NATO’s Future Role:

Problems and Prospects

Dr Paul Cornish Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 1

Old NATO

1949 -1989

• Cold War • Politico-Military Alliance • Threat • Article 5 • Territorial Defence • US Role • US-European Strategic Relationship Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 2

Confused NATO

1989 -1999

• Threat?

• Purpose?

• Scope?

• Politico-Military Alliance • New Strategic Concept • Enlargement and Open Door • US Leadership • NATO/EU Relations Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 3

New NATO?

1999 - Present

• Security Provider • Multiple Threats • NATO Capabilities • Military Transformation • Budget Driven • NATO/EU Relationship: ‘Berlin Plus’ • Enlargement and Outreach Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 4

NATO

Enlargement and Outreach

Canada United States

Belarus

Holy See

Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Rep.

Monaco

Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan

Bulgaria Iceland Norway Romania Turkey Belgium France Germany Greece Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain UK Czech Rep.

Denmark Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovak Rep.

Slovenia

Austria,

Cyprus,

Finland, Ireland,

Malta,

Sweden Albania

Andorra

Armenia Azerbaijan

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Croatia

FRY [Serbia-Mont.]

FYROM Georgia

Liechtenstein

Moldova Russia

San Marino

Switzerland Ukraine NATO Mediterranean Dialogue (7)

Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 5

NATO

Threats, Drivers and Shocks

• Threats: Terrorism, WMD, ‘Rogue States’ etc.

• Drivers of the Global Strategic Environment – Globalisation – Asymmetric Warfare – Demographic and Environmental Changes – Failing States – Radical Ideologies – Unresolved Conflicts • Shocks to NATO: 15 Years • Global Response Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 6

NATO

Initiatives and Concepts

Initiatives: • Allied Command Transformation • NATO Response Force • Military Concept for Defence Against Terrorism • Civil Emergency Planning Action Plan • Deployable NBC Analytical Laboratory • NBC Event Response Team • NBW Weapons Defence Centre • NATO BW/CW Defence Stockpile • Disease Surveillance System Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 7

NATO

Initiatives and Concepts

Concepts: • Holistic Security: – Political/Military/Civil/Economic • Multidimensional Security: – Conflict Prevention – Crisis & Consequence Management – Peacekeeping – Support to Peacemaking – Disaster Response – Humanitarian Assistance – Post-combat and Post-conflict Capability Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 8

NATO

The Transformation Agenda

• Intelligence • Accountability • Public Support • Agility • Interoperability • Adaptable Force Structures • Integrated Logistics • Suitable for Networked Environment Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 9

NATO

Command and Control

• Leaner Structure: – Operations Command – Transformation Command • Interoperability: – Liaison – Deconfliction – Integration – New Technologies and Concepts • Effects-based Approach Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 10

NATO

The Effects-Based Approach

An effects-based approach involves the comprehensive integrated application of all instruments of Alliance power, both military and non-military, to create campaign effects which will achieve desired outcomes. This approach can be adopted at all levels of command and across the spectrum of conflict.

NATO’s Strategic Commanders

Strategic Vision: The Military Challenge

2004 (Draft) Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 11

NATO

Capability Programmes, Goals and Requirements

• Programmes: DCI – PCC • Goals: – Decision Superiority – Coherent Effects – Joint Deployment and Sustainment • Requirements: – Improved Intelligence and Information-Sharing – Network-Enabled Capability – Robust and Flexible CIS Foundation – More Deployable and Adaptable Forces – Improved Co-ordination and Co-operation – Improved Post-Conflict Operations – Interoperable Logistics Systems Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 12

NATO

Problems and Prospects

• Threat • Article 5/Territorial Defence • Transformation • US Leadership • NATO/EU Relations • Franco/US Relations • Russia • New Strategic Concept? • NATO = 26 Nations • Outreach • National Caveats • Ends and Means • European Defence Spending Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 13

NATO Europe and US Defence Expenditure, and Defence Expenditure as % GDP (US $m constant 2000) Belgium Czech Republic Denmark France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Spain Turkey United Kingdom United States

Average

Sofia 1-2 March 2005

US$m

3583 n.a. 1858 30659 29393 3439 2060 n.a. 13729 74 5731 2651 21644 964 5856 3489 35003 380899

1985 %GDP

2.9 n.a. 2.1 3.9 3.2 7.0 6.8 n.a. 2.2 1.0 2.9 2.8 20.5 3.2 2.4 3.1 5.2 6.1

4.2

US$m

2953 1158 2456 32438 26729 5245 902 n.a. 21528 156 6083 2884 3436 2277 7007 7018 33967 299917

2001 %GDP

1.3 2.1 1.6 2.5 1.5 4.6 1.7 n.a. 2.0 0.8 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.2 4.9 2.5 3.1

2.1

Paul Cornish

US$m

3435 1401 2564 38005 31465 6154 1083 n.a. 24210 193 7330 3434 3400 2945 8253 8727 35249 329616

2002 %GDP

1.3 2.1 1.6 2.5 1.5 4.4 1.8 n.a. 1.9 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.2 5.1 2.4 3.3

2.1

14

Three Options

1. NATO Revived 2. NATO-EU Transfer 3. New Transatlantic Treaty Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 15

NATO’s Future Role:

Problems and Prospects

Dr Paul Cornish Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 16