Transcript Introduction to this meeting

CAWSES space weather meeting,
11-12 Sep 2004, Beijing
Introduction to this meeting
K. Shibata
Kwasan Observatory
Kyoto Unversity
contents
• What is CAWSES ?
(based on Dr. Basu’ppt
in Sapporo 2003
and in Paris 2004)
• Space weather research:
from solar physics point of view
(based on Shibata’s ppt in Sapporo 2003)
CAWSES: Climate and Weather of
the Sun-Earth System
Sunanda Basu
Chair, CAWSES Science Steering Committee
Presented by M. Geller
CAWSES Bureau and General Meeting
Sapporo, 12 and 13 July 2003
CAWSES
Climate and Weather of the
Sun-Earth System
The New SCOSTEP Program for
2004-2008
Composite picture created at NOAA-NGDC by Dr. Peter Sloss from SKYLAB solar X-ray telescope picture by Naval Research
Laboratory and bathymetry and topography databases archived at NGDC.
Strategy
• Collect data records to document with
increasing fidelity various aspects of the
Sun-Earth system.
• Use physically based models for
assimilating observed data and deriving
enhanced outputs for segments of the
solar-terrestrial system.
• Mobilize SCOSTEP researchers to work
together to understand variability
throughout the entire solar-terrestrial
system.
CAWSES Meetings - Past & Future
• First CAWSES SSG Meeting held at Maastricht,
The Netherlands on August 24-25, 2002
• Four themes approved by SCOSTEP Bureau at
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sept 28-30, 2002
• Theme leaders presented their plans at a Town
Hall Meeting on April 8, 2003 during the EGS/AGU
Joint Assembly in Nice, France
• A special CAWSES Meeting was held on July 5,
2003 in conjunction with the IUGG Meeting at
Sapporo, Japan
• Membership of the thematic groups was
considered at the Sapporo Meeting
• Election of new SCOSTEP Executives and
presentation of CAWSES Reports at Sapporo on
July 12 and 13.
Four Themes under CAWSES
Solar Influence on Climate
Space Weather: Science and
Applications
Atmospheric Coupling Processes
Climatology of the Sun-Earth
System
2. Space Weather: Science and Applications
Co-Chair- Janet Kozyra, U. of Michigan, USA
Co-Chair - K. Shibata, Kyoto University, Japan
Proposed campaign framework that views the “whole earth as
an instrument” for making key space weather observations.
CAWSES could:
• Recruit and coordinate needed observing sites
• Identify and collaborate with major programs worldwide
(Spaceship Earth, Intermagnet, GEDAS, CNOFS, etc.)
• Set up website and needed technology in collaboration
with other programs like ILWS, eGY, etc.
• Organize world-wide analysis campaigns on particular
themes or for selected events
(from NICE Mtg.)
2. Space Weather: Science and
Applications
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Impacts on space technology and operations
Effects on humans in space
Telecommunications interruptions
Vulnerability of Earth-surface systems
Navigation upsets
Effects on high-altitude aircraft passengers and crew
Model development through quantitative
understanding of multi-scale coupling in the SunEarth system
(from NICE Mtg.)
2. Space Weather: Science and Applications
Potential Worldwide Campaigns
• Predictive Models of the Space Environment
• Post event analysis to test predictive models
• Analysis of physical processes that occurred & reasons predictions
succeeded or failed
• Test research models against operational predictions
• Document Actual Effects on Life & Society for Events
• Power grid loading
• Satellite anomalies
• Communications problems
• Sun-to-Earth Analysis Campaigns for Selected Events
• Coordinate CAWSES worldwide maps with other satellite and groundbased data to create global view of events
• Coordinate efforts of worldwide research community to analyze and
interpret comprehensive data sets
• Apply new knowledge of complex system to understanding & predicting
space weather effects on society (from NICE Mtg)
2. Space Weather: Science &
Applications
Working Group Panel: Janet Kozyra (USA), Kazunari
Shibata (Japan) – Possible Members: Walter Gonzalez
(Brazil), Rainer Schwenn (Germany), A.A. Petrukovich
(Russia), Wei Feng Xi (China), R. Sridharan (India), Alain
Hilgers (Netherlands)
2.1 Solar Processes Producing Space Weather
2.2 Sun-Earth System Elements and Linkages that
determine the severity of space weather disturbances
Space Weather: Science & Applications
(cont.)
