Transcript Predictive Ability of Advanced Certificate of Secondary

Benno Benno Mwitumba
Ulingeta Obadia Mbamba
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A high standard or level.
Degree of excellence.
Distinguishing feature.
Faculty, skill, accomplishment.
Satisfaction of a customer’s needs or requirements.
Quality is “totality of characteristics of an entity that bear
on its ability to satisfy stated and implied needs”.
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Most of developed countries invested a lot in
education
Same approaches have been adopted in the
URT through different programs such as
Primary Education Development Program,
Secondary Education Development Program.
There are 4,102 secondary schools 300 more
than the previous year and 4 times as many
as in 2000
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However, in year 2008 form two examination
pass rates dropped to 72% for boys and 65%
for girls
The number of pupils taking the examination
rose from 280,000 in 2007 to 415,000 in 2008,
but only around the same number of pupils
passed in both years
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This draws some areas of interests to learn
more on what should be done in order to
improve the education system of Tanzania.
Admission and the graduates draw large area
of interests to answer questions: What should
be done to improve the admission criteria
during the selection processes? Are these
criteria good predictors of first year university
performances?
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UDSM has been admitting the best students
and, therefore, expected them to have better
performance during all years of studies
A number of students admitted at the UDSM do
either, abscond studies or obtain poor results
such as supplementary, carry over and some
discontinued completely from studies
Need to analyze whether these criteria are good
predictor of undergraduate performance of first
academic years
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The main purpose of this study is to evaluate
the predictive ability of secondary schools
performance to first year undergraduate
performance
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Model of evaluation of performance in
Universities will probably need be revised
following the results of analysis of this study
as to whether undergraduate grade points
average (GPA) should be revalued or not?
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Theoretical Framework – Prediction and
expectancy theories were used in this study
Empirical framework: based on several
studies done in Tanzania and in the world
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The performance level from form six results
(ACSEE) significantly affects the first year
undergraduate results at the University level.
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Positivist, used secondary data
 first year undergraduate studies (dependent
variable)
 advanced level certificates (independent Variable)
 Other variables were also captured – sex, subject
combinations, academic year at the University
Used three cohorts of 2011, 2012 and 2013
 used regression analysis – observing all
assumptions of regressions
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11%
predictive
ability
Model is
significant
Both constants and
F6 results are
significant
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Same results were obtained when analysis
done based on
 Sex
 Subject combinations
 Year studied
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Sufficient to conclude that Form Six results
points have moderate contribution towards
our prediction model
Policy makers and other stakeholders need to
review the admission criteria to incorporate
other criteria
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Prediction of admission criteria focused only
on quantitative analysis ignoring the
qualitative characteristics during analysis.
Only first year grades points were quantified
focusing university undergraduate
performance while there might be several
contributing factors towards the
performance of University Students
Used one university and one degree
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