Transcript ARE WE WINNING? What is the FIGHT? Who is the ENEMY?

ARE WE WINNING?
What is the FIGHT? Who is the ENEMY?
Alan Rodgers
“Wazee” Limited
East Africa
IF, THE CBT FIGHT IS:
• Using CBT to become the engine of rural
growth and poverty alleviation?
• Using CBT to become the mechanism to
maintain natural resources (WILDLIFE) on
communal lands that are important for
conservation (dispersal areas, corridors,
high wildlife value areas)?
• THEN NO, WE ARE NOT WINNING
THE ENEMY - ENEMIES
• “Who” or “What” do we need to overcome
to increase our chances of winning?
• THE MAIN PROBLEMS are
RURAL POVERTY and (linked)
LOSS OF CONSERVATION HABITAT
ROOT CAUSES BEHIND THESE are….
Underlying Problems / Barriers
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Lack of political will for change
Wrong policies, laws (IMPLEMENTATION)
Corruption (drives 1,2) Perverse Incentives
EXTERNALITIES (Dave Yesterday)
Awareness of Options Opportunity (see 2)
POPULATION GROWTH affects Options
Economics (CBT is not BEST everywhere)
STATISTICS
• Tanzania Population 2007 = 39.7 mill
2050 = 76.8 mill
• Rate of urbanisation is 3.5 %
Where will 400,000 tourists go? (yesterday)
Where will 30 million Tanzanians go?
How much wildlife is enough? How much
do WE want? (Elephants eating crops,
lions eat cows, hyaenas eating children)
Dave’s talk yesterday – successes near BIG
NPs, GRs; BUT failing in isolated sites
ISSUES FROM YESTERDAY
• Lack of statistics on CBT (on successes,
on failures) NO ABILITY TO ADVOCATE!
LACK OF RELIABILITY OF STATISTICS
“CBT is peanuts out of cake of 800 m$”
• Visions, Strategies, Policies, President
Promises BUT IMPLEMENTATION?
• WHY is Tourism policy not explicit on CBT
• (But Forestry!.......................)
YESTERDAY
We had GREAT discussion from
• PRIVATE SECTOR (who are dependent?)
• NGOs (conservation, human rights), LAW (wow!)
• Practitioners gave case histories,
• BUT WHERE WAS THE BOTTOM LINE
ANALYSIS OF ECONOMICS?
• WHERE WAS LAND-USE?
• Tanzanian Paradox EMPOWERMENT and
DECENTRALISATION, BUT THE CENTRE JUST
WILL NOT LET GO! (Why? Who loses what?)
TYPOLOGY
Gorilla tourism is looking at gorillas
Community tourism is NOT looking at communities
• WE NEED DEFINITIONS Huge difference
in types of CBT discussed yesterday!
• Other sectors we have “scales of activity”
• Small Scale Farmers
• Small Scale Mining
• Small and Medium Enterprise (SME)
• Why not “Small Scale Tourism”?
Ali Kaka’s Provoking Comment
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Help communities to do tourism business
Reality - this IS Growing in Tanzania:
Huge array of Eco-tourism at eg Mto Mbu
Your hated competition (Fly-Catchers!!)
The range of products, services etc grows
NEED MORE SUPPORT, Training,
Capacity, Partnership, Access to Credit
Cultural Tourism
(Eco-Tourism)
• There is Cultural Tourism; in EA we have: Batwa,
Maasai, Coastal Groups. (Limited?)
• Cultural Tourism is both history (Olduvai, Kilwa,
Gedi) and life style tourism (niche based)
• Cultural Conservation –Kenya Coastal Kayas
• Cultural Tourism growing? SNV support? But –
There is concern – Capacity, Marketing etc
• Cultural Tourism is often an add on to other
forms of tourism, and should be encouraged
Natural Resource Based
Govt Land, Private Land, Community Land
• Community Hand-outs (ICD)
(eg TANAPA CC 20%)
• Community Employed
(Eg RH Village Game Scouts)
• Community Partnership
(Eg Dorobo in Maasai Steppe)
• Community Owned - Driven
(Eg what Dorobo is transforming
towards – slow evolution)
Change
My Talk was supposed to be…
• “Getting the Economic and Ecological
Incentives right, so to drive CBT”.
