Transcript Canadian Automotive Industry Overview

Italian Trade Commission
Webinar Canada – December 9, 2014
GS Global Solutions
2021 = 107.6 Million
80,000,000
Middle-East/Africa
60,000,000
Asia-Pacific
40,000,000
Eastern Europe
20,000,000
Western Europe
South America
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0
North America
2021 VS. 2013 Growth
2021 vs. 2009 CAGR
2021 vs. 2013 CAGR
18.69
15.5%
6.7%
1.8%
4.57
6.08
33.2%
4.3%
3.6%
WE
12.54
15.40
22.9%
2.1%
2.6%
EE
6.76
8.00
18.5%
4.2%
2.1%
AP
43.48
58.43
34.4%
6.0%
3.8%
ME/A
0.75
1.03
38.1%
6.9%
4.1%
TOTAL
84.26
107.62
27.7%
5.2%
3.1%
Region
2013 (Mil)
2021 (Mil)
NA
16.18
SA
Source: AutoForecast Solutions – October 2014
GS Global Solutions
20,000,000
Asia-Pacific
Removed
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
Middle-East/Africa
10,000,000
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
8,000,000
South America
6,000,000
North America
4,000,000
2,000,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
0
3
Source: AutoForecast Solutions – October 2014
GS Global Solutions
New NAFTA Environmental Regulations
Smaller, lighter vehicles, with upgraded fuel-efficient
powertrains.
Will people want to drive much smaller vehicles? Will vehicle
profit be high enough to justify investment?
2017-2025 standards require a 65% improvement in fuel
economy over current levels.
Higher consumer ownership and operating cost.
Will consumers accept paying more … possibly much more …
for transportation?
How de we as suppliers support global platforms and still
look after local business opportunities?
GS4Global Solutions
Key drivers, enablers and constraints
2013 2014-16
Employment/Income Growth
Driving Age Population Growth
Age of Fleet
Ownership and Operating Cost
Affluence/Financial Stability
Technology
Fuel Economy Regs
Supply Chain Constraints
Source: AutomotiveCompass
GS5Global Solutions
20,000,000
15,000,000
United States
10,000,000
Mexico
5,000,000
Canada
Region
2013 (Mil)
2021 (Mil)
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0
2021 VS. 2013 Growth
2021 vs. 2009 CAGR
2021 vs. 2013 CAGR
Canada
2.37
1.80
-24.0%
1.7%
-3.4%
Mexico
2.93
4.33
48.2%
9.1%
5.0%
United States
10.88
12.55
15.3%
6.9%
1.8%
TOTAL NA
16.18
18.68
15.5%
6.7%
1.8%
6
Source: AutoForecast Solutions – October 2014
GS Global Solutions
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
United States
50%
Mexico
40%
Canada
30%
20%
10%
Canada NAFTA Market Share Declining
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0%
7
Source: AutoForecast Solutions – October 2014
GS Global Solutions
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
Canada
Mexico
8,000,000
United States
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
0
8
Source: AutoForecast Solutions – October 2014
GS Global Solutions
20,000,000
Region
2013
2021
15,000,000
Canada
14.7%
9.6%
10,000,000
Michigan &
Southern US
40.0%
40.7%
5,000,000
Mexico
18.1%
23.2%
Rest of United
States
27.3%
26.5%
Canada
Michigan
Southern US
Mexico
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
0
Mexico growing at the expense of Canada
9
Source: AutoForecast Solutions – October 2014
GS Global Solutions
5 Major OEMS – GM, Ford, Chrysler, Honda and Toyota
GM – 2 plants in Oshawa (Camaro, Regal, Impala, XTS),
CAMI Facility in Ingersoll (Equinox/Terrain)
Ford – Oakville (Edge, MKX, Flex, MKT), St. Thomas
(Crown Vic, Grand Marquis, Town Car – closed Sep 11)
Chrysler – Brampton (300C, Charger, Challenger, Lancia
Thema), Windsor (Caravan, T&C, Lancia GV, Routan)
Toyota – Cambridge (RX, Corolla, Matrix), Woodstock
(RAV4)
Honda – Alliston 1 & 2 (Civic, CR-V)
GS Global Solutions
2,500,000
2,000,000
Toyota
1,500,000
Honda
1,000,000
GM
500,000
Ford
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0
Fiat-Chrysler
VM
2013
2021
Volume Diff (2021 vs. 2013)
Fiat-Chrysler
572K
557K
-15K
Ford
