Transcript NIRSA External Review

New Ways of Mapping Social
Inclusion in Dublin City
A Joint Initiative of Dublin City Partnership/Dublin City
Development Board
Rob Kitchin and Justin Gleeson
Oak Room, Mansion House, 14th May 2009
Presentation Outline
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•
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•
Project background
Objectives of the project
The Evidence Base – The Present Situation
Improving the Evidence Base – The Pilot Project
– 4 Case studies
• Project Recommendations and Next Steps
Project Background
• In March 2008, PLANET – The Partnerships Network, in
conjunction with the SIM group of Dublin City Development
Board and Dublin City Council engaged NIRSA to:
– Explore new ways to spatially analyse and map social inclusion data in
Dublin City
• The rationale for the project was that providing partnerships and
others concerned with social inclusion with a greater level of
detail and access to information at a local community level
would:
– Enable better area-based policy formulation based upon a fuller
understanding of the nature of local communities and their epecific needs
• Having a detailed and robust evidence base as a background to
policy development will ensure maximum benefit is drawn from
public finances
• One way to ensure this is the case is to map relevant data at as
finer resolutions as possible to expose the patterns that
characterise an area and its population.
• With a specific focus on Dublin-based partnership areas a pilot
project was undertaken in two study locations
– Ballyfermot/Chapelizod Partnership
– Northside Partnership
Objectives of the project
1.
Identify data relating to social inclusion held by various data
and service agencies, including those that do not traditionally
release data or do so at course spatial scales.
2.
Work with Dublin City Development Board to persuade
agencies to release data at finer scales than usual and where
necessary to geo-code data for analysis and mapping in the
pilot locations.
3.
Structure that data into a coherent database for analysis and
mapping, and to work with Dublin City Development Board
to explore the possibilities of adding any geo-coded data that
might possess (e.g. service locations).
4.
Examine various established deprivation indexes (from
Ireland and abroad), explore new possible indexes, and to test
their usefulness and validity in a Dublin context.
5.
Map, where possible, data and indexes into existing
administrative boundaries – Dublin City, Partnership, ED and
EA.
6.
Map various data into new boundaries, specifically the new
Small Areas created by National Centre for Geocomputation
(NCG) for Ordnance Survey Ireland (OSi).
7.
Explore ways of accessing and presenting the data for non
expert users, including the development of online mapping
tools.
The project was undertaken over a one year period from March 2008 to
April 2009 with regular update meetings with the steering committee:
Ballyfermot/Chapelizod Partnership, Northside Partnership, Dublin City
Development Board and Dublin City Council Social Inclusion Unit.
The Evidence Base – The Present Situation
• Traditionally the evidence base has consisted of the census data
delivered to partnerships at the Electoral Division (ED) level
– This has helped inform policy making and the delivery of
programmes
– It can be significantly improved in two main respects
• First, since 2002 the CSO have released statistical data at a more
detailed spatial scale – the Enumeration Area (EA)
– 5 county borough areas (Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway and
Waterford)
• Secondly, there is potentially significantly more data that can
be used as part of the evidence base
• Allying census data with health, welfare, employment and
service provision data will provide a much richer understanding
of a population within a locale
– Collected at a great frequency
– Can be used to monitor changes over time – monthly, quarterly or yearlt basis
Electoral Divisions (EDs)
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•
•
•
•
• 3,441 legally defined EDs
• Census data not available for
all EDs. 2006 census output
for a national coverage of
3,409 EDs
• Advantage: stability of
boundaries and longetivity of
use
Highly variable in spatial size and in population size
Rural EDs can be < 100
Urban can be > 20,000 (Dublin average = 3,570)
Banchardstown-Blakestown has a population of 32,288
The larger the population within an ED the more that variation
amongst the population is masked through the effects of aggregation
The Statistical Geography of Ireland
Enumerator Areas (EAs)
Enumerator Areas (EAs)
• EA areas constitute the
are/workload assigned to each
enumerator
• geographical extent is
restricted to approx 330
households
• much finer spatial resolution
• less masking of local variation
• EA data is avilable for the 2002 and 2006 census (5 county
borough areas)
• No ability to undertake a time series analysis as the spatial units are
not stabe and change over time
• EAs are only released for county boroughs and suburbs, not all
partnerships in Dublin have a complete coverage
