Transcript The United Nations’ MDG Strategy

UNDP RBA Workshop on
MDG-Based
National Development Strategies
Module 2:
Technical Issues
UN Millennium Project
February 27-March 3, 2006
Agenda

Objectives of MDG based needs assessments

Overview of different costing methodologies

The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical
illustration from the education sector

Process of MDG based planning
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Motivation
MDG Needs Assessments aim to flip the
question:
FROM: How close can we get to the MDGs
under the current constraints?
TO:
What will it take to achieve the MDGs?
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Principles of Development Strategies
that are MDG-based
Typical strategy today
MDG-based development strategy
MDG
target
Level of
MDG
progress
?
1990
MDG
Base Year
2005
YEAR
2008
2015
MDG
Target Deadline
1990
MDG
Base Year
4
2005 2008
YEAR
2015
MDG
Target Deadline
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Objectives of an MDG Needs
Assessment

Answer the question: “What will it take to achieve the
MDGs?”
 Translate the MDGs into operational targets
 “Localize” the MDGs
 Develop a strategy for increasing “absorptive capacity”

Can be used as a framework for assessing needs of
other relevant sectors for the country

Strengthen coherence between planning and budget
processes and guide programming of expenditures

Provide a monitoring and accountability framework

Support the national policy dialogue and negotiations
with development partners
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Approach to Aligning National
Development Strategies with the MDGs
Long-term plan
aligned with
the MDGs
MDG-based
development
strategy
 Quantify
inputs
needed to
meet MDGs
 Identify
policies and
institutions to
meet needs
 Short-term 3-5 year
strategy to launch
10-year strategy,
including:
 “What” &
“How Much”
 “How To”
MDG needs
assessment
through 2015
 MTEF
 Macro framework
 “What needs to be
done right now?”
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What is an MDG Needs Assessment?

Who and where are the poor?
– Identifying the population in need
– Disaggregating the analysis

What needs to be done?
– Focus on public investments (capital & operating costs)
– Needs Assessment from now until 2015
– Goods, services, infrastructure
 How much?
– Local unit costs x population in need
– Human resources required to meet each MDG
– Infrastructure needs
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MDG Needs Assessment Approach
1.Identify interventions
2.Specify targets for
each intervention
3.Estimate resource
needs
4.Check results
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Suggested Investment Clusters
1. Rural development
2. Urban development
3. Health systems
4. Education
5. Gender equality
6. Environment
7. Science, technology and innovation
8. Cross-national infrastructure
9. Public sector management 9
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Agenda

Objectives of MDG based needs assessments

Overview of different costing methodologies

The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical
illustration from the education sector

Process of MDG-based planning
10
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Limitations of
MDG Needs Assessments
Question addressed:
“Which interventions are needed across sectors to achieve the
Goals, and what are the associated requirements in terms of
human resources, infrastructure, and financing?”
Limitations:
 It is time intensive to develop detailed investment models
 Data needs are high
 Cross-sectoral dynamics cannot be modeled dynamically, but
require iterative adjustment of coverage targets
 Requires links to macroeconomic dynamics that need to be
modeled with the help of separate tools
 Does not identify complementary policies and institutional
reforms
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Comparison with
ICOR-based Approaches
Question addressed:
“What aggregate level of investment is needed to meet the
income poverty goal?”
Limitations compared to needs assessment:
 Cannot estimate human resource and infrastructure
requirements
 Provide no guidance to programming public expenditures
 Lump together public and private investments, and don’t
identify required changes in composition of investments
 Ignore MDG interventions that do not have a direct impact on
growth
 Historical ICORs and poverty elasticities apply only to
marginal changes and perform poorly in predicting growth and
poverty rates
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Comparison with Approaches Based
on Input-outcome Elasticities
Question addressed:
“What aggregate level of investment is required to meet
individual Goals?”
Limitations compared to needs assessment:
 Can only model a small number of aggregate variables across
few sectors – often ignore interventions from other sectors
 Bound by number of variables and equations necessary to
close the models mathematically- so often do not reflect the
full range of inputs needed to achieve the goals
 Provide no guidance to programming public expenditures
 Cannot estimate human resource and infrastructure
requirements
 Cannot avoid double-counting of interventions across sectors
 Based on historical elasticities that apply only to marginal
changes
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Comparison with Approaches Based
on Aggregate Unit Costs
Question addressed:
“What is the gap between current expenditures and those
required to achieve each Goal?”
Limitations compared to needs assessment:
 Unit costs are based on current or historic expenditures, which
may be a poor guide to future expenditures
 Provides little guidance to programming expenditures
 Cannot estimate human resource and infrastructure
requirements for MDGs
 Typically do not differentiate between capital and operating
costs
 Address only a subset of interventions within a sector
 Cannot incorporate cross-sectoral dynamics
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Agenda

Objectives of MDG based needs assessments

Overview of different costing methodologies

The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical
illustration from the education sector

