Transcript Slide 1

ENROLMENT SUMMARY Key Facts, History and Projections
Presentation to the Partnership Table
May 14, 2007
May 2007
Page 1
Enrolment – DATA & FORECASTING NOTES
 Ministry of Education collects enrolment data from school boards.
 ADE (average daily enrolment) used for funding purposes is collected through the financial
reporting cycle.
 Detailed ADE information includes full-time equivalent counts for various grade groupings –
JK/SK, Grades 1 to 3, Grades 4 to 8, Secondary.
 ADE is also collected for each individual school.
 Other enrolment data collected by the ministry includes: headcount enrolment by individual
grades and schools (elementary and secondary); elementary class size reports.
 As part of the financial/fiscal planning cycle, school boards submit enrolment
projections.
 For the 2007-08 planning cycle, school boards submitted a two-year enrolment projection.
 Ministry develops internal enrolment projections for its multi-year plan.
 School-aged demographic trends and student retention rates are key inputs used to construct
ministry's long-term projections.
 Internal/Ministry projections supplement the short-term board projections.
May 2007
Page 2
Enrolment HISTORY – TOTAL
ADE
(000s)
TOTAL (Elementary + Secondary) Enrolment
2,000
1,975
1,950
1,925
1,900
1,875
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
May 2007
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Page 3
Enrolment HISTORY – TOTAL
TOTAL (Elem + Sec)
Enrolment History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing
1999-00
37
35
2000-01
34
38
2001-02
36
36
2002-03
41
31
2003-04
59
13
2004-05
39
33
2005-06
43
29
2006-07
54
18
May 2007
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Enrolment HISTORY – ELEMENTARY
ADE
(000s)
ELEMENTARY Enrolment
1,325
1,300
1,275
1,250
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
May 2007
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Page 5
Enrolment HISTORY – ELEMENTARY
ELEMENTARY Enrolment
History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing
1999-00
43
29
2000-01
37
35
2001-02
42
30
2002-03
42
30
2003-04
52
20
2004-05
59
13
2005-06
56
16
2006-07
63
9
May 2007
Page 6
Enrolment HISTORY – PRIMARY (JK to Gr 3)
ADE
(000s)
PRIMARY Enrolment
580
560
540
520
500
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
May 2007
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Page 7
Enrolment HISTORY – PRIMARY (JK to Gr 3)
PRIMARY (JK to Gr 3)
Enrolment History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing
1999-00
54
18
2000-01
46
26
2001-02
59
13
2002-03
55
17
2003-04
60
12
2004-05
63
9
2005-06
54
18
2006-07
58
14
May 2007
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Enrolment HISTORY – JR/Inter (Gr 4 to 8)
ADE
(000s)
JR/Intermediate Enrolment
775
750
725
700
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
May 2007
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Page 9
Enrolment HISTORY – JR/Inter (Gr 4 to 8)
JUNIOUR/INTERMEDIATE (Gr
4 to 8) Enrolment History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing
1999-00
31
41
2000-01
32
40
2001-02
26
46
2002-03
27
45
2003-04
37
35
2004-05
49
23
2005-06
55
17
2006-07
62
10
May 2007
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Enrolment HISTORY – SECONDARY
ADE
(000s)
SECONDARY Enrolment
700
680
660
640
620
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
May 2007
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
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Enrolment HISTORY – SECONDARY
SECONDARY Enrolment
History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing
1999-00
26
44
2000-01
29
41
2001-02
28
42
2002-03
44
26
2003-04
61
9
2004-05
18
52
2005-06
23
47
2006-07
18
52
May 2007
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Enrolment HISTORY – 2005-06 Cohorts
2005-06 headcount enrolment
ADE
(000s)
by individual grades (cohorts)
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
JK
SK
Grade 1
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
May 2007
Grade 7
Grade 8
Grade 9
Grade 10 Grade 11 Grade 12
(includes
5th yr)
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Enrolment HISTORY – REGIONAL TRENDS
Cumulative change in actual TOTAL ADE - by Region
GTA
Central
East
South West
North
PROVINCE
3%
-3%
-6%
-9%
% change from 2002-03
0%
-12%
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
May 2007
2005-06
