Transcript Strategy Conversation Phases

Transformative
Scenarios
Looking to the future of civil
society and philanthropy
Mille Bojer, Reos
André Degenszajn, GIFE
Janaina Jatobá, Instituto C&A
SãoWINGS
Paulo,Forum
Brazil 2014
Istanbul, Turkey
June
27, 2013
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Objectives for this session
To understand how transformative scenarios can be used
to help articulate paths for civil society and to harness the
power of networks
To share two stories and explore what we can learn from
them about the situation of civil society in South Africa and
Brazil
To start a dialogue about the value of scenario thinking in
philanthhropy
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Warmup:
“If you could speak to a clairvoyant about
the future of civil society in your country,
what question would you most like to ask
them?”
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What are
transformative
scenarios?
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Scenarios:
“…structured, well considered stories
describing a small set of possible future
contexts and how they might come about.”
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Predictions
Projections
Preferences
Options
Stories of possible futures that are:
Relevant
Illuminate current circumstances and
concerns
Link into current mental models
Challenging
Make the invisible visible
Question current mental models
Plausible
Fact-based and logical
Improve systemic understanding
Clear
Distinct
Accessible and memorable
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Five steps
1. Convene a
team from the
whole system
2. Observe
what is
happening
3. Create the
stories that need
to be told
5. Act to transform
the system
4. Discover what can
and must be done
Source: Kahane
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How transformative scenarios
work
Our understanding
Our language
They transform
Our relationships
Our intentions
Our actions
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Dinokeng
Scenarios
Collectively constructing
a
sustainable future for South
Africa
EOS INSTITUTE 2013 SCENARIOS CASE STUDY SERIES
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The Context in 2009
• Seismic political shifts, with Jacob Zuma assuming the
presidency in 2009. A time marked by uncertainty, power
struggle and political reshuffling within the ANC.
• World in the midst of economic crisis, sending tremors
through the local economy
• Large-scale migration from the neighbouring state of
Zimbabwe and other countries in the region, and
xenophobic attacks across the stressed area.
• The effects of climate change and economic crisis placing
increasing pressure on agricultural production, rural
sustainability, and food security.
• Unacceptably high levels of crime.
• The realities of constructing a new nation had revealed
themselves as an entirely grittier and more complex task
than its people had anticipated.
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The Scenarios
Engaged
WALK TOGETHER
CHARACTER OF CIVIL SOCIETY
2020
Collaborative and enabling state.
Engaged and active citizenry
Innefective
CAPACITY OF THE STATE
Effective
Corrupt and inefecttive state.
2009
Distrusting and selfprotective citizenry
Interventionist and directive state.
Dependent and compliant citizenry..
2020
2020
WALK BEHIND
WALK APART
Disengaged
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The Impact
• Placed the simple, crucial “Walk Together” insight about citizen re-engagement
into the center of South African discourse. Example: The essence of the plan for
the country prepared by the National Planning Commission, set up in 2010,
focuses on engaging an active citizenry, promoting leadership through every
aspect of society, and building a capable state.
• Crystallized a core debate among South African leaders about the role that the
state should play in national development.
• Members of the Dinokeng team expanded their shared understanding of their
situation and of their roles in it. They helped their system get unstuck and move
forward.
• The large-scale dissemination of the Dinokeng scenarios was intended to
regenerate active participation by South Africans in their new democracy.
Dinokeng contributed to opening up and strengthening the country’s politics and
its capacity to deal with its challenges.
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Civil Society 2023:
Four futures for
Brazilian Civil
Society
In 2013, Reos entered into
partnership with the D3
Articulation for Democracy,
Dialogue and Rights and the
General Secretariat of the
Presidency of the Republic to
co-convene a transformative
scenarios process on the
future of civil society in Brazil,
labeled “Civil Society 2023”.
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Context for the Brazilian Civil Society
Scenarios
What is the current reality of Civil Society in Brazil?
What were the big uncertainties in 2013?
What big questions were we holding about the future?
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The Impact so far
Individual level: Shift in perspective, new actions
Organizational level: Incorporation into strategic planning
processes, impact on leaders,
Field level: Placing value on civil society, offering a new
language and specific risks and opportunities, creation of
a network, new partnerships among participating
organizations; dissemination nationally and internationally
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Questions, comments, reflections
“How is this all relevant to your context?”
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For more information:
www.reospartners.com
[email protected]
www.dinokengscenarios.co.za
www.sociedadecivil2023.org.br
Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the
Future by Adam Kahane (Berrett-Koehler, 2012). Available from
Amazon.
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