• Long time getting there, but need to get
the context correct
• OF KEY INTEREST to TNRF and most
of you – is the Conservancy type of
CBT, with communities increasingly
driving the partnership with the private
sector, on community land (we are in
Arusha – not Mpanda, so our interest
is in RANGE land, not miombo).
Move to Ecological Issues
•
AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY says in latest
issue, that: “Despite the most comprehensive PA
system in Africa, most ungulate populations in
most regions of Tanzania are DECLINING
SIGNIFICANTLY”
•
Kenyan statistics show 60% decrease
SHOCK HORROR
Agriculturalists say “We successfully settled 10,000
families on these useless rangelands” (Populations
doubling!)
WORLD REALITY is transformation of grasslands!
USA Europe Russia South Africa, Australia.
CAN WE STOP THIS?
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Should we attempt to stop?
• Advise and advocate, SHOW COSTS and
BENEFITS, PROVE advantages - DO IT
• BEST LAND USE OPTIONS in terms of
win-win (poverty alleviation and
targeted conservation). Fred’s “Triple
Bottom Line”
• SHOW this in terms of “$$ per hectare
returns which are sustainable”
Question of Yesterday:
• 50,000$ income for a village? WOW!!!!!!
• (Millennium Villages of Sachs etc 140$ per person
per year – finance is no problem!)
• But: WE NEED FURTHER ANALYSIS
A) as % of the overall tourism deal?
B) as % of the POTENTIAL tourism that could happen?
C) as compared to other land-use options?
(Maybe 200,000$ from sorghum and beans?)
Compatibility Wildlife – pastoralism YES
Wildlife – cultivation >10% NO
How Much $$ is Enough??
(Another Question from Yesterday)
• Obviously needs to increase (Dorobo
renegotiations yesterday) as populations grow
and needs grow!
• Need to out-compete options
• Need to be REAL money to REAL people
• Schools and dispensaries are all very well
(WHAT ON EARTH are other MINISTRIES doing
with 7% growth!!)
• BUT PEOPLE NEED CASH in pocket (MNG)
DATA-SETS
• Flagship Olosokwan (WHY do we still use
2003/4 data? IF important UPDATE!!)
• In the north - around high value assets
• Olosokwan
90,000$
• Ngare Sero (AW) 50,000$ (growing)
• Further Away - more difficult to market, less WL
- Steppe (Dorobo) 20,000$ +
DIFFERENT - Tsetse fly miombo eg Mlele Hunting
add-ons ? 3,000$ pa per village (significant)
(Daudi yesterday said “Lots of contracts these
days” – PLEASE ASSEMBLE INFORMATION)
IS THIS SUCCEEDING IN
CONSERVING RESOURCES?
• Olosokwan – YES! (but in future?)
• Lolkisale ? We still lose wildebeste etc
• Natron – big immigration (RH in Maswa fixed the
Immigration problem - 17 years support does
have value!)
• TRANSLATE the incentives to real land-use
byelaws, approved by District. PREVENT things
• Register Conservancies as (as what? See WMA
issue below) Private Bodies Corporate?
BIG PICTURE CONSERVATION
• Tanzania has prioritised conservation into
core Protected Areas (eg Tarangire, SNP)
• BUT, these ENGINES of NATIONAL
GROWTH are not fully sustainable:
• TNP future depends on Simanjiro Lolkisale
• SNP some dependence on Loliondo, Mara
• Manyara, Natron etc etc all need their
peripheral dispersal areas (MVP areas)
IF 17% GNP is TOURISM –
HOW MUCH DO WE INVEST IN
SECURING TOURISM BASE?
• Lessons from Kenya are frightening!
• Indications here are no better! Short term
gain overrides long term sustainability.
• Huge antagonism to open communal
(wildlife rich) rangelands! – move to
privatise and sedentarise! Move to make
rain more equitable first!!
Whose Wildlife? The law says the
“STATE” owns it! But the reality?
MOST wildlife is not on state land!
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Emboret
Sukuro
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Simanjiro Plains
Tarangire
National Park
Loibor Serrit
20
0
20
Zebra and wildebeest locations
obtained from radio-tracking 1995-97
(OIKOS 1999).