-15%
2006-07
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Enrolment HISTORY – Board Size
# of
Boards
School Board Size Distribution in 1998-99
(based on Total ADE)
36
30
27
24
21
18
12
8
8
5
6
3
0
0 to 12,000
12 to 24,000
# of
Boards
36
24 to 36,000
36 to 48,000
48 to 60,000
60,000 and up
School Board Size Distribution in 2006-07
(based on Total ADE)
34
30
24
18
13
12
9
8
6
4
4
36 to 48,000
48 to 60,000
0
0 to 12,000
12 to 24,000
24 to 36,000
May 2007
60,000 and up
Page 15
Enrolment PROJECTIONS – TOTAL
ADE
(000s)
Total Enrolment - History and Projections
2,000
1,975
1,950
1,925
1,900
1,875
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
May 2007
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Proj
2008-09
Proj
2009-10
Proj
2010-11
Proj
Page 16
Enrolment PROJECTIONS – ELEMENTARY
ADE
(000s)
Elementary Enrolment - History and Projections
1,340
1,320
1,300
1,280
`
1,260
1,240
1,220
1,200
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
May 2007
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Proj
2008-09
Proj
2009-10
Proj
2010-11
Proj
Page 17
Enrolment PROJECTIONS – SECONDARY
ADE
(000s)
Secondary Enrolment - History and Projections
700
680
660
640
620
600
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
May 2007
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Proj
2008-09
Proj
2009-10
Proj
2010-11
Proj
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Enrolment PROJECTIONS – REGIONAL TRENDS
Cumulative change in PROJECTED TOTAL ADE - by Region
GTA
Central
East
South West
North
Province
3%
-1%
-3%
-5%
-7%
-9%
-11%
-13%
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
May 2007
2009-10
% change (projected) from 2006-07
1%
-15%
2010-11
Page 19
Enrolment and Demographics - PROJECTIONS
ADE
(000s)
Total Enrolment vs School-aged population - History and Projections
TOTAL ADE
5-19 Yr Demo
Population
(000s)
2,000
2500
1,975
2400
1,950
2300
1,925
2200
1,900
2100
1,875
2000
199899
199900
200001
200102
200203
200304
200405
200506
2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 201407 08 Proj 09 Proj 10 Proj 11 Proj 12 Proj 13 Proj 14 Proj 15 Proj
May 2007
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Enrolment and Demographics - SUMMARY
 Enrolment peaked in 2002-03, has been on the decline through 2006-07 and is projected to decline
over the next four years.
 Elementary enrolment is declining and secondary enrolment is increasing.
 Between 1998-99 and 2002-03, TOTAL ADE grew by almost 50,000 – a cumulative growth of 2.5%.
 Between 2002-03 and 2006-07, TOTAL ADE declined by over 50,000 – a cumulative decline of 2.5%.
 Over the next four year projection period (2007-08 to 2010-11), TOTAL ADE is projected to decline by about
50,000 – a cumulative decline of 2.6%.
 An increasingly large number of boards have been experiencing declining enrolment.
 Between 2002-03 and 2006-07, 52 school boards declined; 17 of these 52 schools boards declined by at least
10%.
 Between 2007-08 and 2010-11, 56 school boards are projected to decline in enrolment; 15 of these 56 schools
boards are projected to decline by at least 10%.
 Over the period between 2002-03 and 2010-11, 27 school boards are expected to decline by 15% or more;
another 11 boards are expected to decline by 10-15%.
 GTA is the only region projected to grow; Northern Ontario will experience the largest decline.
 Demographic projections of school-aged population through year 2014 suggest:
 Provincial decline is expected to continue; decline in elementary-aged cohort being the primary factor.
 GTA, the only growth area in the Province between 2002 and 2006, will be the only area in the province expected
to experience any marginal growth.
 Northern Ontario will continue to experience the largest decline.
 Central, East and South Western Ontario regions are expected to experience declines larger than their current
decline.
 New demographic projections, based on 2006 Census will be available in fall 2008.
May 2007
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Discussion Questions
 What planning do we need to undertake to deal with the
projected enrolment changes?
 What changes in policy or funding are required?
 What changes in school board planning processes are
required?
 What is working and effective for boards with declining
enrolment?
May 2007
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