Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) GHG Accounting Standard

SCS-002 Draft, Annex B (ANSI)

Stanley P. Rhodes, Ph.D.

Scientific Certification Systems

Draft ANSI LCA GHG Accounting Standard

 The LCA GHG Accounting Standard is part of an overall Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) ANSI standard that covers all human health and environmental impacts linked to industrial systems.

 The standards committee has 25 members, including U.S. DOE, State of California, PG&E, U.S. steel industry, City of San Francisco, World Resources Institute.

 LCA GHG Accounting Standard (Annex B) is undergoing broad scientific review and is receiving formal written comments based on outreach beyond the committee.  Final standards committee vote expected January 2010.

        

Important Climate Terms and LCA GHG Accounting Factors

… We’ll be discussing these

Climate Measurements Radiative Forcing (RF) - Global Mean Temperatures (GMT) - Regional Mean Temperatures (RMT) Intensification of Anomalies Key GHG Emissions Tropospheric Ozone (TO) Black Carbon (BC) Tropospheric Sulfate Aerosols (TSA) GHG Loading GHG Fate/Transport GHG Atmospheric Lifetimes

LCA GHG Factors

 Global Warming Potentials (GWP)  Regional Warming Potentials (RWP)  Pulse Warming Potentials (PWP)  GHG-Precursor Conversion Factors (PCF)  Environmental Characterization Factors (ECF)

The Current IPCC GHG Accounting System The choice of the 100-year time horizon

The IPCC framework has established GHG metrics for the 20-, 100- and 500-year time horizons, with the 100-year time horizon preferred.

Current list of key Kyoto GHGs

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Nitrous oxide (N 2 0) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 )

GWP values are not linked to “atmospheric lifetimes”

The IPCC global warming potential (GWP) index amortizes the heating effects of GHG emissions over these three time horizons without regard to their atmospheric lifetimes (compared to an equivalent amount of CO 2 ).

Assign GWP Values Consistent with Their Atmospheric Lifetimes

CO 2, N 2 0 and other long-lived GHGs BC, TO, Aerosols 1 year Methane 20-years 100-years (IPCC/Kyoto)

Atmospheric Lifetimes of GHG Emissions

Lower Limit of IPCC Methane GWP Is Based on Atmospheric Lifetime Global Warming Potential for Given Time Horizon Industrial

The 100-year GWP value of 25

or Common Name

Carbon dioxide Methane c

Chemical Lifetime

amortizes the heating effects CO 2 has left the atmosphere CH 4 See below a 12 c

Radiative Efficiency (W m –2 ppb –1)

b 1.4x10

–5 3.7x10

–4

SAR‡ (100-yr)

1 25

20-yr

1 72

500-yr

7.6

1 3.03x10

–3 Nitrous oxide N 2 O 114

Substances controlled by the Montreal Protocol

CFC-11 CFC-12 CCl 3 F CCl 2 F 2 45 100 CFC-13 CFC-113 CClF 640 effects of methane during its atmospheric lifetime.

85 CFC-114 CClF 2 CClF 2 300 CFC-115 1,700 Halon-1301 Halon-1211 Halon-2402 Carbon tetrachloride Methyl bromide CClF 2 CF 3 CBrF 3 CBrClF 2 CBrF 2 CBrF 2 CCl 4 CH 3 Br 65 16 20 26 0.7

0.25

0.32

0.25

0.3

0.31

0.18

0.32

0.3

0.33

0.13

0.01

310 3,800 8,100 4,800 5,400 1,400 289 6,730 11,000 10,800 6,540 8,040 5,310 8,480 4,750 3,680 2,700 17 153 1,620 5,200 16,400 2,700 8,730 9,990 2,760 575 503 435 1

Highlights of LCA GHG Accounting Standard

 Establishes the list of “Key GHGs” based upon their contribution (> ± 0.1 W/m 2 ) to 2009 global RF (+ 4.0 W/m 2 ).

 Includes the short-lived GHG emissions:  Tropospheric Ozone  Black Carbon  Tropospheric Sulfate Aerosols  Global RF = +1.0 W/m Global RF = +0.9 W/m Global RF = –0.9 W/m Establishes time horizons based upon projected or current exceedances of climate anomaly thresholds.

2 2 2  Assigns all GWP values and other GHG factors based upon atmospheric lifetimes.

 Establishes separate Arctic GHG accounting protocols distinct from the global GHG accounting.

