Presentation for 9th ASIAN BATTERY CONFERENCE Bali

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Transcript Presentation for 9th ASIAN BATTERY CONFERENCE Bali

Presentation for 10

E

L

B

C Athens, Greece September 26-29, 2006

Global Market for Industrial Lead Acid Batteries

Current Status and Trends for the Future

Hollingsworth & Vose Company

Bob Cullen

Vice President, Sales & Marketing

List of Participants - Major Manufacturers

C&D Technologies, Inc.

Douglas Battery Mfg. Company

East Penn Mfg. Co., Inc.

EnerSys, Inc.

CSB

Fiamm

B.B. Battery

Kung Long Battery

Leoch

Eurobat

Exide Technologies

GNB Industrial Power

Exide India

Panasonic (Worldwide)

Power Sonic Corporation

Power Battery Company, Inc.

C&D China

Yuasa/U.S., U.K., China, Taiwan

Amara Raja

Battery Council International

Crown Battery

Special Thanks to Key Industry Contacts “Special thanks for their contribution”

• • • • • • • • • •

Key Industry Contacts Mark Wilson - Ericsson, Inc.

Larry Lang - Cisco Karen Sansone - Nortel Steve McCluer - American Power Michael Keith - AT&T, Wireless Alan Katz - MGE Conversion Robert Parker - IBM/Internet John Wirtz - Wirtz Manufacturing Tucker Roe - Daramic, Inc.

Robert Wittemann- C&D

• • • • • • • • • • •

Battery Manufacturers Evan Wescoe - East Penn Ray Kubis - EnerSys, Inc.

Mr. J.C. Lee - KLB Keith Schmid- Exide Steve Vechy - EnerSys, Inc.

Tom Lynn - C&D Technologies Tom Minner- East Penn Jerry Hoffman- NorthStar Guy Clum - Power Sonic Hal Hawk – Crown Battery Company Alison Huang - CSB

Presentation Notes (Methodology & Conditions)

• •

Market projection covers period of 2006-2010

• • •

All figures reflect production within a given geographic area

U.S. dollars are used for consistency. Euro value of $1.20 was used to convert to $; 8. RMB = $.

Recent market price increases are not reflected .

Known export figures are identified.

Recent Chinese Government change in VAT refund policy not factored in.

Overview of Global Industrial Market

• • • • • •

2000 market size - $3.79 billion Overall market lost - $605 million in 2001 & 2002 Stationary market decreased by almost 30% driven by Telecom/UPS implosion Motive Power lost 7% due to a global recession Market began recovery in 2003 - 5% Strong Global Economies driving growth in 2004 & 2005.

2005 Global Industrial Battery Sales

By Market Class ($ billions) $2.712

Stationary

63% 37%

$1.592

Motive

Total: $4.304 Billion

Total Worldwide Industrial Battery Production 2004 vs. 2006 ($ billions) 4.8

4.6

4.4

4.2

4 3.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

3 2.8

$3.81

2004 $4.77

2006

Worldwide Battery Production, 2005 ($ millions)

$1,511

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400

$1,306

200 0 N . A m er ic a 625 681 E ur op e 804 707

$922

72 850 C hi na R es t o f A si a

$180

33 147 Stationary

$199

31 168 In di a R es t o f Wo rl d

$186

27 159 Motive

Growth for Motive Power and Stationary Batteries, 2004-2006

Stationary 53% Motive Power 47% $957 Million Total

Motive Growth Rates by Region (%), 2006 - 2010 S. America Australia India Rest of Asia Taiwan 1 China Europe N. America 0 3 2 4 4 5 6 8 4 6 11 8 10 12

Stationary Growth Rates by Region (%), 2006 - 2010 -15 -10 -11 -5 S. America Australia India -5 Rest of Asia Taiwan China Japan Europe N. America 3 4 7 8 0 7 5 12 12 10 15

Euro vs. Dollar

1.40

1.30

1.20

1.10

1.00

0.90

0.80

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Euro 2006 Forecast $1.28 May 2006 2004 Forecast $1.18 May 2005

Source: Merrill Lynch Research

2005 China Industrial Battery Market- Exports

Millions of $

71% 29%

$260 Domestic $662 Export

Total: $ 922 million

Worldwide Motive Battery Production by Region, 2004 vs. 2006 2004 $1.46 billion 8% 1%1% 5% 2% 2% 45%

Europe

36%

N. America

N. America Rest of Asia Europe India 2006 $1.74 billion 3% 5% 2% 7% 2% 0% 2%

Europe

43% Japan Australia China S. America Taiwan

N. America

37%

Worldwide Stationary Battery Production by Region, 2004 vs. 2006 2004 $2.35 billion 4% 3% 5%

Taiwan India

2% 3% 20%

China Japan Europe N. America

28% 5% 30% 2006 $3.04 billion 6% 5%

India Rest of Asia

7%

ROW China N. America

25% 31% N. America Rest of Asia Europe India Japan Australia China S. America Taiwan

Europe

26%

Comparison of Stationary to Motive Battery Production by Region, 2006 (%) 1200 1000 ($ millions) 800 600 400 200 0 N . A m er ic a 53% 47% 46% 54% E ur op e 92% C hi na /A si a Stationary In di a R es t o f Wo rl d Motive 8% 84% 16% 88% 12%

Stationary vs. Motive Power, 2006 vs. 2010 ($ billions) 4 3.5

3 2.5

2 1.5

1 0.5

0 $1.74

$3.05

$2.05

$3.60

2006 Motive Stationary 2010

Stationary and Motive Trends, 2001 - 2010 4000 ($ millions) 3000 2000 1000 0 19 99 20 00 Motive Stationary 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 10