40
60 Kilometers
N
Lake Manyara
National Park
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Y
Manyara
Esilalei Ranch
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Y
Conservation
Benefits:
135,000 Acres
Set Aside by
Lolkisale
Village
N
Makuyuni
Porini ;
Camp
Lak e Manyara
KibaoniY#
Naitolia ;
Camp
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Y
Minjingu
Lolkisale
; Tree Tops
Lodge
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Boundary Hill
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Lodge
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Lake
Burungi
Loibor Soit
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Tarangire
National Park
Emboret
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Y
Magugu
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Y
S
10
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20 Kilometers
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;
Conservation Areas
Tourist Camp
Main road
Village
Swamp
Lolkisale Conservation Area
Manyara Ranch
Lake
Naitolia Concession Area
Lolkisale GCA
Major river
Makuyuni Elephant Area
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Y
Y
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Y
Lolkisale livestock & wildlife zone
Emboreet Tourism Concession Area
WHAT STOPS GOVERNMENT
FROM INVESTING IN (eg
Promoting) CONSERVANCIES?
• Namibia does (HUGELY)
• Zimbabwe did, Kenya does somewhat,
Uganda would like to (but..)
• WHY ARE WE NOT SUPPORTING THIS?
• Tz policies say so, but implementation of
policies are very different.
• WINNERS and LOSERS!
ECONOMIC INCENTIVES Incentives for whom to do what?
•
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•
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Flow of Money - Who benefits?
Daudi told of his overstepping District
Olosokwan, huge District jealousy
The role of rich landowners with cultivation
(cf with Zimbabwe and Campfire)
• Role of Village Chairmen and Councils
• Very complex institutional situation
TANZANIA TWIN TOURISM PARADOX
Hunting versus Viewing
• Supposedly both fostering CBT, both using
wildlife outside core PAs to support communities
and conserve wildlife. BUT
• HUNTING is driven by DSM – Wildlife HQ; with one
set of Private Sector players!
• VIEWING is driven by villages / NGOs, with a
different set of Private Sector players!
• Different sets of finance flows in each case!
• Conflict over land (eg Sinya case of yesterday!)
• NO CONFLICT IN MLELE etc etc But Arusha?
AND HERE COME THE WMAs
• Put yourself in DSM, in Wildlife Division – WMAs
are a way to maintain control of situation whilst
supposedly empowering communities!
• Scale-up ONE WMA with ?? >10 villages, so
villages lose control of land-use and of finances
(Olosokwan opposition to WMA)
• Director Wildlife maintains FINAL decision on
land-use and contracts in a WMA, (and allocates
hunting block allocations) and determines WHAT
finances will return to communities
• And all this to be put in law? CLEVER!!
IF THERE IS CONFLICT
• Where do you think that Wildlife HQ will
put their weight? Villages or DSM hunts?
• If there is conflict – which OLD contracts
will be maintained or cancelled as noncompatible? Viewing or Hunting?
• Do we see INCENTIVES for local people
in new approaches?
• (Look at Wildlife 20% record from trophy
fees over past 15 years! Ask the Districts!
BEGINNING TO CONCLUDE..
The future is NOT looking too good!
• We cannot fully advocate CBT as we do not
have the economic analyses.
• Forces of Population Growth are outstripping our
ability to influence land-use
• Have not translated conservancies into formal
local legislation
• Have not tested law on paramountcy of Acts
• Have not really known how to deal with WMA
processes! This is VERY WORRYING
• We have not prioritised our interventions
CBT
• Insert into Policy (ALL Policies from Tourism to
SME financing!) And into Programmes
• Demonstrate Financial Successes in Mkukuta
terms and indicators
• Link finances to conservation gains (lessons
from yesterday)
• Continue to invest in capacity (villagers become
more sophisticated)
• Put CBT on the overall political agenda
• Invest in Small Scale Tourism (entrepreneurs)
INVEST IN NETWORKS
• TNRF a great start PARTNERSHIPS
• More of today’s interactions (Forum WG)
• Formalise the Conservancies and Network
Conservancies, PUBLICIZE
• Coastal CBT Association is starting (Rose
Kalemera and co).
• Do the same here – GIVE people a voice.
It is a Great Photograph, but next
year? No Zebra or Wildebeeste!