• Blanchardstown, CPLN, Dodder Valley and Southside do not
have full EA coverage
The Statistical Geography of Ireland
Small Areas (SAs)
Small Areas (SAs)
• The creation of the new Small
Areas has been undertaken by
the NCG at NUI Maynooth on
behalf of OSi
• Each SA should contain a
minimum of 65 households
• SAs should nest into
townland, ED and county
boundaries
• There will be approx 17,000 SAs covering the whole country
when the boundaries are released for use
• CSO will be releasing the 2011 Census at the new SA level, it is
also hoped that the 2006 Census will be back-fitted to these new
spatial units
Geography
Planet Partnerships
Ballyfermot
Northside
ED
292
8
40
EA
1107
26
136
SA (Beta)
3636
81
425
Availability of Geo-referenced data
• The census Small Area Population Statistics (SAPS)
– ED level data provided to partnerships through the administering body of
Local Development and Social Inclusion Programme (LDSIP)
– 9 sub-themes with tables detailing the relative strengths and weaknesses
of variables across the partnership EDs
– Raw figures and percentage format
– Context with National, Regional and County figures
– Majority of the data is available for 2006, a number are also provided in a
time-series manner (1996-2006)
– Static maps at partnership and Dublin City scale
– Partnership maps created using the national data distribution range
• Enables a useful comparison to the national profile
• Can also mask local internal partnership variation
• It is useful to map each partnership on an individual basis, even more
important when using finer spatial scale (increased variation)
Availability of Geo-referenced data
• The New Measure of Deprivation
– Partnerships have access to the Haase&Pratschke Index of Deprivation
through the LDSIP administrators
– Provides an analysis of change in deprivation in Ireland from 1991 to
2006
– Using ED data the index is based on 3 dimensions
• Demographic profile
• Social Class composition
• Labour market situation
– This has also been extended to EA level using a combined ED and EA
dataset (Dublin Inner City Partnership)
– Small Area Health Research Unit (SAHRU) at Trinity also produce a
national deprivation index at ED level
– Intended to reflect material (not social) deprivation
– Unemployed, low social class, car availability, local authority housing
Availability of Geo-referenced data
• Place of Work Census of Anonymised Records (PoWCAR)
– origin and destination of workforce
– An analysis of this dataset can provide partnerships with a detailed
profile of the work interactions of the community
• What are the main employment locations for a partnerships residents?
• How accessible are employment locations to the local community?
• Are certain areas of the partnership more dependent on a specific type of
employment?
Availability of Geo-referenced data
• Public Facility Data
– Local Authorities in Ireland have a geocoded inventory of public
facility data
– Such data can be used to calculate the level of access for populations
within partnership areas to key services
•
•
•
•
•
•
GPs
Primary schools
Secondary schools
Post offices
Accident and emergency units
Training and empoyment agencies etc
– Access to services is often used in indices of deprivation but at
present such data is not widely used to access social inclusion within
Ireland.
Availability of Geo-referenced data
• Live Register Data
– Extracts for the Live Register at the individual office level are available to
those interested in monitoring social inclusion on a weekly and monthly
basis
– Provides an indication of the welfare trends in an area but there is no
specific catchment assigned to the individual social welfare offices
• For instance, extracts from the Ballyfermot office can also include
persons residing in other partnerships such as CPLN
– As a result, understanding the spatial distribution of such data is difficult
Ballyfermot
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
?
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
-10.00%
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Ja 5
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% Change from Annual Average
80.00%
Month-Year
Improving the Evidence Base – The Pilot Project
• The overall objective of the pilot project was to
explore ways to improve the evidence base of the
area-based partnerships in six main respects
– To make available data and analysis little used with respect
to deprivation
– To generate and analyse new kinds of spatial data
– To increase the spatial resolution of analysis
– To examine ways to make the data and outputs easily
available to non-expert users
– To illustrate the utility of an improved evidence base
• To that end the project was divided into four phases, each
examining one or more of these objectives;
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–
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Creating a census atlas of Dublin at ED and EA scales
Using POWCAR data to examine labour markets
Examining deprivation indices and access to services
Utilising the Small Areas to examine geo-coded welfare data
• Each of these phases involved fundamental research into the
