Transcript NGATS Weather Briefing to ATO SEs

The Next Generation Air
Transportation System (NGATS)
Bruce Carmichael
Forecasting Team Co-lead
Weather IPT
303-497-8406
What We Face
• 60-80% of traffic delays have a weather
connection
• If traffic counts grow anywhere near projections
(JPDO NGATS), ability of current system to
accommodate growth is essentially impossible
• System breakdown unavoidable unless capacity
grows by 2 to 3 times
• Caveat: we must plan for a future still full of
unknowns, never-the-less (airline difficulties,
terrorism, natural calamity, etc.)
• The system must have much more capacity and
be safe
NGATS ORGANIZATIONS
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Department of Transportation
Federal Aviation Administration
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Department of Commerce
Department of Defense
Department of Homeland Security
Office of Science and Technology Planning
The NGATS Institute
2025 NGATS Concept
Operating Principles
• “It’s about the users…”
• System-wide transformation
• Prognostic approach to safety
assessment
• Globally harmonized
• Environmentally compatible
to foster continued growth
Key Capabilities
• Net-Enabled Information Access
• Performance-Based Services
• Weather-Assimilated Decision
Making
• Layered, Adaptive Security
• Broad-Area Precision Navigation
• Trajectory-Based Aircraft
Operations
• “Equivalent Visual” Operations
• “Super Density” Operations
System-Wide Transformation
Innovation Across All Lines of Development
Organization
Policy Change/Creation
Organizational Innovation
Culture Acceptance
Organization
Policy
Culture
Culture
Policy
Technology
Technology
Innovation
Technology
Net-Enabled Information Access
Global secure access, information handled according to
“communities of interest”
• “Shared Situation Awareness”
 Real-time free-flow of info from private, commercial, & government
sources, integrated internationally
 Tailored, responsive and secure
 Push/pull processes
 Common awareness of day-to-day ops, events, crises
• Aircraft are integral “nodes” in network
• Integrated cooperative air traffic and non-cooperative national
security surveillance
Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations
Adjust airspace configuration to meet user needs
• 4D trajectories (including taxi and roll-out)
are basis for planning and execution
• Machine-based trajectory analysis and
separation assurance
• Includes environmental performance
throughout all phases of aircraft operations
• Airspace configuration driven by: DoD/DHS
requirements, domestic & international user
needs, requirements for special-use
airspace, safety, environment, overall
efficiency
• Airspace reconfigurable during day of
operations
• Users “contract” for airspace access and
service
Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations:
Management-by-Trajectory
Strategic Domain
Tactical Domain
Separation Mgmt Domain
Airspace Organization and Management
Airport Operations
Airspace User Operations
Demand & Environmental
Performance Balancing
Information Management
ATM Service Delivery Management
Projected Profiles
Planned Profiles
User Requested
Profile
Conformance
Monitoring
Agreement
Clearance
Weather, Aggregate Flow, Airport
Configuration/Infrastructure
Key Issues are functional allocation between:
 Automation and humans
 Aircraft operators and service provider
Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations:
“Evaluator”
• Integrates/communicates weather, security, defense, environmental,
safety, international considerations, other information
• Users “post”/update desired 4D trajectories in common system that
continuously evaluates mutual compatibility
• Predicts potential “over demand” situations, in multiple “capacity
dimensions”—traffic density, environmental, security, etc.
