Transcript Document
Sustainable Growth and Development in Brampton Local Economic Indicators
West End Economic Forum Presented by Brian Stittle Wednesday, June 29, 2005
Overview of Presentation
• Brampton, the GTA, and Canada:
– Performance Indicators
• Focus on Brampton:
– Population and Employment – Industry Sectors – Local Economic Indicators – Construction and Development Activity 2
Definition of the GTA
Includes: City of Toronto, Durham, York, Peel and Halton, plus 24 municipalities.
Source: GTMA, 2003
3
Excludes-Mexico
Factors Driving Growth in the GTA
• High Concentration of Employment, Business Investment, Consumer Spending and Large Sectors Dominated by Manufacturing and Financial Sectors • Cost Competitiveness (labour; construction; leasing and transportation) • Population Factors (Natural Increase; Immigration) • Existing Public Infrastructure and Renewal Initiatives • Quality of Life (Education; Medical Community; HACE; Multiculturalism; Theatre Market) • Location in relation to US Markets • The GTA is an international urban centre 4
National Performance – Population
Toronto Montreal Calgary Ottawa Edmonton Winnipeg Mississauga Vancouver Hamilton Halifax RGM Surrey Laval London Brampton Victoria Burnaby Markham Windsor Saskatoon Burnaby Thousands
0 545.671
490.268
359.111
347.825
343.005
336.539
325.428
311.902
208.615
208.402
196.811
193.954
190.399
500
Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
1,039.534
878.866
774.072
666.104
619.544
612.925
Top 5 Municipalities in GTA
1,000 5
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Toronto Mississauga Brampton Markham Vaughan
1,500 2,000 2,481.494
2,500 3,000
National Performance - Construction
Billions ($)
4.00
3.75
3.50
3.00
Total Value of Building Permits January – December 2004
2.70
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
2.48
2.43
1.63
1.60
1.36
1.27
1.03
0.88
0.00
To ro nt o B ra m pt on M on tr ea l
Source: Statistics Canada, 2005
C al ga ry O tta w a V an co uv er M is si ss au ga E dm on to n
6
S ur re y V au gh an
National Performance - Residential
Billions ($)
2.50
2.05
2.00
1.89
Total Value of Building Permits January – December 2004
1.59
1.44
1.50
1.12
1.09
0.88
1.00
0.78
0.69
0.65
0.50
0.00
B ra m pt on To ro nt o C al ga ry M on tr ea l V an co uv er
Source: Statistics Canada, 2005
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O tta w a S ur re y E dm on to n M is si ss au ga La va l
National Performance - Industrial
Millions ($)
350
332
300 Total Value of Building Permits January – December 2004 250 200
181
150 100
148 146 110 68 53 52 46
50 0
M is si ss au ga To ro nt o V au gh an
Source: Statistics Canada, 2005
M on tr ea l B ra m pt on E dm on to n
8
C al ga ry Te rr eb on ne C am br id ge O ak vi lle 44
National Performance - Commercial
Millions ($)
1000
947
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
To ro nt o 600 C al ga ry M on tr ea l 519 404
Total Value of Building Permits January
335
– December 2004
269 257 199 194 O tta w a E dm on to n V an co uv er B ra m pt on M is si ss au ga W in ni pe g V au gh an 193
Source: Statistics Canada, 2005
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Population Growth, 2003-2013
GTA Growth – 2013: 894,000 (17%) High Growth Poles: Actual # 2013: 62,000 (32%) 2013: 130,000 (36%) 2013: 59,000 (32%) 2013: 214,000 (8.5%) 2013: 50,000 (8%)
Source: Centre for Spatial Economics, 2003
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Population Growth, 2003-2013
GTA Growth – 2013: 894,000 (17%) Secondary Growth Poles 2013: 45,000 (31%) 2013: 34,700 (37%) 2013: 29,200 (37%) 2013: 32,400 (35%) 2013: 29,600 (71%) 2013: 43,800 (29%)
Source: Centre for Spatial Economics, 2003
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Employment Projections, 2003-2011
Industry 2003 2011
Manufacturing Trade Professional, Technical Services F.I.R.E.