Global GDP’s 9.00% 7.00% 5.00% 3.00% 1.00% -1.00% 2001 Japan Latin America China 2004 2005 Euro Area Emerging Europe World US Emerging E. Asia

GDP: % change 2001 vs. 2005 (est)

• • • • • • •

United States Euro area Japan Emerging East Asia China Latin America Emerging Europe

World 2001 0.5

1.5

0.4

-0.4

7.3

2.0

4.3

2.7

2005 3.8

0.7

2.7

6.3

9.5

3.8

4.5

4.6

Source: CIA Factbook; Various Economic Websites

2005 Worldwide Sales of Motive Power

Batteries by Application ($ millions)

Industrial Truck $1,512 95% Mining Vehicles $26 1.2% Railroad/Locomotives $54 3.8% Total: $1.592 Billion

Global Motive Power Drivers

Forklift Trucks account for 95% of total

Very healthy worldwide economies reflect strong motive power production

Lead Price increases have driven some of this growth.

Europe – largest producer of motive power batteries – has higher percentage of electric vs. gas trucks than in N. America

Global Stationary Power Market Segments

2003 • • • • • • • • Telecommunications UPS Misc. Standby Security Control & Switchgear Emergency Lighting Electronics Medical

Total

41% 36% 4% 5% 6% 3% 2% 1%

100%

2004 2005 2006 40% 41% 42% 37% 36% 36% 4% 4% 7% 4% 4% 5% 7% 5% 4% 4% 6% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2%

100% 100% 100%

Worldwide Production of >25 Ah Batteries by Region, 2006 1% 3% 4% 3% 5%

S. America

41%

N. America China

18%

Japan Europe

6% 19%

$1.817 Billion

Worldwide Production of <25 Ah Batteries by Region, 2006 6% 11%

Taiwan

7% 1% 4% 3% 1% 8%

China

58%

$895 Million

Stationary Battery Sales by Size by Region, 2006 ($ millions) 1200 $1,035 1000 >25 Ah $767 14 $769 22 800 787 600 753 400 200 0 N . A m er ic a E ur op e 747 $220 36 Ja pa n $68 0 68 C hi na 248 184 In di a R es t o f Wo rl d $220 31 189 <25 Ah

Stationary Power Trends

• Telecommunications Market • Recovery from a steep decline began in 2003 • Consolidation is the trend in North America • Expanding beyond traditional markets in order to ward off new competitors.

• Wireless continue spending to build out networks

Stationary Power Trends Has the Telecom Market returned?

• 2003 recovery began - 5% • Long term outlook improves .

• Teleco’s have more choices: Lithium, Fuel Cells & Chinese Battery Manufacturers.

Global Infrastructure Expenditures (in billions) 300 250 200 150 $136 $155 $182 $260 $209 $185 $195 $214 $244 $269 $288 100 50 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Tech Spending Slips Worldwide Hardware Sales

2000 2001 2002 2003 1 2004 2005 2006 $0 $200 $400 $600

Sale s (in Billions )

$771 $679 $655 $684 $720 $760 $805

$800 $1,000

Source: Gartner

Stationary Power Trends

Telecom Market will be driven by

• Wireless • Internet • Traditional Telecoms offering broadband and digital TV to stay competitive.

Stationary Power Trends Wireless Market • Killer Application?

Data and Entertainment - Games • 50% of voice minutes worldwide - wireless • $1 trillion by 2005 & Growing 25% of Internet access will be via wireless.

Internet

• • •

Online purchases amount to over $500 billion in 2003 Projected to reach $864 million by 2006 Projected to grow at over 15% per year until 2010.

Internet Innovations

Web Computing Growth of software rental market, including software licenses and services 70 60 50 $ Billions 40 30 20 10 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2007

3G is Growing! 4G is next

3G Applications

Internet mobile game users expected to explode over the next 5 years from 32 million today, to 220 million users by 2009

3G will create $8 billion market that did not exist 18 months ago

VC’s are flocking to mobile game startups

Global Stationary Power Trends

Telecommunications

Recovering from spending binge of the 90’s Getting back to basics - reducing debt

profitability

3G beginning to fulfill initial promises

Telco’s being forced to compete with Cable

Global partnerships/acquisitions will continue

Opportunities will be on global scale

Global Stationary Power Trends

Telecommunications

Infrastructure

Network holes in wireless infrastructure must be filled

Asia/Pac Rim continues to be growth area

UPS Market

• Data Storage Centers – US Industry has insatiable need for instant data.

– Move away from complete centralization of data to having multiple back up.

• Spending on Data Centers increasing - Global equipment spending to hit $10.1 Billion by 2009, and continue at a 6.8% growth • Projected growth of 5-7% in US – small and mid size batteries being manufactured in Asia(12-15% growth rate).

Leading UPS Suppliers to North America

• Annual Battery Purchases – – – APC $255 million Powerware $ 153 million MGE $ 90 million – – – – – Lieberts $ 40 million Phoenixtec $ 42 million Mitsubishi Elec $ 12 million Toshiba $ 17 million Triplight $ 27 million

Summary

Global Stationary Market began to recover in 2003- becoming Robust in 04 & 05.

Telecom consolidations/joint ventures on 3G/4G will be in fashion over next several years

Wireless infrastructure far from complete

Global Motive Power Market:

Will show steady growth of 5% + annually

Europe will continue as largest producer

Overall Industrial Lead Battery Market will grow to a $5.6 billion market by 2010.

Presentation for 10

E

L

B

C Athens, Greece September 26-29, 2006

Global Market for Industrial Lead Acid Batteries

Current Status and Trends for the Future

Hollingsworth & Vose Company

Bob Cullen

Vice President, Sales & Marketing