Transcript Introduction to MARKAL Model Structure and Applications

Introduction to MARKAL
Model Structure and Applications
Evelyn Wright and Dan Loughlin
U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development
NE-MARKAL Stakeholders Meeting
December 18, 2003
Outline
• Introduction to MARKAL model and
structure
• What questions can MARKAL answer
(and who is using it?)
• EPA's MARKAL modeling programs
Introduction to MARKAL model
and structure
What is MARKAL?
• An energy-technology-environment model
• Uses a bottom-up representation of energy-producing, transforming, and –consuming technologies
• Finds a least cost set of technologies to satisfy end-use
energy service demands AND policies specified by the
user
• Calculates resulting environmental emissions
What Does MARKAL Do?
• Identifies the most cost-effective pattern of resource use
and technology deployment over time.
• Quantifies the sources of emissions from the associated
energy system.
• Provides a framework for exploring and evaluating
alternative futures, and the role of various technology
and policy options.
• Quantifies the system-wide effects of energy and
environmental policies
How MARKAL Does It
• Represents all energy producing, transforming,
and consuming processes as an interconnected
network (Reference Energy System ).
• Selects technologies based on life-cycle costs of
competing alternatives.
• Evaluates all options within the context of the
entire energy/materials system by:
–
–
–
–
balancing all supply/demand requirements,
ensuring proper process/operation,
monitoring in detail each process’s capital stock turnover, and
adhering to user defined environmental & policy restrictions.
MARKAL: an economic
optimization energy system model
• Objective function:
– MIN[discounted total system cost]
– Total system cost includes capital, operating, and fuel costs,
plus any taxes assigned to environmental emissions
• Constraints:
– System constraints: energy balance, demands, electrical
system
– User imposed policy constraints, including emissions caps,
technology portfolio standards, taxes and subsidies
Key MARKAL features
• Bottom-up, technology rich approach
– Essential for assessing programs where technological change is key
• Coherent and transparent framework
– Data assumptions are open and each result may be traced to its
technological cause.
• Flexible
– Easy to modify technology and energy system descriptions to
represent local conditions, energy and environmental policies, and
"what if" scenarios
• Long history (> 20 years) of widespread use (> 50 countries)
MARKAL Users
Total OECD Countries = 21
Total Developing Countries = 23
Total Other Countries = 13
MARKAL's four stage representation of an
energy system
Primary Energy
Supply
Process
Technologies
End-Use
Technologies
(Final Energy)
Renewables e.g.
-Biomass
-Hydro
Mining e.g.
-Crude oil
-Natural gas
-Coal
Imports e.g.
-crude oil
-oil products
Exports e.g.
-oil products
-coal
Stock changes
Fuel processing
Plants e.g.
-Oil refineries
-Hydrogen prod.
-Ethanol prod.
Power plants e.g.
-Conventional
Fossil Fueled
-Solar
-Wind
-Nuclear
-CCGT
-Fuel Cells
-Combined Heat
and Power
(Useful Energy)
Industry, e.g.
-Steam boilers
-Machinery
Services, e.g.
-Air conditioners
-Light bulbs
Households, e.g.
-Space heaters
-Refrigerators
Agriculture, e.g.
-Irrigation pumps
Transport, e.g.
-Gasoline Car
-Fuel Cell Bus
Demand for
Energy Service
Industry, e.g.
-Process steam
-Motive power
Services, e.g.
-Cooling
-Lighting
Households, e.g.
-Space heat
-Refrigeration
Agriculture, e.g.
-Water supply
Transport, e.g.
-Person-km
Example MARKAL Reference Energy
System with one end-use demand
Each box
box is a MARKAL technology
Each arrow is a MARKAL energy carrier
Portion of an actual MARKAL RES
Example Resource Block
Carbon, NOx, SOx,
VOC, particles
Coal
Mine
Bit. Coal, 0.8–1.7
# Sulfur/mmBtu
DATA
– Maximum output (total, per year, or both)
– Price per unit output
– Emissions coefficients
Examples of Resources
• Mining/extraction of
– Bituminous coal, 0.4–1.7% sulfur
– Lignite, 0.8–1.7% sulfur
– Domestic crude oil
• Imports of
– Crude oil
– Electricity
– Natural gas
• Stockpile of uranium
• Biomass crops
• Municipal waste
Example Process Block
Carbon, NOx, SOx, VOC,
particles
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Liquids
Gasoline
Oil Refinery
Diesel Fuel
Residual Oil
DATA
•
•
Capital and operating costs
Efficiency
•
•
•
Availability
Inputs and outputs
Emissions
Example Processes
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Refineries
Coke Oven
Coal Gasification Processes
Steam Methane Reforming
Production of Ethanol from Biomass
Pipelines
Emissions Control Devices
• Anything that changes the form or
location of a fuel
Example Demand Technology
Block
Carbon, NOx, SOx,
VOC, particles
Gasoline
Gasoline ICE
Vehicle
DATA
 Capital and operating
costs
 Efficiency
 Demand(s) serviced
Light-duty transport demand




Availability
Input energy carrier
Emissions
DISCRATE
Examples of demand technologies
•
•
•
•
•
Cars
Refrigerators
Air conditioners
Lightbulbs
Industrial motors
What questions can
MARKAL answer?