Health Care Educational Services Accommodation and Food Information, Culture, Recreation Construction Transportation and Warehousing Mgt, Admin Servcies Other Services Public Administration Utilities Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing Mining Total 545,900 431,400 277,200 254,700 217,300 159,900 157,900 154,000 151,500 143,800 136,600 107,900 85,600 22,000 7,300 3,700 2,856,700 Growth 573,600 474,700 356,100 278,500 261,200 166,700 184,300 193,400 165,400 163,600 177,400 132,100 93,800 23,100 8,500 3,500 3,257,911 401,211 14.0%
Source: Centre for Spatial Analysis, 2003
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2011/2003 (%)
5.1% 10.0% 28.5% 9.3% 20.2% 4.3% 16.7% 25.6% 9.2% 13.8% 29.9% 22.4% 9.6% 5.0% 16.4% -5.4% 14.0%
GTA Summary
• The GTA experienced 12 consecutive months of employment growth in 2003-2004. • Approximately 100,000 people are added to the GTA population each year and 50,000 new jobs.
• The GTA will grow by 1 million people in the next decade. • Toronto and Brampton exceeded $2 billion in Building Permit activity in 2004. • Brampton and Toronto will experience the highest rates of real population, employment and real estate growth in the next decade.
• Subject to unpredictable geopolitical conditions, the current economic and financial indicators support stable national, regional and local growth in 2005. 13
Focus on Brampton
• 14 th Most Populated City in Canada (10 th in 2004) • 3 rd • 2 nd Most Populated City in GTA Fastest Population Growth of Canada’s Largest Cities • Land area equal to Mississauga • 50% Build-out (Half the City to develop in next 30 years) • Growing infrastructure (410 extension; New GO station; over $1 billion in transportation spending over next 10 years) • 39% of Population represented by new Canadians • A survey of 66 municipalities across Ontario found Brampton to have lower than average tax rates in all property classes, amongst the lowest taxes as a percentage of income.
• The City of Brampton is debt-free.
• Challenges include: managing growth in a manner whereby city services are delivered and funded in a timely manner. 14
Brampton Historic Population 1976-2005
450,000 350,000 250,000 150,000 100,000 149,090 188,498 234,445 268,251 325,428 412,503 50,000
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
-50,000
Source: Statistics Canada, 1976-2001, City of Brampton Planning Design and Development
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2005
Brampton: Population Growth, 1996-2001
% Growth 1996-2001
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Source: Statistics Canada, 2001
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Brampton Population-Employment Projection
700
Thousands
600 500 400 269 300 235 200 100 325 134
433 176
511 582 640 678 687 228 263 289 308 323 0 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Population Employment
Source: Statistics Canada, 1991-2001; Hemson Consulting Ltd; Planning, Design and Development
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Population Forecast
2006: 122 2011: 7,300 2021: 22,100 2031: 21,500 2006: 178 2011: 174 2021: 4,000 2031: 33,500 2006: 40,100 2011: 44,200 2021: 46,100 2031: 44,900 2006: 51,200 2011: 67,500 2021: 72,700 2031: 70,800 2006: 2,200 2011: 18,800 2021: 34,400 2031: 33,500 2006: 7,500 2011: 20,300 2021: 46,100 2031: 45,000 Total Population 2006: 432,700 2011: 510,900 2021: 639,600 2031: 687,200 2006: 12,400 2011: 14,700 2021: 14,100 2031: 13,700 2006: 15,500 2011: 26,500 2021: 41,400 2031: 40,400
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd; City of Brampton Planning, Design and Development
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Employment Projections
Total Employment 2006: 176,100 2011: 227,600 2021: 288,900 2031: 322,900 2006: 100 2011: 100 2021: 3,300 2031: 17,600 2006: 6,500 2011: 20,600 2021: 37,200 2031: 43,000 2006: 25,800 2011: 29,900 2021: 35,800 2031: 37,300 2006: 38,500 2011: 45,800 2021: 48,800 2031: 49,000 2006: 7,700 2011: 11,400 2021: 12,400 2031: 12,800
Source: City of Brampton Planning, Design and Development