nature of the data and issues at hand, followed by a case study
applying and testing the knowledge gained with respect to the
pilot areas of Ballyfermot/Chapelizod and Northside
partnerships
1. Creating a census atlas of Dublin at ED and EA scales
• Produced a series of maps for Dublin city
and for individual partnerships at both ED
and EA level
• ED data available for 1991,1996, 2002 and
2006
– 80 census variables have been mapped
and made available to both
Ballyfermot/Chapelizod and Northside
partnerships
– Instant Atlas interactive module
• EA scale provides a much more detailed
spatial resolution of the trends at a local
community level
– Ballyfermot/Chapelizod = 8 EDs
– Ballyfermot/Chapelizod = 26 EAs
• 80 EA variables available (2006 only)
Theme
# of
Variables
ED Year
EA
Year
Population (raw)
21
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
Population (percentages)
21
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
Economic Status (raw)
9
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
Economic Status (percentages)
9
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
Education (raw)
10
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
Education (percentages)
10
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
Social Class (raw)
8
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
Social Class (percentages)
8
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
Socio-Economic Group (raw)
24
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
Socio-Economic Group (percentages)
24
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
Housing Tenure (raw)
4
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
Housing Tenure (percentages)
4
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
Car Ownership (raw)
5
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
Car Ownership (percentages)
5
1991,1996,2002
,2006
2006
• EA data is available in Instant Atlas
• Created city level maps for 12 variables with particular resonance
to deprivation
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–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
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Population Density
% Population 0-14 Age Band
% Population 65+ Age Band
Age Dependency Ratio
Unemployment Rate (Total, Male and Female)
Highest level of Education (No Formal/Primary)
Car Ownership levels
% Socio-Economic Group: skilled and unskilled
Housing Tenure: Buying or Renting from LA
Social Class: skilled and unskilled
• Whilst static census maps are useful to partnerships one of the
prime objectives of the pilot project was to explore ways of making
data more accessible and interactive
• Evaluated a number of online mapping packages
• Two interactive censuses were produced, one for
Ballyfermot/Chapelizod and one or Northside
– ED for Northside
– EA for Northside
CSO Data / OSi boundary (ED/EA/SA) / Instant Atlas software
www.planet.ie
/mappingmodule/northside
.html file for each Partnership
1 licence
1 boundary file
Case Study 1: Enumerator Area Analysis in
Northside Partnership
• Designed to highlight the utility of
conducting analysis at the EA scale,
as opposed to ED scale
• Preparing for Life Programme
– Early intervention plan that
provides support for parents
– Children become better prepared
for school by age 5
• Originally rolled out for Priorswood
B and C
• Proposed extension to D and E
– Demographic analysis
– Unemployment rates, lone parents,
Education levels
– Glin Area
• Undertake analysis at EA level
• Glin area is more disadvantaged than
other areas of Priorswood E
– Included in PLF
60.00
%
50.00
40.00
Unemployment Rate
30.00
Lone Parents
20.00
Low Education
10.00
0.00
081
082
083
084
Priorswood Priorswood Priorswood Priorswood
B
C
D
E
ED/EA
02/429
60.00
50.00
40.00
%
• Expert panel were satisfied to
include Priorswood D but not
Priorswood E based on criteria
• Counter to in-depth street level
knowledge of partnership
Unemployment Rate
30.00
Lone Parents
Low Education
20.00
10.00
0.00
081 Priorswood 082 Priorswood 083 Priorswood 084 Priorswood
B
C
D
E
ED
2. Using the POWCAR data to examine labour markets
• A key aspect of deprivation is access to waged employment
– little spatial analysis of in Ireland of access to work at highly
localised scales
• POWCAR raw dataset = 1.8m records
– Simplified to create ED to ED/EA interactions
• Socio-economic group, industrial group, means of travel,
levels of education etc
• Two excel databases focussing on travel to work interactions
within and out of each partnership.
• Series of ED maps detailing the commuting patterns for each
partnership
– SEG, Mode of Transport etc
Case Study 2: POWCAR analysis in Ballyfermot
– Public Transport Access to Blanchardstown and
Mulhuddart Job Pools
• Partnership access to large labour pools in
– Liffey Valley
– Blanchardstown/Mulhuddart
• Both outside the partnership area but are regarded as having
significant employment potential
• Liffey Valley was well served with public transport
• Partnership felt that the lack of adequate direct public transport
to Blanchardstown was acting as a barrier to employment
opportunities
• No evidence to support this!
