and
domestic surveys
Cross border data
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North to South
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NIPS
Domestic
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South to North
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SOT
HTS
•Frequency/timing of publication/release
•Quality/Fit for purpose
•Opportunities for improvements