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2006: 318 2011: 3,800 2021: 12,500 2031: 17,400 2006: 4,000 2011: 6,000 2021: 10,500 2031: 12,200
Brampton: Industry Sectors
Manufacturing Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Health Care & Social Assistance Transportation & Warehousing Admin & Support, Waste Mngt & Remediation Services Accommodation & Food Services* Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Construction Public Administration Other Services (Except Administration) Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Finance & Insurance Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Educational Services Information & Cultural Industries
2,270 2,152 1,310 481 8,678 8,394 8,271 7,411 6,365 5,315 4,798 4,329 3,558 2,789 17,598 33,707
NAICS
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
# of Employees
30,000 35,000 40,000
Source: Brampton Economic Development Office, 2003 Brampton Employers Survey
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Brampton: Manufacturing Clusters
Transportation & Equipment 7,217 Fabricated Metal Product 5,112 Food Plastics & Rubber Products 4,462 2,864 Chemical 2,223 Machinery Miscellaneous* Paper Non-Metallic Mineral Product Beverage & Tobacco Product
0 1,000
1,805 1,492
* These establishments manufacture a diverse range of products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewellery, sporting goods, toys and office supplies.
1,274 1,182 1,177
2,000 3,000 4,000
# of Employees
5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
Source: Brampton Economic Development Office, 2003 Brampton Employers Survey
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Brampton: Corporate Headquarters
Nortel Networks (Global Headquarters) Maple Lodge Farms Zellers Inc Bombay Company Aston Martin Jaguar Land Rover Canada Magna Technical Training Centre Velcro Canada Bacardi Canada Brita Canada Italpasta Atlantis Aerospace Corporation Loblaw Companies Limited Clorox of Canada Blue Giant Limited Concord Elevator Nacan Products Brampton Brick Limited ACCO Canada Mandarin Restaurant Limited
This list is a sample of the largest employers with a national or global headquarters presence in Brampton.
Source: Brampton Economic Development Office, 2005.
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Local Economic Indicators
Brampton Indicators
Total New Employment Total New Business Unemployment Rate (Toronto CMA) Average Active Employment Insurance Claims Total Construction Value Residential Construction Value Industrial Construction Value Commercial Construction Value Housing Resale Activity Average House Price Housing Permits (units) Industrial Vacancy Rates (4th Qtr)
YTD Mar 2005 YTD Mar 2004 Variance (05/04)
361 376 -4.0% 52 56 7.4% (Mar only) 7.1% (Mar only) -7.1% 4.2% 34,006 $427,012,626 $87,448,978 $173,810,858 27,778 $488,499,690 $374,350,155 $66,484,200 22.4% -12.6% -76.6% 161.4% $21,100,500 1,685 $274,371 372 $23,428,200 1,792 $250,716 1,762 -9.9% -6.0% 9.4% -78.9% 4.4% 6.1% -27.9%
Source: City of Brampton Economic Development Office, 2005
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Industrial and Office Lease Rates
Brampton Industrial Lease Rates
Source
CB Richard Ellis – Brampton Industrial Market - 1Q05 Colliers Greater Toronto Industrial Report - 1Q05 Royal LePage Market Focus: Toronto Industrial Market - 4Q04 Average
Net Rental Rate (PSF)
$5.40
$5.86
$5.84
$5.70
Brampton Office Lease Rates
Source
Canadian Real Estate Association – ( www.icx.ca
- average of listed properties) GTA West Office Lease Rates
Source
CB Richard Ellis – Toronto Office Market View - 1Q05 Colliers Office Quarterly Update - 1Q05 Royal LePage – Weighted Average Net Rental Rate - 1Q05
A
$13.67
$13.91
$14.39
Advertised Lease Rate (PSF)
$10.55
B
$11.09
$11.19
$10.68
C
$9.59
$9.02
$11.58
Source: Compiled by Brampton Economic Development Office
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Total Construction Activity
Value of Building Permits, 1980-2004
2004 continued to set construction records.
