Transcript Slide 1
KOMITE EKONOMI NASIONAL
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
Indonesia - The World’s Next
Economic Power
Chairul Tanjung
Chairman of National Economic Committee (KEN)
Indonesia Future Outlook
Key Economic Drivers
page 1
Looking to the long term, Indonesia will become a high income country
PREPARATION
ACCELERATION
CONTINUATION
Indonesia becomes a high
income country with GDP per
capita USD 14,250-USD 15,500
$46,900
$38,600
$30,400
$22,500
GDP Nominal per capita
$14,900
$3,005
$5,300
2010
2015
$9,000
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
GDP Nominal (US$ Billion)
711
1,335
2,416
4,257
6,793
9,706
12,989
16,578
Population (Million people)
237
253
269
286
302
319
336
353
page 2
Indonesia’s economic growth has far surpassed the projections of the
Indonesia Forum Foundation
Projected GDP per capita - Indonesia Vision 2030
1992
2015
Lower Middle
Income Country
25,000
2023
Upper Middle
Income Country
High
Income Country
22,500
Economic
Projection
2011 - 2045
20,000
18,000
15,000
Indonesia Vision
2030
14,900
GDP per capita
reached US$3,005
in 2010
12,449
9,000
10,000
5,300
5,000
7,231
3,005
1,660
2,359
3,923
0
1990
1995
2000
2006
2010
2015
Source: Indonesia Forum Foundation (Yayasan Indonesia Forum), team analysis
2020
2025
2030
page 3
IMF projects Indonesia to achieve the second fastest growth amongst the
world’s 18 largest economies during 2009-2015
GPD Nominal Growth (2009 – 2015)
Russia
15.7%
Indonesia
14.5%
China
12.4%
India
12.1%
Brazil
11.7%
South Korea
10.0%
Turkey
9.9%
USA
4.1%
Japan
4.0%
ASEAN (excl. Indonesia)
9.6%
Source : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011
page 4
Indonesia’s economy will become more dominant in ASEAN and larger than
several countries in Europe
Indonesia Economic Growth (nominal)
(USD Billion)
CAGR 14.5%
Indonesia’s economy as % of
ASEAN-6
ASEAN
(Total 11
Countries)
40%
48%
53%
38%
46%
52%
European Countries:
Spain
50%
60%
91%
Netherlands
91%
105%
165%
Source:International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011; Proyeksi Ekonomi Indonesia 2011 – 2045; Analisa Tim
page 5
Indonesia Future Outlook
Key Economic Drivers
page 6
The increase of the productive population will fuel stable and rapid
economic growth
Expected Population Pyramid (2000–2020)
Male
15
12
9
6
Population (in millions)
Indonesia–2000
100
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
55
00
3
0
0
Female
3
6
9
12
15
Male
Indonesia–2020
100
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
55
00
15
12
9
6
Population (in millions)
Total (million)
205
254
Male (million)
102
127
Female (million)
102
127
99 (48%)
132 (52%)
Productive population
(20–55 years old)
3
0
0
Female
3
6
9
12
15
Source: 2008 UNDP World Population Prospects
page 7
Natural Resources, Infrastructure and Consumers will also drive economic
growth
Natural
Resources
Economic growth, including key emerging
markets driving demand
– Hard commodities, e.g. metals, oil, coal, etc.
– Soft commodities, e.g. rubber, palm oil, etc.
Infrastructure
Continued development of infrastructure:
transportation, energy, communications, water &
waste, etc.
• Consumer
Rise of
Consumer
Spending
Power
Based on 2010 GDP per capita
(US$3,005), Indonesia has reached the
critical threshold rapid growth in
consumption, discretionary and luxury
spending
o
o
o
o
o
Financial Services
Automotive
Retail
Tourism
etc.
(as well as supporting
sectors such as industry and
construction)
page 8
This economic growth is also supported by conducive national conditions
Maturing democracy
Regional autonomy
Supportive regulations balanced open markets
Strengthening institutions
Political
Environment
Increasingly
integrated
networks
Regional – improving efficiency of domestic production and
distribution chains
Global – geographic position provides excellent access to India,
China, Japan, etc.
Resilient
Financial
System
Government debt and foreign reserves at healthy levels
Improving investment climate
Indonesian banks performed well during global crisis
page 9
Indonesia has entered the Golden Era of economic growth huge
opportunities for businesses
Projection of Indonesia’s GDP Growth in 2025
(USD Billion)
4,257
3,546
711
711
2010
2025
Indonesian economy will grow 5-fold through 2025
The stable government combined with strong economic growth will provide great
opportunities for all businesses
Currently China already has 115 people in Fortune's list of World Billionaires, while
Indonesia has only 14 people. By 2025, the number of Indonesian billionaires could
surpass 115
Source: Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Indonesia
page 10
Closing
Indonesia’s is expected to continues its strong performance
This robust growth is driven by favorable demographics, strong natural
resources and consumer sectors and developing infrastructure, as well
as broad based geographic growth
Indonesia is moving forward to address challenges in funding,
infrastructure, bureaucracy, human resources, and technology
Indonesia’s economy is projected to grow 5-fold by 2025, thereby
making Indonesia the world’s next economic power
page 11
Thank You
Chairul Tanjung
Chairman of National Economic Committee (KEN)