Transcript Slide 1
ENROLMENT SUMMARY Key Facts, History and Projections
Presentation to the Partnership Table
May 14, 2007
May 2007
Page 1
Enrolment – DATA & FORECASTING NOTES
Ministry of Education collects enrolment data from school boards.
ADE (average daily enrolment) used for funding purposes is collected through the financial
reporting cycle.
Detailed ADE information includes full-time equivalent counts for various grade groupings –
JK/SK, Grades 1 to 3, Grades 4 to 8, Secondary.
ADE is also collected for each individual school.
Other enrolment data collected by the ministry includes: headcount enrolment by individual
grades and schools (elementary and secondary); elementary class size reports.
As part of the financial/fiscal planning cycle, school boards submit enrolment
projections.
For the 2007-08 planning cycle, school boards submitted a two-year enrolment projection.
Ministry develops internal enrolment projections for its multi-year plan.
School-aged demographic trends and student retention rates are key inputs used to construct
ministry's long-term projections.
Internal/Ministry projections supplement the short-term board projections.
May 2007
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Enrolment HISTORY – TOTAL
ADE
(000s)
TOTAL (Elementary + Secondary) Enrolment
2,000
1,975
1,950
1,925
1,900
1,875
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
May 2007
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Page 3
Enrolment HISTORY – TOTAL
TOTAL (Elem + Sec)
Enrolment History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing
1999-00
37
35
2000-01
34
38
2001-02
36
36
2002-03
41
31
2003-04
59
13
2004-05
39
33
2005-06
43
29
2006-07
54
18
May 2007
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Enrolment HISTORY – ELEMENTARY
ADE
(000s)
ELEMENTARY Enrolment
1,325
1,300
1,275
1,250
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
May 2007
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Page 5
Enrolment HISTORY – ELEMENTARY
ELEMENTARY Enrolment
History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing
1999-00
43
29
2000-01
37
35
2001-02
42
30
2002-03
42
30
2003-04
52
20
2004-05
59
13
2005-06
56
16
2006-07
63
9
May 2007
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Enrolment HISTORY – PRIMARY (JK to Gr 3)
ADE
(000s)
PRIMARY Enrolment
580
560
540
520
500
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
May 2007
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Page 7
Enrolment HISTORY – PRIMARY (JK to Gr 3)
PRIMARY (JK to Gr 3)
Enrolment History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing
1999-00
54
18
2000-01
46
26
2001-02
59
13
2002-03
55
17
2003-04
60
12
2004-05
63
9
2005-06
54
18
2006-07
58
14
May 2007
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Enrolment HISTORY – JR/Inter (Gr 4 to 8)
ADE
(000s)
JR/Intermediate Enrolment
775
750
725
700
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
May 2007
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Page 9
Enrolment HISTORY – JR/Inter (Gr 4 to 8)
JUNIOUR/INTERMEDIATE (Gr
4 to 8) Enrolment History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing
1999-00
31
41
2000-01
32
40
2001-02
26
46
2002-03
27
45
2003-04
37
35
2004-05
49
23
2005-06
55
17
2006-07
62
10
May 2007
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Enrolment HISTORY – SECONDARY
ADE
(000s)
SECONDARY Enrolment
700
680
660
640
620
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
May 2007
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
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Enrolment HISTORY – SECONDARY
SECONDARY Enrolment
History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing
1999-00
26
44
2000-01
29
41
2001-02
28
42
2002-03
44
26
2003-04
61
9
2004-05
18
52
2005-06
23
47
2006-07
18
52
May 2007
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Enrolment HISTORY – 2005-06 Cohorts
2005-06 headcount enrolment
ADE
(000s)
by individual grades (cohorts)
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
JK
SK
Grade 1
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
May 2007
Grade 7
Grade 8
Grade 9
Grade 10 Grade 11 Grade 12
(includes
5th yr)
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Enrolment HISTORY – REGIONAL TRENDS
Cumulative change in actual TOTAL ADE - by Region
GTA
Central
East
South West
North
PROVINCE
3%
-3%
-6%
-9%
% change from 2002-03
0%
-12%
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
May 2007
2005-06
-15%
2006-07
