Transcript Motor Vehicles & Social Policy

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Recall from the Lecture on
Epidemics and Substance Abuse
 The importance of road traffic collisions determining the
index of disabilty adjusted life years = years lost of life +
years lived with disability
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Estimated Leading Causes of Disability-Adjusted
Life-Years (DALYS) in the U.S., 1996
*
*
**
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Michaud CM, Murray CJL, Bloom BR. JAMA 2001; 285(5):535-539.
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Estimated Leading Causes of DisabilityAdjusted Life-Years (DALYS) in the U.S., 1996
*
*
*
*
*
*
Michaud CM, Murray CJL, Bloom BR. JAMA 2001; 285(5):535-539.
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Issues
 Private optima & social optima
 Government Regulation Versus Market Solutions
 Collision Statistics and Risk
 Local Traffic: Volume, Collisions, and Congestion
 Control of Driving Under the Influence, DUI
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Part I: Private Optima Vs. Social Optima
 The Value of Time and Speeding
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Value of Time & Speeding
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Distance = Rate*Time
D =100 miles
Rate (speed)
Time to travel
100
25 mph
4 hours
100
40 mph
2.5 hours
100
50 mph
2.0 hours
100
75 mph
1 hour 20 minutes
100
80 mph
1 hour 15 minutes
100
85 mph
1 hour 11 minutes
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Time to Travel (D = R*T)
4.5
4
3.5
Hours
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Speed MPH
60
70
80
90
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Time to Travel (D = R*T)
4.5
4
3.5
Time saved
Hours
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
Time for travel
0.5
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Speed MPH
60
70
80
90
10
- Six Hours Total – Time to Travel = Time for Leisure
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Time for Leisure Hours
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Speed MPH
60
70
80
90
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Private Value of Free Time @ $23/hr
120
100
Benefits $
80
60
40
20
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Speed MPH
60
70
80
90
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Vehicle Costs
Victoria Transport Policy Institute
Fixed costs: $ 2884/360 = $8 per day
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Private Value of Free Time @ $23/hr
120
100
Benefits $
80
60
40
Fixed costs
20
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Speed MPH
60
70
80
90
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Variable costs $0.14mile* 100 =
$14, corrected for inefficiency
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Benefits & Variable Costs
120
110.9411765
109.25
107.3333333
100
92
80.5
Benefits, Costs $
80
60
46
40
23
16.8 15.27
20
14.48
16.8 18.28
14
21
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Speed MPH
60
70
80
90
16
90
Net Private Benefits = Private Benefits - Variable Costs - Fixed Costs
82.53 82.97 81.94
80
70
70
60
58.02
Dollars
50
40
30
22.73
20
10
0
0
10
20
-1.8
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-10
Speed MPH
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Risk of fatality: 1.27 per 100 million
miles traveled, or 1.27*10-6 *$1.4
Million or about $2, but U-shaped with
speed
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90
Social Net Benefits VS. Private Net Benefits
80
70
82.53
80.03
82.97
79.97
2.5
3
81.94
78.44
70
68
60
58.02
55.52
Dollars
50
40
Net benefits
30
externalty
22.73
19.73
20
social net benefits
10
3.5
0
0
-10
10
20
-1.8
-5.3
3
2.5
30
40
2
50
60
70
80
3.5
90
Speed MPH
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Part II. Government Regulation
Versus the Private Market
 self – insurance against risk of accidents
 Civil Law-suit for damages
 Government Requires Insurance of all Drivers
 Uninsured driver
 Moral hazard?
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Part III: Risk of an Accident
 Collision Statistics
 Number of collisions involving fatalities
 Number of Collisions Involving Injuries
 Number of Collisions Involving Only Property Damage
 Region




US
California
Santa Barbara County
Oxnard-Ventura
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45000
40000
US Number of Crashes with Fatalities By Number of Vehicles
Involved
35000
30000
Number
25000
20000
15000
total
10000
single
5000
0
1999
two or more
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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Why Did the Number of Fatal
Crashes Start Declining?
 Safer cars?
 Seat belts
 Air bags
 Safer Roads?
 Safer Drivers?
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Persons Killed in US: Drivers, Passengers, Motorcyclists & Others
50000
45000
40000
persons killed
drivers
35000
passengers
Number
30000
motorcyclists
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1998
2000
2002
2004
Year
2006
2008
2010
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Risk Measures: Per Capita, Per VMT
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Passenger car involvement down, light
trucks & motorcycles up
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California Trends
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30
31
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Oxnard-Ventura 2010 Fatalities
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Local Traffic & Traffic Measures
 Traffic Volume or Counts
 Traffic Collisions: Fatal, Injury, Property Damage Only
 Traffic Congestion
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Not Much Change in Traffic Volume
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Traffic Collisions
Santa Barbara County , Total
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Traffic Collisions
Ventura County, Total
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Traffic Collisions
San Luis Obispo County, Total
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What is Going On In Ventura?
Traffic Congestion
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Ventura County
Vehicle Miles Travelled, VMT
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Traffic Collisions Involving Injuries,
Traffic Congestion & Public Transportation
Positive?
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Spurious Correlation? Difference
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Traffic Collisions Involving Injuries,
Traffic Congestion & Public Transportation
Still +
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Actual, Fitted & Residual
400
200
0
-200
300
-400
200
-600
100
0
-100
-200
-300
94
96
98
Residual
00
02
Actual
04
06
Fitted
08
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Control Of DUI
 History: Sweden
 Guiding Force: Temperance Movement in Parliament
 History: Great Britain
 Guiding Force: Physicians
 History: US
 Guiding Force: MADD, SADD
 History: CA
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NHTSA
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NHTSA
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Holidays & DUI
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Motor Vehicle Drivers in Fatal Collisions By Age,
Under the Influence, 2009 CA
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Alcohol Involved Fatal Collisions, Jan 2005-Dec 2009
160
July
Aug
Aug
140
120
100
80
60
2005
2006
2007
2008
ALCINVFATCOLL
2009
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51
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Intervention Analysis
 If you know the date a law became effective then you can
see if behavior changed after that date
 Example: per se legislation setting a blood alcohol
content, bac, of 0.08 was passed in the United Kingdom in
October 1967
 Monthly Data on the number of road fatalities and number
seriously injured is available from January 1960 to
December 1975
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Road Fatalities and Seriously Injured
KILL
Road fatalities
1,000
800
600
400
200
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1970
1972
1974
INJ
Seriously Injured
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
1960
1962
1964
Step Function
1966
1968
STEP
2
1
54
0
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
Regress Road Fatalities On seasonal
Dummies and Step Function
-46/608 = 7.6%
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Regress SDKill = -87*sdstep + error
400
-87/608 = -14%
200
200
0
100
-200
0
-400
-100
-200
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62
63
64
65
66
67
Residual
68
69
Actual
70
71
72
73
74
75
Fitted
56
57
58
59
Alcohol Involved Crashes with Fatalities
VS. Crashes Involving Fatalities
160
ALCFATALCOLL
140
120
100
80
60
40
150
200
250
300
350
FATALCOLLISIONS
400
450
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The End
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