Transcript EUKLEMS_Powerpoint_master

WP 1 Inter-industry
Accounts
2nd EUKLEMS Consortium Meeting,
9-11 June 2005, Helsinki
This project is funded by the European Commission, Research
Directorate General as part of the 6th Framework Programme,
Priority 8, "Policy Support and Anticipating Scientific and
Technological Needs".
MFP growth
d ln t j   wijY Yij d ln Yij   wijM X ijM d ln X ijM   wijX X ijD d ln X ijD
i
i
i
 w jK d ln K j  w jL d ln L j
•
•
Need value shares and volume growth rates of gross output,
intermediate inputs (domestic and import), labour and capital
services at industry level
Collect data in consistent framework: Supply and Use tables (SUT).
Why?
•
•
Consistency between input and output, and various prices
Data useful for wider applications (tax reforms, role of trade and
transport, macro-economic modelling, IO-analysis etc.)
EUK industries
•
•
Why SUT and not Input-output tables?
•
•
•
IO are derived from SUT
SUT available from 1995 onwards
Easier to deflate and balance
EUK industry list
•
•
Starting point A60 of Eurostat
Additional breakdown for
• High tech sectors
• Future revisions
• Imputed rent
Required Supply and Use tables
1.
2.
3.
4.
USE table for domestic output at basic prices
USE table for imports at basic (c.i.f.) prices
SUPPLY table at basic prices
VALUATION matrices
a.
b.
c.
d.
Use-side trade margin table
Use-side transport margin table
Use-side non-deductible VAT on commodities
Use-side other taxes net of subsidies on domestic
commodities
e. Use-side other taxes net of subsidies on imports
Transformation to basic prices
Supply and use tables
Supply
table at
purchasers’
prices
Imports
cif
Supply table at
basic prices
Use
table at
purchasers’
prices
Use table of imports
at basic prices
Valuation matrices
Wholesale
trade
margins
Retail
trade
margins
Transport
margins
Taxes
on products
Subsidies
on products
Use table at basic prices
Use table of domestic production at basic prices
Availability of SUTs
A. Long series of constant SUT: Denmark, Finland, Netherlands and
France.
B. Short series of constant price SUT for 1990s and IO tables for
earlier years: Germany, Luxembourg, Sweden
C. Long-term series of current price SUT and IO and reasonable
deflators: Italy, Austria, UK, Spain
D. without reasonable (service) deflators: Belgium , Ireland
E. Countries with no SUT or IO before 1995: Eastern European
countries, Greece, Portugal
Standard approach B-D: derive consistent series of current price
SUT and deflate
Derivation of time series of current
price SUTs (1)
•
•
•
Our default option is to generate long-term series of ESA 95 NA
compatible SUTs with FISIM distributed and EUK list of industries
Steps to be taken
1. Start with benchmark tables and latest NA output and value
added series.
2. Make ESA95 compatible
- software, transport, government depreciation reallocation
- industrial classification NACE 1 (EUK)
- FISIM
3. Interpolation techniques for non-benchmark years
Alternative: make series of ESA79/NACE0 and link to ESA95
series
Current price SUTs (2)
•
•
•
•
Reallocation of FISIM: Why and How?
• Proportional to output (Eurostat)
• Proportional to financial service input
• Proportional to outstanding loans
Estimation of valuation matrices
•
Often only total margins, total net tax etc. Blow up to total matrix using
reference year, or output matrix structure.
IO-tables can be transformed into SUT, avoid negatives (see
Beutel 2005)
Industry breakdowns
• Industry classification and level of detail does not need to be
constant across countries and/or over time
• Keep as much detail as possible!
• Trade-off in detail and resources
Current price SUTs (3)
Interpolating benchmarks
RAS-techniques (biproportional or more advanced)
•
•
•
More research needed into appropriate methods
For projection and retrojection:
•
•
•
Eurostat method (Beutel 2002): based on value added and
final demand totals from National Accounts
Kratena (2005)
Others?
Constant price SUTs
•
•
•
•
Basics:
•
•
•
•
Default: use chained Paasche price indices and Laspeyres volume
indices
Deflate at lowest level possible
Deflate intermediate use at basic price
Need to deflate margins and net taxes as well
Assumption 1: Basic prices are identical in all uses.
Assumption 2: industry outputs at both current and constant
prices have to be equal to National Accounts values
Starting point: (implicit) gross output deflator (basic price) from NA
•
•
•
•
All products from industry j have same basic price, so basic price of
product i differs by producing industry
Calculate domestic basic price of i using Supply table
Deflate row in Use Table with this basic price
Hence SUT rows are balanced
Austria (Kurt Kratena)
•
•
•
SUT/IOT for 1995/97/99-01 (ESA 95),
1990 SUT ESA 79 -> ESA 95 base with Stat Aus
How to backdate from earlier table on basis of NA
series, 1976-1990?
•
•
•
How to transform NA data into row and column total of II
matrix.
Best initial guess of elements of II matrix, using unpublished
NA data on intermediate inputs by broad product groups
followed by biprop RAS
Austria
•
•
Aim: II matrix at basic prices
Row total: II= (Y+M)-(C+I+G+E) by product at basic price
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ex and Im from Int. trade stat
Y from NA (by industry) transformed with S matrix to product
C,G,I from NA at purchase price and different classification. Need
bridge matrices to convert to basic price and EUK.
Bridge matrices change over time and this change is estimated with
help of tables after 1990.
Column total: II = Y – VA by industry at basic price from Nat Acc
Initial guess for elements of II: use time series on input data by 8
broad categories for 1976-1990. Estimate bridge matrix to
disaggregate to EUK on post 1990 data.
RAS 1976-1990.
Finland (Toivola and Pasanen)
•
•
•
•
•
1995-200x: SUT series.
Annual NA series 1974-1995 conform ESA 95
NOT using old IO-tables
Reconstructed SUT at current and constant price for
1974-1995.
Basic data from NA: GO and II at basic price by
industry; Im/Ex/C/G/I by product; net tax by product;
trade and trans margins (NOT by product)
Finland
•
For reference years (1975/80/85/90)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
32 industries
S at basic price: secondary production (7% in 1995 fixed)
U at purchase price: final use from NA, II breakdown based on
1995
U at basic price: distribute net tax, some assumptions about
margins, distributed based on shares in purchase price output
Manual balancing of S and U at basic price by product: shift II
and secondary production
RAS to eliminate remaining discrepancies
Linear intrapolation for years inbetween
Deflation:
•
previous year prices, use export and domestic produce prices
(?), volume of margins same as volume of basic price output
Way forward
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
SUT framework is overarching framework
Keep details when possible
General guidelines, each country is different
Important to document basic data sources and
methodologies used (share)
For most countries: might wait for FISIM adjustment of
NA in coming months (if!), but older tables can be put
in shape
Bilateral consultation with other members
Workshop?