47% of partnership workforce employed in Liffey Valley use Public Transport
11% of partnership workforce employed in Blanchardstown/Mulhuddart
use Public Transport
3. Examining deprivation indices and access to services
• Partnerships receive the Haase&Pratschke Index at ED level
– Partially updated using ED and EA for Dublin City in 2006
• Extended the SAHRU Index to the EA scale for Dublin alone
– Negates some of the effects of averaging at the ED scale
• Examined deprivation indices used by other countries
– N Ireland, England, Scotland etc
• Many similarities with Irish indices but also some key
differences - use of non census data
– Incidence of crime
– Employment/unemployment and benefit data
– Access to services (GPs, Schools, Supermarkets)
• Lack of geo-coded data in Ireland, extremely varied and substandard levels of address collection within government agencies
• Presently difficult to include any non-census variables in any
index of deprivation
• Even use them individually as a measures of social inclusion
Rep of Ireland
Northern Ireland
Scotland
Wales
England
Hasse&Pratsche
SAHRU
Demographic
Decline (4)
Unemployment
(1)
Income (4)
Income (5)
Income (5)
Income (2)
Social Class
Disadvantage (3)
Low Social
Class (1)
Employment (3)
Employment (4)
Employment (4)
Employment (4)
Labour Market
Deprivation (3)
No Car (1)
Health (5)
Health (7)
Health (4)
Health (4)
Rented
Accommodation
(1)
Education, Skills and
Training (6)
Education (5)
Education, Skills
and Training (4)
Education (4)
Proximity to
Services (8)
Access to Services
(8)
Access to
Services (4)
Access to
Services (4)
Housing (3)
Housing (2)
Housing (3)
Living
Environment (4)
Social Environment
(8)
Crime (5)
Crime (4)
Case Study 3 – Access to Public Services
• Key data
– Residence/population (ED/EA/SA or Residential point)
– Public facility (GPs, Schools, A&E, Shopping facilities etc)
• Data available from Dublin City Council
– Public facility database
• Wide variety of different techniques can be used to measure
basic accessibility to key services such as:
–
–
–
–
Road distance (geographical unit centroid) to nearest facility
Road distance (every residential address point) to nearest facility
Euclidean (crow flight) distance to nearest facility
Public Transport distance/time to nearest facility
• Time of departure
• Train/bus timetables
Distance (crow flight) from every residential address point to nearest
set of facility (GP, Primary and Secondary Schools)
Drive-time distance from every residential address to the
nearest facility (GPs)
4. Utilising the Small Areas to examine geo-coded welfare data
• Government departments routinely collect data about their work and the
constituitents they serve
• Much of these data are potentially of use in the monitoring of social
inclusion
– Welfare, health, education and housing data
• Poorly geo-coded and typically only made avilable at national, regional or
county levels
• Primary objective of the pilot project
– Encourage government departments to make such datasets available
for analysis at EA and Small Area level
– Highlights data’s utility with regard to their own work and policy
formulation
• Essential work if Ireland is to become compliant with the EU INSPIRE
directive (conform by 2014)
– Improve data collection, address format protocols, access and use of
data
Case Study 4 – Dependence on the Social Welfare System
in Ballyfermot
• Department for Social and Family Affairs
– Short-term Live Register data
– Dublin 10 & 20
• Within each extract a number of key variables were available
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–
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–
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Claim code (JB, JA, OPF, BtW etc)
Claim Start date
Prev Occupation
Child dependents #
Personal rate
Child dep rate
Total payment
Gender
Date of Birth
Marital Status
Country Code
• Address Information
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–
–
–
House Number
Street Name
Local Area
Postcode
• Address information swapped for Geographical reference
– ED Code, EA Code, Small Area Code
ID_2642 # Ballyfermot Road, Ballyfermot, Dublin 10
ID_2642 Decies, 02072, 268057008, Ballyfermot, Dublin 10
Geo-coding without House #
Geo-coding with House #
• Address matching being undertaken after data has been
collected by department
• To geo-code accurately and efficiently the address must match
GeoDirectory (national address database)
– Cleggan Road : Bothar an Chloiginn
•
•
•
•
•
•
Cleggan Road
Chloiginn Road
Cloiginn Road
Cloigann Road
Cloighann Road
Cloighinn Road
• Need to assign applicants address information to listing from
national address database
–
–
–
–
To be done at data entry stage
Address look up
Easy match to ED,EA,SA
Data could be extratced to match any boundary
• Partnership, Garda, Health etc
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% Change from Annual Average
Ballyfermot
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
-10.00%
Month-Year
Geo-coded and mapped to ED
Geo-coded and mapped to EA
Geo-coded and mapped to SA
Increase in numbers on the Live Register from w/e 08/08/08 to w/e 20/02/09
Increase in numbers on the Live Register (JB) from w/e 08/08/08 to 20/02/09
Recommendations
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Conducting a feasibility conducting a feasibility and cost benefit
analysis of providing the data to all partnerships and other parties
using a user-friendly, interactive, web-based system such as Instant
Atlas
Working with government departments to examine how their data
can be geocoded and mapped at the Small Area scale.
Extending the analysis to rural areas to ensure that the methods
developed can be rolled out systematically for the entire state;
Extracting as much value as possible from existing datasets that are
at present often overlooked;
Examining the technical and ethical issues that may arise in
mapping the 2006/2011 census data at the Small Area scale
Conducting more research into the development of a deprivation
index that extends beyond census data to include measures of access
to services and other data relating to health, housing, crime,
education and so on;
Exploring whether it would be possible to undertake the analysis on
an all-island basis
Next Steps
• Development of a strategy to ensure that these new
forms of mapping are widely available to those who
need it.
• A set of Pilot Projects examining
– the geo-coding of data from collection to output within a
government department, including a cost benefit analysis
– the extension of the techniques developed to rural areas
– The development of a deprivation index including access to
services and non-census data
– Cost-benefit analysis of development of a web-based system
for delivery of geo-coded data to the public sector
– the creation of a national geo-coded public facility database