Current Dollars ($Millions) $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Total to June 30 Total to December 31
Source: City of Brampton Planning, Design and Development Department, 1980-2004
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Industrial Construction Activity
Total Construction Value, 1980-2004 $300
Current Dollars ($Millions)
$250 $208 $200 $150 $100 $50 $47 $62 $19 $12 $23 $0 $96 $75 $130 $100 $146 $97 $42 $21 $12 $24 $32 $38 $84 $162 $258 $120 $91 $191
$209
Source: City of Brampton Planning, Design and Development Department, 1980-2004
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Commercial Construction Value
Total Construction Value 1980-2004 $180 $160 $140
Current Dollars ($Millions) $164
$120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $20 $20 $12 $8 $18 $8 $41 $56 $50 $51 $48 $18 $20 $15 $32 $51 $56 $64 $44 $82 $62 $40 $69 $0 $109
Source: City of Brampton Planning, Design and Development Department, 1980-2004.
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Institutional Construction Value
Total Construction Value, 1980-2004
Current Dollars ($Millions) $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50
$17 $15 $23 $22 $12 $5$13 $42 $54 $18 $35 $39 $28 $11 $14 $26 $6 $10 $67 $20 $55
$0
$112 $153 $104
$292
Source: City of Brampton Planning, Design and Development Department, 1980-2004
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Residential Construction Value
Total Construction Value, 1980-2004
Brampton will continue to represent a significant portion of the regional new home construction market over the next 15 - 30 years.
Current Dollars ($ Millions)
$2,500
$2,042
$2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 $277$305 $145$163 $102 $102 $370 $275 $195 $110 $288 $221 $132 $201 $146 $435 $354 $321 $736$759 $1,366 $1,089
Source: City of Brampton Planning, Design and Development Department, 1980-2004
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New Housing Units
1980-2004
Units (Thousands)
10.000
9.000
8.000
7.000
6.000
6.367
6.670
5.145
4.861
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
3.029
2.338
2.923
2.509
2.210
2.553
2.072
3.445 3.524
1.905
2.260
1.554
1.053
1.441
1.826
1.489
2.027
3.239
2.922
2.479
1.000
0.000
9.657
The new housing units include detached, semi-detached, townhouse, and apartment.
Source: City of Brampton Planning, Design and Development Department, 1980-2004
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Construction Update
The total value of construction to March of 2005 was $427.0 million, down slightly from $488.5 million for the same period last year, showing a 12.6% decrease.
Exceeding $2.7 billion in total construction activity in 2004 moved Brampton into position as the second largest construction market in Canada behind Toronto.
The City of Brampton has achieved over $1 billion in construction value for the last five years. With over $2.7 billion achieved in 2004, Brampton’s sustained growth continues to highlight its place as a significant national urban centre.
Residential construction values at $87.4 million are over 75% less than last year.
Brampton’s growth to date in 2005 is being led by a strong industrial construction market with 12 new buildings commenced to date showing a 100% increase over the same period last year.
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Construction Update
Brampton’s industrial construction value to date is $173.8 million, up over 160% over last year, the majority of which is attributed to new speculative development.
Industrial speculative construction has to date accounted for close to 2.8 million square feet of new space totalling over $102 million in construction value.
Commercial construction at $21.1 million is down less than 10% and on par with 2004.
Institutional construction value at $140.9 million is up substantially over last year at this time (over 700%). The new hospital permit released in March accounts for $117.7 million itself.
Over 675,000 square feet of new non-residential site plan applications are in process to date in 2005.
