Transcript Campus Communications

Treasured Past . . .
Unlimited Future
Demographic Study
2007-2008
Demographic Study
2007-08 Comprehensive Demographic
Study
by School District Strategies, LLC [SDS]
Historical population trends
Current student population numbers
Estimations of student growth for ten years
Projections of future student population characteristics
Recommended land acquisition and school sites
Historical Population Trends
2000 Census
1990-2000 Decade
Guadalupe County
64,873 to 89,023 - 37.2%
Growth
Seguin ISD Student Growth
6871 to 7541- 9.8% Growth
Historical Population Trends
2000 - 2005
Guadalupe County (Estimated)
89,023 t0 103,903 - 16.7%
Growth
Seguin ISD Student Growth
7541 to 7597- ~ 1% Growth
SDS Growth Projections
The impact that new homes will have in
5-10 years is substantial if development
comes to fruition.
Growth in short term (2-3 years) will
occur in Koennecke, Vogel, and Patlan
zones.
Growth will shift in 3 years to
McQueeney zone and be substantial
between 2010-2015.
SDS Growth Projections
Middle school growth will shift in three
years from Barnes to Briesemeister.
A projected 20-30 high school students
will be added each year between 20102015.
There is a potential for rapid expansion;
however, the district will most likely grow
moderately over the next 3-5 years.
Growth Projections
Seguin ISD - 10 Year Enrollment Projections
8,600
8,500
8,400
Total Enrollment - October
8,300
8,200
8,100
8,000
7,900
7,517
10/26/07
7,800
7,700
7,600
7,500
7,400
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Cohort Survival Method (Fixed 3 yr avg)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
New Home Method (0.7 Ratio)
Cohort Survival Method
New Home Method
Ten year growth projections based
on the average historical survival
rate over the past three years
Growth projections based on the
rate of new home construction
SDS used a ratio of 0.7 for SISD.
Growth Projections
From a 2006-07 enrollment of 7579, projections
are
3 Year
7,679 (New Home Model)
7,680 (Cohort Survival)
5 Year 7,968 (New Home Model)
7,811 (Cohort Survival)
10 Year 8,505 (New Home Model)
8,261 (Cohort Survival)
Cohort Survival Method
New Home Method
Ten year growth projections based
on the average historical survival
rate over the past three years
Growth projections based on
the rate of new home
construction - SDS used a
ratio of 0.7 for SISD.
Student Demographics
Hispanic students will continue to
increase at a faster rate than other
identified sub-groups.
The percentage of children classified
as Economically Disadvantaged will
continue to increase at a pace greater
than the overall student population.
SDS Sources
United States Census Bureau
2005 American Community Survey
Texas Dept of State Health
Services
Texas State Data Center
Office of the State Demographer
Residential Strategies, Inc.
Seguin ISD