Process of MDG-based planning
15
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MDG Needs Assessment Approach
1.Identify interventions
2.Specify targets for
each intervention
3.Estimate resource
needs
4.Check results
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Education Needs Assessment
Approach (1)
Country demographic data
Target coverage rates for:
•Primary Education
•Secondary Education
•Adult Literacy
Cost components for key
interventions
Students reached
by interventions
TOTAL
COSTS
Capital and recurrent
costs per student
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Education Needs Assessment
Approach (2)
Direct and
indirect
financial costs
_
Estimation of
teachers
needed
Estimation of
classrooms
_
needed
_
Capacity
Requirements
= Total Education Needs
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Key Assumptions for Education Needs
Assessment
 Interventions: Comprehensive set of interventions to
achieve primary education, secondary education and
literacy
 Targets: Coverage targets should aim at meeting MDGs
for entire population
 Investment model: Service delivery models should
reflect local needs and education structure; unit costs
should reflect costs for reaching hard-to-reach
populations.
 Financing: User fees should be eliminated for primary
education
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Interventions Needed to Meet Universal
Primary Education (UPE) Goal
1. Direct Primary Education interventions: infrastructure,
human resources, learning materials, demand side
interventions, etc
2. Secondary Education interventions because:

For marginalized groups, post-primary education is
needed to realize sufficient returns on education

Availability of secondary education increases parents’
incentive to send children to primary school

Secondary school graduates are needed to meet
supply of primary school teachers
3. Adult literacy programs
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Primary School Interventions (1/2)
Category
Infrastructure
Intervention
Classrooms
Toilets
Furniture
Teacher housing
Human
resources
Transportation facilities
Other Construction
Number of teachers (with
emphasis on female teachers)
Salaries
Training
Non-teaching staff
Target by 2015
1 per 40 children
1 per classroom, separate for boys and girls
1 blackboard per classroom, 1 desk and chair per
student
Where appropriate, as an incentive to retain teachers
School buses where needed*
Administrative facilities*
1 teacher for 40 students
Raised to 3.5*GDP per capita
Pre-service and in-service training for all teachers
Administrators, supervisors, trainers, as needed*
* Not included in MP preliminary cost estimates
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Primary School Interventions (2/2)
Category
Demand-side
interventions
Other
interventions
Intervention
School fees
Subsidies for girls
School meals and/or take home
rations
Other subsidy schemes such as
Conditional Cash Transfers
Uniforms, textbooks and other
learning material
Pedagogical and curriculum
reform
Improvement in capacity at the
Ministry and local level
Empowerment of local
communities
Monitoring, evaluation and data
collection
Target
Abolition of school fees for Primary Education
50 percent of girls by 2015
50 percent of children by 2015
As appropriate, for specific excluded groups*
1 set per student by 2015
As identified by local experts
In line with growing size of school system*
Needed to participate effectively in school-level
decisions*
As needed to track progress towards the targets*
* Not included in preliminary cost estimates
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Primary Education Targets
 For primary education the net enrolment rate and primary
completion rate to reach 100 percent, gross enrolment
rate to reach 107 percent by 2015
 The gender parity target in primary education was to be
achieved in 2005
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Post-Primary Interventions and
Targets
Category
Secondary
Education
Target by 2015
Transition rate of 80 percent
Intervention Categories
Infrastructure (classrooms, toilets, furniture,
teacher housing, transportation, libraries,
sports facilities, laboratories)
Human resources (teachers, non teaching
staff)
Demand side interventions (abolition of
school meals, subsidies for girls, school
meals and/or take home rations, uniforms,
textbooks, other learning materials, other
subsidy schemes)
Other interventions (curriculum reform,
management, monitoring and oversight,
capacity enhancement at Ministerial level)
Adult Literacy 100 percent literacy rates
Adult literacy programs (human resources,
learning material etc.)
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Estimating Resource Needs:
Education Needs Assessment Tool

The Education Needs Assessment Tool allows
users to translate intervention and target
choices into quantitative estimates of financial
and human resource needs
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Key Drivers of Cost and Variation
The key drivers of cost and variation in a
comprehensive country-wide needs assessment
are:
 Differences in population in need
 Differences in choice of interventions
 Differences in income levels
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Guiding Principles of MDG Needs
Assessments
 “Absorptive capacity” constraints are real in the short term,
but can be gradually relaxed through investments in human
resources, infrastructure and management systems
 Identify all interventions that require full or partial public
financing
 Include capital and operating costs for all sectors
 Undertake total, not incremental costing
 Strive for maximum disaggregation
 Ensure maximum transparency so that assumptions can be
adapted to countries’ needs. No “one-size-fits all”!
 Periodic revision of targets/interventions based on new
information and implementation of programs
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Agenda

Objectives of MDG based needs assessments

Overview of different costing methodologies

The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical
illustration from the education sector

Process of MDG-based planning
28
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Process of Making National Development
Strategies MDG-based

High-level political commitment

Nationally-owned

Integrated into on-going processes

MDGs as outcome indicators

Inclusive with participation from key actors

Transparent

Regularly reviewed
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Illustrative Organizational Structure
Office of the President/Prime Minister/
Ministry of Planning and Finance
MDG Strategy Group
(led by Ministry of Finance or Planning, participation from line ministries, representation
from UNCT)
Thematic Working Groups
(led by line ministries, including civil society, donors and UNCT, among others, covering
different investment clusters such as rural and urban development, health, education,
gender equality, environment, science and technology)
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Example: the Process in Ethiopia
Process
– Existing PRSP technical teams brought into process
– UN Agencies supported analysts in each sector
– UNDP coordinated with WB/UNCT together with the
Government
Milestones
– MDG needs assessment launched in August 2004
– MDG sector needs assessment drafts ready by
November 2005
– Stakeholder workshop and consultations
– Macroeconomic framework and synthesis work with
support of World Bank
– Draft PASDEP ready by December 2005
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