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Top Non-Residential Construction Projects
YTD March 2005 Rank Applicant
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Brampton Property Investments Inc.
William Osler Health Centre Orlando Corporation Brampton Property Investments Inc.
Orlando Corporation Airport 407 Campus Inc.
Millard Refrigerated Services - Canada Precidio Court West Developments Inc.
Great West Life & London Life Great West Life & London Life Giampaolo Investments Jaipur Gore Plaza Inc.
Peel District School Board Rutherford Properties Limited Peel District School Board New Spaces Inc.
Bramalea & Bovaird Holdings Inc.
1539108 Ontario Limited Minuk Developments Inc.
Jaipur Gore Plaza Inc.
Peel District School Board Jaipur Gore Plaza Inc.
Orlando Corporation Peel District School Board Jaipur Gore Plaza Inc.
A. Mantella & Sons Limited City South Limited Minuk Developments Inc.
The Regional Municipality of Peel Minuk Developments Inc.
D & F Ruso Limited John Joseph O'Connell D & F Ruso Limited Svazic Realty Inc.
Location
9263 Airport Rd 2100 Bovaird Dr. E.
15 Hereford St 9283 Airport Rd 1 Hereford St 30 Pedigree Court 745 Intermodal Dr 14 Precidio Court 3485 Steeles Ave E 3495 Steeles Ave E 850 Intermodal Dr 8887 The Gore Rd 80 Redwillow Road 321 Rutherford Rd S 65 Mount Royal Circle 3A Edvac Dr 10095 Bramalea Road 9499 Airport Rd 351 Parkhurst Sq 8917 The Gore Road 105 Richvale Dr. N.
8907 The Gore Road 1 President's Choice Cir 95 Richvale Dr. N.
8897 The Gore Road 95 Biscayne Crescent 7700 Hurontario St 341 Parkhurst Sq 2625 Steeles Ave E 361 Parkhurst Sq 2462 Queen Street E 9981 Chinguacousy Rd 2456 Queen Street E 5 Strathearn Avenue
Source: Brampton Planning, Design and Development Department, 2005
Size (Sq Ft) User
704,424 Speculative Construction 543,165 William Osler - Inpatient Bldg 458,404 Speculative Construction 413,933 Speculative Construction 323,462 Speculative Construction 274,972 Speculative Construction 241,175 Millard Refrigerated Services 177,595 Speculative Construction 175,650 Speculative Construction 159,806 Speculative Construction 122,121 Matalco Inc.
87,062 Retail Development 59,257 Bram East #2 Public School 43,305 Speculative Construction 40,904 Vales North Elem. School 32,809 Speculative Construction 26,542 Retail Development 26,365 Speculative Construction 24,745 Retail Development 21,227 Retail Development 18,511 Robert H Laguerquist Sr P.S.
17,455 Retail Development 16,346 Loblaws 15,727 Terry Fox Public School 14,209 Retail Development 9,045 Amcor Pet Packaging 7,008 Brampton Guardian 6,760 Retail Development 5,348 Region of Peel 5,070 Retail Development 4,812 Imperial Garden Centre 3,778 Petro Canada 3,000 Imperial Garden Centre 1,356 Tabco Brake Company
Permit Type
Industrial Institutional Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Commercial Institutional Industrial Institutional New New New New New New Addition New New New New New New New New Industrial Commercial Industrial Commercial New New New New Commercial Institutional New Addition Commercial New Commercial Addition Institutional Commercial Addition New Industrial Addition Commercial Addition Commercial Industrial Commercial Commercial New New New New Commercial Commercial Industrial New New Addition
Date
Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Jan Mar Jan Mar Jan Mar Mar Jan Mar Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar Mar Feb Mar Jan Mar Jan Feb 33
Thank You!
For further information, please contact:
Brian Stittle Economic Development Co-ordinator City of Brampton, 33 Queen Street West Brampton, Ontario, L6Y 1L9 Tel: 905-874-2642 Fax: 905-874-2670 [email protected]