Examples of Applications of LCA GHG Accounting Standard

 Determining the environmental relevance of the CO 2  Evaluating the accuracy of IPCC projections  Establishing the Arctic Climate Registry  Evaluating new power (everything from wind to IGCC), biofuel, and other major infrastructural improvement projects seeking loan approval from DOE

The List of Key GHG Emissions (Threshold of Global/Regional Forcing: >

±

0.1 W/m 2 )

(BC)

-0.6 W/m 2 direct

0.3W/m2 0

Why Tropospheric Ozone is a Key GHG

South American TO Plume Intensity > 75 DU This TO plume represents a heat intensity (i.e., radiative forcing, “RF”) of +3.2 W/m 2 , compared to global RF for CO 2 of +1.62 W/m 2 .

Figure from NASA OMI O 3 satellite plume output

This TO Plume Appears to Be Affecting Western Antarctica

Image source: NASA; data reported in degrees centigrade

Why Black Carbon is a Key GHG Emission: Adds 18% to Total Annual Global RF

Source: Scripps Institute of Oceanography

Why is Tropospheric Sulfate Aerosols (a Coolant) Also a Key GHG

 The global cooling effect of TSA is –0.9 W/m 2 , of which direct reflectivity is –0.6 W/m 2 and indirect is –0.3 W/m 2 .

 NASA projects an increase in TSA emissions by 2050 of 20–40% largely from coal plants. The result would be an increase in the cooling effect that is greater than the –0.1 W/m 2 threshold.

 TSA emission projections consistent with current U.S. regulations would reduce global TSA cooling effects and result in unintended net global RF increases that are greater than the + 0.1 W/m 2 threshold.

 TSA emissions can result in both beneficial summer cooling (i.e., reducing Cooling Degree Days) as well as causing unwanted winter cooling and increasing the intensity of Heating Degrees Days. In both cases, TSA emissions can cause significant indirect emissions of other Key GHG emissions.

LCA GHG Accounting Allocates TSA Cooling Between Unwanted and Beneficial Seasonal Cooling 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Unwanted Winter/Spring Cooling Beneficial Summer Cooling Unwanted Fall Cooling SO 2 Fraction as Tropospheric Sulfate Aerosols

LCA GHG Accounting Metrics and Assigned GWP Values

1,2 ( )

Setting up the Global LCA Accounting System GMT Anomaly to Exceed Threshold (>1.5

o C) within 20 Years

Data Sources and Models: IPCC, NASA, Scripps, GISS and other recognized consensus climate model data only

The Arctic In Crisis

Establishing Arctic LCA GHG Accounting Protocols

Key GHG Emissions Affecting the Arctic Regional black carbon, tropospheric ozone, and methane loadings

account for 70-80% of total atmospheric warming in the Arctic.

Source: AMAP 2009 (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program)

 Regional sources of black carbon in the Arctic (agricultural burning, forest fires) are creating steady-state Arctic haze. Eventual deposition onto snow decreases albedo of the Arctic perennial ice sheet, which dramatically increases melting.

Source: AMAP 2009

 Methane is concentrating in the Arctic at concentrations 20% higher than in lower latitudes.

Source: NOAA

 Tropospheric ozone is contributing up 40% of RF of the Arctic region.

Source: NASA

NASA – Perennial Ice Sheet is Going

The total area covered by thick older ice that survives one or more summers (”perennial ice") shrank 42 percent or 1.54 million square kilometers (595,000 square miles) between 2004-2008, leaving thinner first-year ice ("seasonal ice") as the dominant type of ice in the region

Arctic LCA Accounting System: Exceedances of Thresholds Justify Annual Time Horizon

CO

2

as a Key GHG Emission:

Determining Environmental Relevance

67% of Global Loadings are from the Shorter-Lived GHGs in 2009

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 3.5 Annual 214 N 2 0 525 Annual BC 676 Annual TO 42-50 Annual 1200 Legacy CH 4 34 Annual 1400 Legacy CO 2

Background Concentrations of CO 2 Show Linear Increase (+28%) over 50 Years

Annual CO 2 Emissions Grew Exponentially Over the Past 50 Years Exponential Global Economic Growth Facts Since 1950 Increases

Economy Automobile fleet Air miles traveled Coal plant capacity Population Annual CO 2 emissions 20-fold 35-fold 4-fold 4-fold 5 3 Why?

Huge Sinks:

– Oceanic Acidification (carbonic acid) – Vegetative sequestration – Soil sequestration

Projections Beyond the Exponentials: 2030 CO 2 RF Intensification

 The 50-year exponential global population growth and economic growth are expected to level off.

 However, assuming continued exponential economic growth (i.e., continuation of Mauna Loa trend), CO 2 background concentrations would reach levels of 425 ppm from the current 390 ppm by 2030.