(with some current and recent applications)
Technology availability and policy
• What happens if a new technology becomes available,
or if an old one becomes cheaper or more efficient?
– U.S. DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office,
National Energy Technology Lab, and National Renewable
Energy Lab, to evaluate benefits from R&D programs
– U.S. EPA ORD technology scenarios assessment
• What are the implications of a technology forcing policy
(e.g. renewable portfolio standard)?
• Project future energy consumption and technology
utilization (U.S. Energy Information Administration,
International Energy Agency)
Environmental emissions policies
• Establish baseline GHG projections and evaluate costs
and effectiveness of reduction strategies (DOE/AID,
EPA OAR, many national and international studies)
• Examine co-control benefits of GHG reduction
measures (Belgium)
• Compare impact of single pollutants vs. multipollutant
emissions constraints (EPA OAR)
• Compare varying emissions permit allocations and
trading schemes (Canada)
Carbon emissions constraint example results
C o n trib u tio n to C arb o n R ed u ctio n
25000
T h o u sa n d T o n C O 2
20000
L O S S O F G FROM
D P
REDUCTIONS
+ E F F IC IE N C Y
15000
+ R EN EW AB LE
R ED UCED D EM AN D
10000
L E S S C O 2 /F O S S I L
R E M A IN IN G
5000
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Y ear
2020
2025
2030
Other uses
• Assess energy price, technology, and environmental
implications of varying scenarios for future resource
supplies and prices (EPA ORD)
• Serve as a vehicle to foster communication, synthesize
and manage information, and promote stakeholder
involvement on energy-technology issues (EPA ORD)
• Examine how demand-side actions affect the supplyside, and vice versa
EPA's MARKAL modeling
programs
EPA ORD national MARKAL modelling
goals
• Develop and make available a transparent,
well-documented national MARKAL database
• Create and assess scenarios of technology futures in
transportation and electricity production
• Take into account driving forces including
– Technological improvements
– Energy supply and price
– Environmental, energy, and land use policies
• Provide input to EPA studies of future environmental
loadings and impacts
Scenario assessment approach (1)
• Gather data from the major stakeholders in
transportation technology futures
–
–
–
–
–
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Industry
Academic researchers and the National Academies
NGOs
Department of Energy and Transportation
EPA's OAQPS and OTAQ
State governments
• Allows us to cover the range of possible futures and
respond to others' technology assessments
Scenario assessment approach (2)
• Transportation technologies to be assessed include
– Conventional and advanced gasoline and diesel ICEs
– Gasoline and diesel hybrids
– Hydrogen, gasoline, and methanol fuel cells
• Electricity generation technologies to be assessed
include
–
–
–
–
Advanced coal and natural gas plants
Renewable plants
Advanced nuclear plants
Carbon capture and sequestration
Additional EPA national MARKAL
projects
• OAR Office of Atmospheric Programs
– Developing goal programming tools to address trade-offs in
the assessment of multipollutant strategies
– Developing improved, technologically rich characterization of
industrial sector energy use
• OAR Methane and Sequestration Branch
– Using MARKAL to assess emissions and energy implications
of methane mitigation technologies and programs
EPA National MARKAL database
Sector
Sources
Technologies
Transportation
DOE OTT
15 personal vehicle technologies in 5 size classes; 40 other
passenger and freight technologies
Electricity
NEMS, EPRI
45 technologies
Commercial
NEMS
300 heating, cooling, ventilation, lighting, and refrigeration
technologies
Residential
NEMS
135 heating, cooling, lighting, and refrigeration technologies
Industrial
SAGE
Placeholder
Coal supply
NEMS
25 types by region, sulfur content, and mine type. 8-step
supply curves
Oil/gas supply
NEMS, USGS 5 grades imported oil; 9 imported refined products plus natural
gas. 3-step supply curves.
Domestic oil and gas production under development
Emissions
EPA, GREET
Under development
EPA National Model Forecasting
Methodology
• MARKAL results are driven by demand projections and
technology characterizations
• Currently, demand projections are taken from the
Annual Energy Outlook, extrapolated beyond its time
horizon
• Technology results are loosely calibrated to AEO results
• We are exploring methods to link MARKAL with other
economic models for both regional and national
projects; demand would be driven by GDP and other
economic and demographic projections
EPA regional MARKAL program
• We wish to provide input to studies of future air quality and
ecological impacts of energy-using technologies
– This requires finer-than-national resolution
• We recognize that states and localities need tools to examine
criteria pollutant and GHG emission implications of energy and
environmental policies
• We wish to understand the advantages a regional model offers
over a national model, for both research and policy purposes
• We are very glad to be working with NESCAUM to support the
development of NE-MARKAL
For more information on EPA ORD's
national MARKAL data or MARKAL
modeling programs, or any questions,
contact
Evelyn Wright
(919) 541-3609
[email protected]
National Risk Management Research Laboratory
Mail Drop E-305-02
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711