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Enrolment HISTORY – Board Size
# of
Boards
School Board Size Distribution in 1998-99
(based on Total ADE)
36
30
27
24
21
18
12
8
8
5
6
3
0
0 to 12,000
12 to 24,000
# of
Boards
36
24 to 36,000
36 to 48,000
48 to 60,000
60,000 and up
School Board Size Distribution in 2006-07
(based on Total ADE)
34
30
24
18
13
12
9
8
6
4
4
36 to 48,000
48 to 60,000
0
0 to 12,000
12 to 24,000
24 to 36,000
May 2007
60,000 and up
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Enrolment PROJECTIONS – TOTAL
ADE
(000s)
Total Enrolment - History and Projections
2,000
1,975
1,950
1,925
1,900
1,875
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
May 2007
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Proj
2008-09
Proj
2009-10
Proj
2010-11
Proj
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Enrolment PROJECTIONS – ELEMENTARY
ADE
(000s)
Elementary Enrolment - History and Projections
1,340
1,320
1,300
1,280
`
1,260
1,240
1,220
1,200
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
May 2007
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Proj
2008-09
Proj
2009-10
Proj
2010-11
Proj
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Enrolment PROJECTIONS – SECONDARY
ADE
(000s)
Secondary Enrolment - History and Projections
700
680
660
640
620
600
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
May 2007
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Proj
2008-09
Proj
2009-10
Proj
2010-11
Proj
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Enrolment PROJECTIONS – REGIONAL TRENDS
Cumulative change in PROJECTED TOTAL ADE - by Region
GTA
Central
East
South West
North
Province
3%
-1%
-3%
-5%
-7%
-9%
-11%
-13%
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
May 2007
2009-10
% change (projected) from 2006-07
1%
-15%
2010-11
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Enrolment and Demographics - PROJECTIONS
ADE
(000s)
Total Enrolment vs School-aged population - History and Projections
TOTAL ADE
5-19 Yr Demo
Population
(000s)
2,000
2500
1,975
2400
1,950
2300
1,925
2200
1,900
2100
1,875
2000
199899
199900
200001
200102
200203
200304
200405
200506
2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 201407 08 Proj 09 Proj 10 Proj 11 Proj 12 Proj 13 Proj 14 Proj 15 Proj
May 2007
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Enrolment and Demographics - SUMMARY
Enrolment peaked in 2002-03, has been on the decline through 2006-07 and is projected to decline
over the next four years.
Elementary enrolment is declining and secondary enrolment is increasing.
Between 1998-99 and 2002-03, TOTAL ADE grew by almost 50,000 – a cumulative growth of 2.5%.
Between 2002-03 and 2006-07, TOTAL ADE declined by over 50,000 – a cumulative decline of 2.5%.
Over the next four year projection period (2007-08 to 2010-11), TOTAL ADE is projected to decline by about
50,000 – a cumulative decline of 2.6%.
An increasingly large number of boards have been experiencing declining enrolment.
Between 2002-03 and 2006-07, 52 school boards declined; 17 of these 52 schools boards declined by at least
10%.
Between 2007-08 and 2010-11, 56 school boards are projected to decline in enrolment; 15 of these 56 schools
boards are projected to decline by at least 10%.
Over the period between 2002-03 and 2010-11, 27 school boards are expected to decline by 15% or more;
another 11 boards are expected to decline by 10-15%.
GTA is the only region projected to grow; Northern Ontario will experience the largest decline.
Demographic projections of school-aged population through year 2014 suggest:
Provincial decline is expected to continue; decline in elementary-aged cohort being the primary factor.
GTA, the only growth area in the Province between 2002 and 2006, will be the only area in the province expected
to experience any marginal growth.
Northern Ontario will continue to experience the largest decline.
Central, East and South Western Ontario regions are expected to experience declines larger than their current
decline.
New demographic projections, based on 2006 Census will be available in fall 2008.
May 2007
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Discussion Questions
What planning do we need to undertake to deal with the
projected enrolment changes?
What changes in policy or funding are required?
What changes in school board planning processes are
required?
What is working and effective for boards with declining
enrolment?
May 2007
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