 This increase in background concentrations of CO 2 would result in an RF increase of +0.4 W/m

2 by 2030.

Projected 2030 Global/Arctic RF Increases Key GHG Emissions

CO 2 (global) CH 4 (global) TO (global) BC (global) TSA (global)

2030 Total Projected Global RF

CH 4 (Arctic) TO (Arctic) BC (Arctic)

2030 Total Projected Arctic RF Radiative Forcing % Total Increases, W/m2

+ 0.4 + 0.6 to +3.0

10-25%

+ 0.3 to + 0.5

+ 0.2 to +0.8

+0.1 to – 0.6

+ 1.6 to +3.9 W/m2

tbd > +0.8

+1.2 , +3.0 (with albedo loss)

+ 2.0 to + 3.8 W/m2

Evaluating the Accuracy of IPCC GHG Projections

Uncertainty in IPCC GHG Loading & RF Projections (100-Year Time Horizon)

Uncertainties in the IPCC’s GHG Projections are Greatest for the 100-Year Time Horizon Time Horizon Uncertainty or GHG Inventory Uncertainty of Radiative Forcing Uncertainty of GMT/RMT

Annual Time Horizon

CO 2 ±10% Methane ±10% TO ±15% BC TBD Aerosols ±10%

CO 2 ±10% Methane ±10% TO ±15% BC ±20% Aerosols ±10% 20-year Time Horizon Projections 100-year Time Horizon Projections

CO 2 ±40% Methane ±200% TO TBD BC TBD Aerosols ±40% CO 2 ±600% Methane TBD TO TBD BC TBD Aerosols TBD

Data from IPCC SERES Version 1.1 or Range of Major Climate Models

GMT ±10% RMT ±10%

GMT ±35% GMT ±300%

SRES Model Estimates for 100-Year Time Horizon GHG Loadings 2000-2030 Estimates < 60 billion tonnes

2010 LCA Annual GHG Loading: 1,300 Billion Tonnes

1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

LCA: 1,300 billion tonnes IPCC: <60 billion tonnes

TO BC

CLIMATE REGISTRY

Projections for Arctic TO and BC RF Intensification: > +2.0 W/m 2

Source: Cooperative Institute for Climate Science

2000-2050 Projections of TO and BC RF Increases W/m 2

Top Registry Goal: Stopping Black Carbon Plumes Hitting the Arctic

These peak BC plumes have 4x more RF intensity than CO 2

Loss of Polar Sea Ice Increases RMT by 3

°

C 1,000 Miles South of the Arctic Circle The Russian and Alaskan Tundra will melt….

3

°

C Anomaly is Likely to Trigger Near-Surface Arctic Methane Pulses Near-surface methane hydrates = > 6,000 billion tonnes CO 2 e

Methane bubbles observed by sonar escaping from the Arctic sea bed. (The pulses have started.) By contrast, the IPCC global cumulative CO 2 1990 through 2030 is projected to be loading from

386 billion tonnes

(as modeled by SRES Version 1.1).

Arctic Registry Potential Investment Dispersion of Sea Salt, a Aerosol Coolant, Could Help Stabilize the Arctic Perennial Ice Sheet

A fleet of Sea Salt Injectors

Injecting sea salt into the atmosphere over the newly de-iced open-water ocean would increase total cloud cover and increase cloud albedo significantly and would help re establish the Arctic perennial ice sheet without environmental trade-offs

Recovering the Methane-Hydrates Before Complete Melting of Permafrost

The Need for a Separate Arctic GHG Accounting and the Arctic Climate Registry

If the Arctic crisis is NOT addressed within the next 10 years, then attempts to mitigate global carbon dioxide and the other Kyoto GHG emissions over the next 20-to-50 Years will be too little too late …

Comparing LCA-Based GHG Accounting to IPCC GHG Accounting Scientific Basis Environmental Relevance of Key GHG emissions IPCC GHG Accounting

6 GHG emissions

40%

of global RF anomaly

LCA GHG Accounting

Based upon general Based upon specific climatological climatologic scientific parameters and data integrated into principles LCA Impact Assessment Framework 6 GHG emissions

90%

of global RF anomaly

Time Horizons Required

None Global : 20-year time horizon Arctic : Annual time horizon Yes

Assigns GWP Based upon Atmospheric Lifetimes Regional GHG Accounting Accuracy of GHG Accounting Factors

No No

Regional Climate Registries Integrates TO, BC, and TSA into GHG Accounting

No Excludes < 10% Yes Yes (e.g., Arctic) Includes > 90%