Transcript Slide 1

Second GTE+ Workshop on the European
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2009
Brussels, 29th April 2009
Presentation by Martin Altstätter
Chairman Forecasting Task Force
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Table of Content:
1) Eurogas experience in forecasting & preliminary remarks
2) Eurogas demand forecasts
3) Considerations for future Eurogas outlook
4) Preliminary comments on GTE+ results
5) Conclusions
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1) Eurogas experience in forecasting:
-Eurogas forecasting Task Force
-Work on long-term demand and supply in EU27 until 2030
-Last forecast published in 2007 (see Eurogas Annual Report)
Preliminary remarks:
- Eurogas congratulates GTE+ for Preliminary Report
- Eurogas thanks GTE+ for possibility to comment
- Eurogas recalls its position that the 10 year plan should reflect a
- European dimension
- Evidence of improved co-operation and co-ordination between TSOs
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2) Eurogas Demand forecasts
- Dynamic growth of 1990 will slow down
- Main driver in future gas demand is power generation
[MTOE]
578
700
493
600
603
535
438
500
400
123
300
158
625
181
209
226
239
118
128
137
145
150
156
175
180
187
191
193
194
200
100
0
2005
Residential &
Commercial
2010
Industry
2015
2020
Power Generation
2025
2030
Others (NGV+Heat Plants and Others)
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Comparison Commission – Eurogas – IEA
Primary Energy Consumption of Natural Gas
=> Compared to recent forecasts, Eurogas represents the “upper part”
IEA; 517
445
3) Considerations for future Eurogas outlook
• To reflect current developments, we decided to revise our long
term outlook for demand and supply in the EU
• Expected results in 2010
• The following aspects are to be discussed in this context:
– Impact of the economic crisis in short and medium term
– Growth of gas demand in the residential and commercial sector is
limited by saturation trends in some national markets, more
intensive energy savings and fiercer competition by renewables
– Are the developments in the power generation sufficiently dynamic
for natural gas ? Price competitiveness, evolution of ETS, expansion
of renewables and political choices on nuclear are to be monitored
 Uncertainties of demand predictions are significant
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4) Preliminary comments:
• 10 year plan should be seen as basis for further requirements on
cross-border capacity
• Eurogas encourages further participation of TSOs
• Work on a more coherent and consistent methodology for future
exercise
• Further information on assumptions and definitions is needed
• Favor an EU approach going beyond the sum of individual TSOs
projections (European dimension)
• Need to ensure comparativeness with existent scenarios (ie:
present EU27 totals)
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5) Conclusions
Taking into consideration current uncertainties in
future demand evolution, the Eurogas experts will
look closer at the GTE+ preliminary figures and
send comments as soon as possible
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !
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