• Works across all time horizons from days/weeks/months prior to flight
up to separation management (20 minutes or less)
• Supports distributed decision-making environment where players have
clear, agreed-upon roles and interactions
Equivalent Visual Operations
Increasing capacity from today’s non-visual conditions
• Aircraft perform "equivalent visual" operations in non-visual
conditions (achieve “VFR capacity” under these conditions)
• ATM provider delegates “maintain separation” responsibility to
aircraft operators
 Requires timely, high fidelity information on nearby aircraft, weather, etc
• System-wide availability at all air portals
 With appropriately capable “landside” (including security)
• Greater predictability of operations at busy airports, including
ground operations
Weather Assimilated into Decisions
Common weather picture across NGATS
• Fuse global weather observations and
forecasts into single information system,
dynamically update as needed
 Tens of 1000’s of sensors (airborne &
ground) feed 100’s of forecast models
• Learning automation accounts for weather
and its uncertainties in managing aircraft
trajectories
• Identify hazardous weather real-time
• Assimilated into NGATS “decision loops”
 Total integration via machine-to-machine
 Critical decision system time scales using
both probabilistic and deterministic weather
info
 Optimized to maximize available weatherfavorable airspace
 Terminal weather impacts including
ground/ramp ops and adaptability due to
wind shift changes
2025 NGATS Vision
• The number and complexity of NGATS command and control
decisions at any given moment will require the total system to be
largely automated
• This requires weather information to be passed digitally, rather
than as text or graphic products
• The “system” will use smart pull technology to obtain required
weather information for any given decision
• Traditional aviation weather products will be reduced or outright
eliminated (e.g., Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts, Area Forecasts…)
As needed presentation of three-dimensional weather
information, projected into the future, will allow the National
Airspace System’s operational systems to make weather-savvy
decisions
Weather in the Future
• Common weather picture – A “data cube” will ensure
NGATS users share consistent information
• It’s not about looking at a lot of sensor data, its about
providing an accurate diagnosis and forecast of phenomena
that are important to aviation
• Weather information fully integrated into all ground- and
cockpit-based decision support systems/tools
– 4DT based on current and forecast weather
– Real time weather updates posted and pushed to all impacted
subscribers
• Probabilistic forecasts enable prognostic, risk-based
decisions on allowing aircraft to tactically traverse certain
weather phenomena
– Enables capacity management
– Opens more airspace to the system
DST algorithms are owned by the operators not weather.
Weather is just one input to the algorithm
NGATS/JPDO Aviation Weather
IPT
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Observations (improved suite)
Forecasts (new science, automation, probability)
Dissemination (4D Weather Information System)
Integration (critical joining of weather with ATM)
Aircraft Mitigation (harden aircraft for weather)
Training (“just-in-time”)
Policy
Systems Engineering
Emphasis and Priorities:4–D Weather -Official Product of the Future
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18:30
Probability Distribution
Function of Magnitude
•Convection
•Wind Speed
•Volcanic Ash Concentration
•Turbulence
•Wind Direction
•Wake/Vortex Dissipation Potential
•Icing
•Temperature
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•Snowfall
•Humidity
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•Ceiling
•Noise Propagation Potential
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•Visibility
•Airport Plume Concentration
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•Radiation from Space
•Atmospheric Sensitivity to Exhaust
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Production of aviation weather
products – the JPDO vision
Constantly Refreshed
Statistical
Systems
Automated
Decision
Support
Systems
NWP
Models
Observations
Automated
Intelligent
Forecast
Systems
Human
Forecaster
Input
4-D
Global
Database
Custom
Graphics
Generators
Custom
Alphanumeric
Generators
This plan includes many factors
in strategic and tactical airspace
management, such as:
• Aircraft separation
• Hazardous weather separation
• Time en route
• Fuel burn
• Noise impact
• Environmental impact
Aviation Weather Dissemination, 2025
Foundation for Net-Enabled Weather Operations
Air-Air
AIR-Ground
Rides on Net Enabled
Information System
A-G/A-A
I/F
Urgent Wx
Aircraft Networks and
Wx Sensors/Displays
Community of
Interest
Community of
Interest
Net-Centric Enterprise Services
and Network Shared Services
A-G/A-A
A/C pulled
Displays
I/F Wx
and pushed
Aircraft Wx Obs
Controllers
And Wx requests
Displays
Displays
AOC
Evaluator and DSS
community of
Interest
Community of
Interest
Wx Processed into ATM Decisions
With Drill Down Available
Ground-Ground
Authoritative Wx
Pulled and Pushed
Requested Obs
Obs to push and
Pull customers
Training
Airports
Ground/Space
Based
Observations
Forecasting
Multi-sensor QA’ed Obs
Assimilated Obs
Forecast, Nowcast, Diagnosis
Summary
• Plan to support to broad range of possible NGATS “futures”
– Actual evolution to target curb-to-curb concept likely will
consider multiple alternate paths
– Develop systems to support those alternatives
– Transition from today’s system to future system
• Provide information that support common situational
awareness
– Intelligent fusion of data, models, and predictors into a single
authoritative data base
– Common understanding of the definitions and limitations of
the information elements
• Enable integration of weather information into DSS
– Develop reliable probabilistic information
– Develop generic information products that can be customized
to meet the needs of service provider and customer systems
– Develop new products jointly with DSS community