2.3 Space Weather Data Product Implementation
2.3(a) “One-Earth” data set analysis and integration
– Solar H-α (an initial effort) - TBD
– Magnetometers (an initial effort) - Ian Mann (Canada), Brian
Fraser (Australia), Valodya Papitashvili (USA), Kazuo
Shiokawa (210 chain Japan), INTERMAGNET, Russia?,
Denmark?, Mark Moldwin (USA)
– GPS ionospheric data - Tony Mannucci (USA), TBD
– Neutral winds, sprites and jets, and gravity waves
(collaboration with Theme-3)
2.3(b) "One-Earth" Information Technology
– (e.g. Virtual Observatory, GEDAS, SPIDR, ...)
Perspectives on CAWSES
• CAWSES is an ambitious program that builds on
and leverages the broad SCOSTEP programs
STEP and S-RAMP and more specialized PostSTEP programs.
• CAWSES is particularly timely.
• Successful implementation of CAWSES will
provide an integrated scientific framework for
solar-terrestrial research in the future, and
provide an informed basis for guiding later
programs under different solar conditions and
changing anthropogenic influences and as made
necessary by new human institutions and
technological advances.
CAWSES: Climate and Weather
of the Sun-Earth System
Sunanda Basu
Chair, Science Steering Committee,
CAWSES
CAWSES/SCOSTEP Meeting
Paris, France
July 16-17, 2004
SCOSTEP
SCOSTEP’s mission: to implement research programs in
solar-terrestrial physics that benefit from international
participation and that involve at least two ICSU bodies.
SCOSTEP Bureau
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President: M. A. Geller
Vice-president: S. T. Wu
Scientific Secretary: J. H. Allen
S. K. Avery (URSI)
W. Baumjohann (IAGA)
R. Fujii (COSPAR)
B. Schmieder (IAU)
F. W. Sluijter (IUPAP)
T. Tsuda (IAMAS)
M. Candidi (SCAR)
CAWSES
Scientific Steering Group
• Chair: Sunanda Basu, BU, USA
• Jean-Louis Bougeret, CNRS, France
• Joanna Haigh, Imperial College, UK
• Yohsuke Kamide, STEL, Japan
• Arthur Richmond, NCAR, USA
• C.-H. Liu, NCU, Taiwan
• Lev Zelenyi, IKI, Russia
• P. Duggirala, Scientific Coordinator
• L. Vercauteren, Program Admin.
Theme 1: Solar Influence on Climate
Co-Chairs: Michael Lockwood (UK) and Lesley Gray (UK)
WG 1.1: Assessment of Evidence for Solar Influence on Climate
Juerg Beer (Switzerland), William Russow (USA), Ilya Usoskin (Russia), Judith Lean
(USA), Gerard Thuillier (France), Gerry North (USA), Peter Stott (UK), Warren White
(USA), Lon Hood (USA), Karin Labitzke (Germany), Augusto Mangini (Germany)
WG 1.2: Investigation of Mechanisms for Solar Influence on Climate
Ulrich Cubasch (Germany), Gerry Meehl (USA), Kuni Kodera (Japan), R. Garcia (USA),
David Rind (USA), Mark Baldwin (USA), Charles Jackman (USA), Jon Kristjansson
(Norway) and Giles Harrison (UK)
Theme 2: Space Weather Science & Applications
Co-Chairs: Janet Kozyra (USA) and Kazunari Shibata (Japan)
Santimay Basu (USA), Walter Gonzalez (Brazil), Nat Gopalswamy (USA), A. T. Kobea
(Ivory Coast), Anatoly Petrukovich (Russia), Rainer Schwenn (Germany), Wei Feng Si
(China) and R. Sridharan (India)
Theme 3: Atmospheric Coupling Processes
Co-Chairs: Franz-Josef Luebken (Germany) and Joan Alexander (USA)
WG 3.1: Dynamical Coupling and its Role in the Energy and Momentum
Budget of the Middle Atmosphere