258K
246K
-12K
GM
627K
133K
-494K
Honda
408K
394K
-14K
Toyota
505K
470K
-35K
TOTAL
2,371K
1,773K
-570K
11
Source: AutoForecast Solutions – October 2014
GS Global Solutions
10
2013 Rank
2013 Volume
2021 Rank
2021 Volume
China
United States
Japan
Germany
South Korea
India
Brazil
Mexico
Thailand
Canada
Spain
Russia
France
United Kingdom
20,905,245
10,884,072
9,194,394
5,650,674
4,463,220
3,674,104
3,489,242
2,925,621
2,651,035
2,370,493
2,019,361
1,909,115
1,722,558
1,519,230
China
United States
Japan
Germany
India
Brazil
South Korea
Mexico
Thailand
Spain
Russia
France
United Kingdom
Indonesia
32,157,310
12,327,504
9,719,592
6,176,447
5,472,900
4,839,542
4,677,959
4,395,016
2,989,325
2,844,354
2,362,894
2,144,283
1,929,163
1,841,158
Indonesia
Turkey
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Argentina
Italy
1,134,732
1,089,132
1,071,936
866,594
781,940
647,521
Canada
Czech Republic
Turkey
Italy
Slovakia
Argentina
1,772,480
1,398,801
1,261,532
1,147,945
1,005,616
880,392
<3 positions moved UP
3+ position moves UP
15
<3 positions moved DOWN
3+ position moves DOWN
No Change
Source: AutoForecast Solutions – July 2014
GS12
Global Solutions
Honda
Thru October 2014
70% of domestic Honda car sales are Canadian-built.
62% of domestic Honda Light Trucks are Canadian-built.
Toyota
Thru October 2014
61% of domestic Toyota car sales are Canadian-built.
40% of domestic Toyota Light Trucks are Canadian-built.
Lexus
Thru October 2014
88% of domestic Lexus Light Trucks are Canadian-built.
Source: Global Automakers of Canada (GAC)– October 2014
GS Global Solutions
Honda/Toyota
Production supports NAFTA consumption
Only location for RAV4 production in NAFTA
Strong domestic supply chain
Ford
Oakville ONLY source of Edge, Flex, MKT, MKX
New investment in global Edge program
FCA
Windsor only source for Minivans
Bramalea only source for Challenger, Charger, 300 (NAFTA)
GM
All Canadian-built vehicles can be built elsewhere!
Equinox – 4 Locations in NAFTA
Terrain - 2 locations in NAFTA; exiting Canada in 2017
Camaro – LEAVING Canada Prod in late 2015
Regal – LEAVING Canada Prod 2017
Impala – LEAVING Canada Prod late 2019
XTS – Replaced by LTS in 2016/2017 (Hamtramck/China)
Source: AutoForecast Solutions – July 2014
GS Global Solutions
Million Units of Production
Primary rank by 2013
0
10
20
30
China
United States
Japan
Germany
South Korea
India
Brazil
Mexico
Thailand
Canada
Spain
Russia
France
United Kingdom
Indonesia
Turkey
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Argentina
Italy
2021 Ranking Moves
-5
0
5
South Korea (#7)
India (#5)
Brazil (#6)
Canada (#15)
Spain (#10)
Russia (#11)
France (#12)
United Kingdom (#13)
Indonesia (#14)
Turkey (#17)
Czech Republic (#16)
Slovakia (#19)
Argentina (#20)
2013
2021
Italy (#18)
15
Source: AutoForecast Solutions – October 2014
GS Global Solutions
GS Global Solutions
Why is Canada the best place
in the G7 to do business?
Strongest Economic Growth in the G7
The Soundest Banking System in the World
The Lowest Business Costs in the G7
1 The
International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook April 2010.
The World Economic Forum. The Global Competitiveness Report 2010 - 2011.
3 KPMG. Competitive Alternatives 2010.
2
GS Global Solutions
Connected
Vehicle
APMA
Automotive Parts
Manufacturers
ITS Canada
Intelligent Transportation
Systems
Government
EMC
Electric Mobility Canada
First Responders
Police/ Fire/
Ambulance
Federal & Provincial
CTA – OTA
Academia
CUTA
Canadian & Ontario
Trucking Associations
University Researchers
Canadian Urban Transit
Association
GS Global Solutions
1. Customer
Facing Focus
10. Core
Competencies
2. Growth
3. Cost
Reduction
4. Technology
Increasing
the Value
of the
Business
5. Brand
Management
9. Systems &
Modules
8. Globalization
7. Resource
Pressure
6. Supply-Chain
Transformation
GS Global Solutions