Transcript 5/8程智男老師演講PPT

 10
65
 99 65
88%

65
10
3
4

 10
1,691
34%
65
65
10
 99
65

17.6
1.2
2.1
4 2
99 65
20.9
10
19.2
1.7
1.65
65
65
(
10
(
( )
)
)
89
89,982.8
49,719.3
40,263.5
17.5
16.5
18.8
192.1
101.1
91.0
90
93,711.2
51,281.0
42,430.2
17.7
16.6
19.0
197.3
102.7
94.7
91
109,886.8
59,706.0
50,180.8
17.9
16.8
19.2
203.1
104.5
98.6
92
116,083.9
62,486.3
53,597.6
18.0
16.9
19.2
208.8
106.3
102.4
93
136,023.1
72,793.1
63,230.1
18.1
16.9
19.6
215.0
108.3
106.7
94
141,044.1
75,113.9
65,930.2
18.1
16.9
19.6
221.7
110.5
111.1
95
142,803.9
75,430.7
67,373.2
18.6
17.3
20.2
228.7
113.0
115.7
96
149,924.7
78,425.3
71,499.4
18.8
17.4
20.3
234.3
114.6
119.7
97
158,118.8
82,017.3
76,101.5
18.8
17.4
20.5
240.2
116.5
123.7
98
164,715.3
85,102.8
79,612.5
19.2
17.7
20.8
241.3
116.9
124.4
99
169,098.9
86,924.7
82,174.3
19.2
17.6
20.9
248.8
118.9
129.9
87.9%
74.8%
104.1%
1.7
1.2
2.1
29.5%
17.6%
42.7%
10
80
80
219% 80
3
10
99 80
1
65
 99
13
60.5
99 80
9.9

8.7
0.6
530
65
1.3
10
10
9.3
10
1.0
2.80
80
(
10
)
80
( )
(
)
89
16,638.5
8,786.5
7,852.0
8.3
8.0
8.7
30.1
14.5
15.6
90
18,024.0
9,528.5
8,495.4
8.4
8.1
8.8
32.7
15.9
16.9
91
23,696.3
12,540.6
11,155.7
8.6
8.3
9.0
35.3
17.2
18.1
92
26,639.8
14,109.2
12,530.6
8.6
8.3
9.0
37.7
18.5
19.2
93
33,045.1
17,512.0
15,533.2
8.7
8.1
9.2
40.3
19.9
20.4
94
35,944.3
19,278.6
16,665.6
8.7
8.3
9.1
43.5
21.7
21.7
95
37,622.5
20,373.1
17,249.4
9.1
8.6
9.7
47.2
23.7
23.5
96
41,548.2
22,567.5
18,980.8
9.2
8.7
9.7
50.2
25.2
25.0
97
45,738.2
24,883.9
20,854.3
9.1
8.6
9.7
53.5
27.0
26.6
98
49,401.2
27,047.8
22,353.4
9.4
8.8
10.0
54.1
27.3
26.9
99
53,002.1
29,064.2
23,937.9
9.3
8.7
9.9
60.5
30.4
30.1
218.6%
230.8%
204.9%
1.0
0.6
1.3
101.0%
109.7%
92.6%
1. 65
94
98
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
77.47
77.43
62.62
65.44
2. 65
94
98
90
79.24
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
72.36
60.33
70.07
10
65
3.
%
41.6
25,000
38.2
1,973 2,528 4,001
20,000
1,345
25.2
15,000
10,000
5,000
454
31.9 7,920
35.0
30.0
7,844
17.1
278
2.5
40.0
5,853 7,131
803
3.0
4.4
6.5
8.8
45.0
10.9
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0
0.0
50 60
0-14
70
80
15-64
90
100 110 120 130 140 149
65
65


(NHE) GDP
4.5%
99
6.6%
GDP
98
3.5%
80
85
2.9%

97
7,538
8,000
7,000
6,000
4,996
4,714
5,000
3,838
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1,245
1,129
GDP
GDP3.7
4.2-11.5
GDP6.13
8.91-16
(
)
3.9
4.8-12.4
17

GDP


?
/Newhouse (1992)








65
19
: 8% (1950) to 12% (1987)
: 33% (1950) to 28% (1987)
--65
21



1960
15%
1990
5
:
:


26







Health Economics
27



Health Economics
28
60%


3
40%



Health Economics
: 40%
:2
: 60%
:3
(EMV)=2.6 =
: U(2 )
: U(3 )
29
Health Economics


67% (1950) to 27% (1980)
50%


U. S. 0.2-0.4
World 1.0

1940-1990




180%
0.2-0.4
1
35-70%
180%




(65
8%(1950)
12%(1980)
+15%
5
3.75%
(
67%(1950)
27%(1980)
+50%
5
12.5%
1940-90
180%
+180%
)
780%
23%
-






*
(admission):
(day):
(cost/per day):
*
1999-2008



600
BC
362

 97
14
60
3.34
1
 97
1250
1081
7.8

17.9
6.9
263
97
133
5
24
31
098.03.20




(
(
,
)
)