Martin Mlynczak (USA), William Ward (Canada), David Fritts (USA), Nikolai
Gavrilov (Russia), S. Gurubaran (India), Maura Hagan (USA), J. Y. Liu (Taiwan),
Alan Manson (Canada), Dora Pancheva (UK), Kauro Sato (Japan), Kazuo
Shiokawa (Japan), Hisao Takahashi (Brazil), Robert Vincent (Australia) and Yi Fan
(China)
WG 3.2: Coupling via Photochemical Effects on Particles and Minor
Constituents in the Upper Atmosphere
Charles Jackman (USA), Ulf Hoppe (Norway), Manuel Lopez-Puertas (Spain),
Daniel Marsh (USA), James Russell (USA), David Siskind (USA)
WG 3.3: Coupling by Electrodynamics including Ionospheric
Magnetospheric Processes
Steve Cummer (USA), Peter L. Dyson (Australia), Inez S. Batista (Brazil), Archana
Bhattacharya (India), Jorge Chau (Peru), Martin Fullekrug (Germany), Gang Lu
(USA), Roland Tsunoda (USA), and M. Yamamoto (Japan)
WG 3.4: Long-Term Trends in Coupling Processes (inter-connected with 4.4)
Theme 4: Space Climatology
Co-Chairs: Claus Froehlich (Switzerland) and Jan Sojka (USA)
WG 4.1: Solar Irradiance Variability
Judit Pap (USA) and Gerard Thuillier (France)
WG 4.2: Heliosphere Near Earth
Leif Svalgaard (USA)
WG 4.3: Radiation Belt Climatology
Takahiro Obara (Japan)
WG 4.4: Long-Term trends in Ionospheric and Upper-Atmospheric
Variability (inter-connected with 3.4)
M. Jarvis (UK) and John Emmert (USA)
2003 July 5 at Sapporo, IUGG
Space weather research:
from solar physics point of view
K. Shibata
Kwasan Observatory
Kyoto University
Contents
• Solar physics and space weather
– Science issue
• Future strategy
– Meeting
– International collaboration
• Ground-based observations
• Space observations
• Numerical simulations
Solar physics and space weather
• Traditionally, solar physicists have not
been interested in space weather. And, still
now.
• This is very bad.
• One of the important purposes of our
activity is to encourage closer
communication between solar physicists
and geophysicists.
Why solar physicists are not
interested in space weather ?
The “distance” between
the Sun and the Earth
became much shorter in
these 10 years
• Common physical proccesses began to be discussed
by two communities
– Magnetic reconnection
– Particle acceleration
– ….
• Observations of CME significantly developed so that
we can now discuss the Sun, solar wind,
magnetosphere, and atmospheric phenomena with
almost continuos data.
solar corona observed by Yohkoh
• Soft
X-ray
（~1 keV)
2MK-10MK
Magnetic reconnection
in solar flares
Magnetic reconnection in
the Earth’s tail
outer corona, solar wind, and CME
observed with SOHO/LASCO
Solar wind observations
(Kojima et al.)
From Jackson’s
homepage
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One good
exmaple
A giant arcade on April 14, １９９４
K. Shibata reported this arcade event
in Yokoh gbo email, suggesting
gigantic mass ejections
A. McAllister read the gbo email and
realized the possibility of a big
magnetospheric substorm, and
informed it to the electric power
company of Chicato
The company prepared by removing
big transformer (~ 5 - 10 M$)
Two days later, actually a big
substorm occurred, but the
transformer was safe !
The company thanked US
government,
US government thanked NASA,
NASA thanked Yohkoh team,
Yohkoh team thanked me.
Important subjects in solar physics
• Triggering and energy storage
mechanisms of solar flares and coronal
mass ejectons
• Coronal heating mechanism
• Solar wind acceleration mechanism
• Origin of magnetic field (dynamo)
• Origin of solar luminosity variation
all are important subjects for space
weather research
Future meetings
• ICSC (Gopalswamy)
• A session in 1st asia oceania geophysics
meeting at Singapore in 2004 (Shibata)
• Cospar
• IAU
• … many
proposal from the international Solar Cycle Studies (ISCS)
community by Gopalswamy
CAWSES Project: Theme 2: Space Weather: Science and Applications
Project title: Sources
of Geomagnetic Activity
• Main topics for investigation:
• 1. Solar sources: Coronal Mass Ejections,
Coronal Holes, Large-scale Magnetic
structures and boundaries, Polar magnetic
fields
• 2. Structure of the Heliosphere and
interplanetary transport of solar eruptions
• 3. Solar energetic ions and electrons
• 4. Geospace Response to solar events
Sources of Geomagnetic Activity (continued)
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Project team (to be completed):
------------------------------N. Gopalswamy (USA, Chair)
B. V. Jackson (USA)
V. Obridko (Russia)
A. Prigancova (Slovakia)
B. Schmieder (France)
K. Shibasaki (Japan)
D. Webb (USA, IAU Rep.)
S. T. Wu (USA)
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Proposed schedule:
----------------Small meeting in 2004
Large meeting in 2005 (during the SCOSTEP Symposium)
Proposal for Scientific Sessions of the
First ASIA-OCEANIA
GEOPHYSICAL SOCIETY Annual Meeting,
July 5-9, 2004,
• title: Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections
• Organizer
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K. Shibata
S. T. Wu
B. C. Low
C. Fang
International collaboration project
on ground-based observations #1
• To put small H-alpha telescopes (H-alpha
center, +- 0.8A) at Japan, China, India,
Europe, USA to enable continuous full-Sun
observations of mass motion associated
with flares and CMEs.
0.3 - 2 M$
HαObservations
Flare Monitoring Telescope
（ＦＭＴ）(Hida Obs., Kyoto Univ.)
Full Sun Hα、Hα±0.8Å,
continuum image
64mm aperture
On video (2sec cadence) and
CD-ROM(1min)
with 4.2 arcsec pixel
Images of flares and prominence eruptions
are now open through
http://www.kwasan.kyoto-u.ac.jp/Hida/FMT/
H α+ 0.8 A
Moreton waves
Hαcenter
flare associated waves observed
in Hα (Moreton 1960)
chromospheric manifestation of
fast mode MHD shocks in the
corona (Uchida 1968)
Hα+0.8A,-0.8A
International collaboration project
on ground-based observations #2
• To put vector magnetograph telescopes at
Japan, China, India, Europe, USA to enable
continuous full-Sun observations of photospherc
vector magnetic field.
• => now constructing 20cm-25cm full Sun vector
magnetograph telescope at Hida observatory of
Kyoto Unversity.
< 4M$
New ground-based telescope: SMART
(Hida Observatory of Kyoto University, 2003 - )
observing full Sun Halpha and vector magnetic
fields every 1 minutes
consisting of 4 (two 25 cm and two 20 cm) telescopes
SMART (solar magnetic
activity research telescope)
H alpha image
Vector magnetic field
Solar-B Mission
Japan-US-UK collaboration 2006• Solar Optical Telescope (SOT)
• X-Ray Telescope (XRT)
• EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS)
• Science objectives
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coronal heating
coronal dynamics and structure
elementary processes such as reconnection
emerging flux and dynamo
Other space missions
Numerical simulation projects
• International collaboration on development of useful
MHD/hybrid/particle code and visualization software
now we are developing
CANS (Coordinated Astronomical
Numerical Simulation code;
by Matsumoto, Yokoyama, et al. )
• International school for (space weather) simulation
now domestic astro-MHD simulation
summer school
(2002 September – every year)
• 7th International Space Simulation School
ISSS7 at Kyoto, 2005 Mar. 26-31
Futue space weather meetings
• In Japan
– 2004 Nov. 24-26 space weather meeting
at Hamamatsu (with Kozyra)
– 2005 Apr. 4-6 CAWSES meeting
at Tokyo (with Akasofu and many
foreigners)
• In Europe
– 2005 July 18-25 IAGA/IUGG at France
Electronic Proceedings
• We will make electronic proceeding
including ppt files
• If you agree, please send your ppt file to
me.
• Thank you.