Transcript Slide 1

Modeling and Measuring the Process of
Watershed Change, and Implications for
Fisheries
Karin E. Limburg
SUNY College of Environmental Science & Forestry
Supported by the Hudson River Foundation and National Science Foundation
Modeling and Measuring the Process and
Consequences of Land Use Change
Jon Erickson, Caroline Hermans
University of Vermont
John Gowdy, Audra Nowosielski, John Polimeni
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Karin Limburg, Karen Stainbrook, Bongghi Hong
SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry
Collaborators:
David Burns
Dutchess County Environmental Management Council
Eileen Sassman
Wappinger Creek Watershed Intermunicipal Council
The two paradigms…
The natural
landscape
(watershed)
perspective vs the
socio-economic
perspective…
Separate, but in
need of linkage!
Bill Odum
applied this
to ecological
systems
Economist
Alfred Kahn
“The Tyranny of Small Decisions”
“Connecting the dots”: linking economy,
land use, and ecological effects
Biophysical
Land Use
Society
Community
Economy
Business
HouseH
Individuals
Economic
Structure and Change
Land-Use and
Demographic Change
Watershed Health
Research Questions
• How does human activity create the demand for
land use change?
• How does this demand change the spatial pattern
of land use?
• How does land use change affect ecosystem
health?
 What does all this mean for coastal fisheries?
The Hudson River
Watershed – site of
case study
Hudson River estuary
Geographic Setting
Dutchess County, NY
3 assessment approaches, followed by integrative model
a) Model the economy
with a Social
Accounting Matrix
GOVERMENT
County-Wide Stakeholder Workshop:
•
•
•
•
Semi-Conductor Industry
Suburbanization
Loss of agriculture
Commuting (↑ traffic)
OUTSIDE
WORLD
HOUSEHOLDS
Public Private Goods
Services
& Services
Consumption
Goods
Labor
Exports
Imports
Depreciation
INDUSTRY
CAPITAL
Investment
Dutchess County
Semiconductor and related
devices industry
#1 in Value-Added
#2 in Employment
b) Land use and
demographic change
Quantifying Past & Present
Condition
- Satellite maps, followed by…
Quantifying past &
present condition,
continued
- Ortho-rectified photos
- Land use interpretation
- Tax parcel maps
-Developed land use
change model
c) Ecosystem health (and watershed
health)
 maintenance of biotic integrity, resistance
and/or resilience to change in the face of
anthropogenic disturbance (Rapport, 1992)
includes
 physical and chemical environmental
quality (e.g., stream temperature, conductivity,
and element concentration),
 biotic condition (e.g., status of fish and
macroinvertebrate communities)
Assessing watershed health:
The idea: organisms and
ecosystems integrate and reflect
the insults (or lack thereof)
resulting from watershed-level
processes
Some techniques have proven
robust after 25+ years of testing;
others in development
Indicators of ecosystem health can
(should?) evaluate changes at levels of
•Ecological population
•Community/habitat
•Whole-system
Metrics may not all be additive,
although many schemes designed
that way
What we
looked at:
• physical habitat
characterizations
• water chemistry
• biotic community
structure (fish and
macro-invertebrates)
• ecosystem function
Some results: how “healthy” are the Wappinger and
Fishkill Creek watersheds?
(Fishkill is closer to NY City, more urbanized…)
Let’s look at a few diagnostics…
Land use patterns
Environmental quality patterns
Biological indicators
…includes changes over time
Assessments at different spatial scales
(relates to the degree of influence)
60.0
LOCAL
Fishkill
50.0
Wappingers
40.0
30.0
Percent
20.0
10.0
0.0
60.0
INTEGRATED
50.0
Fishkill
Wappingers
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Forested
Agricultural
Developed
Other
Amount of
land in
different uses
varied at
different
spatial scales
Impervious surface
14.0
Fishkill
Wappingers
Percent impervious surface
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Local
Sub-basin
Spatial scale
Integrated
Water quality – an example
Conductivity – a
measure of the ionic
strength of water
Hudson Valley, New York
60
Wappinger Creek
Chloride Concentration (mg/L)
50
Correlates strongly with
human disturbance
(population density,
road density, nitrates,
etc.)
40
30
20
Getting recognition as
a bellwether of aquatic
disturbance
10
0
F-82 O-83 J-85 J-87 S-88 M-90 D-91 A-93 A-95 D-96 J-98 M-00 N-01 J-03 F-05
Date
Biotic responses
Fish Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI)
Use fish community characteristics to assess
aquatic health – composed of 12 metrics,
including
• Species richness & abundance
• Indicator species (of degradation, e.g.)
• Functional role ID
• Condition and health indices
IBIs originally worked out for Ohio streams
– but are gaining popularity worldwide now
However, have to be regionally calibrated
We tested the relatively new northern MidAtlantic IBI (Daniels et al. 2002. Trans.
Amer. Fish. Soc. 131: 1044-1060)
or
or
3
llen
t
c.
d/ E
x
d
4
Ex
ce
Go
o
d
8
Go
o
/G
oo
Fa
ir
Fa
ir
Po
or/
Fa
ir
Po
Po
2001
Number of sites
1936
ry
nt
Fishkill
Ve
elle
c.
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
od
/E x
od
d
Po
or
Po
or
Go
od
/Ex
c.
Ex
cel
len
t
Go
od
/G
oo
d
Fa
ir
Fa
ir
Po
o r/
Fa
ir
Ve
ry
IBIs over time…
Ex
c
Go
Go
oo
Fa
ir
r /F
air
r
r
Po
o
Po
o
Fa
i r/G
Po
o
Ve
ry
Number of sites
Number of sites
Similar results w/
macroinvertebrate
analyses
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Fishkill
Wappinger
10
9
Wappinger
7
6
5
1936
2
2001
1
0
Stable Isotope Analysis.
A big field of research in everything from
meteorology to archaeology, geology to food
science, ecology to physiology
Basically a way to trace how elements move from
one compound to another, or from one chemical
state to another
In ecology, we often use Carbon and Nitrogen
stable isotope ratios as tracers of matter in food
webs – and can also be used to trace migrating
animals – and things like pollution…
Less urbanized
More urbanized
Stable isotope analysis of a
“sentinel species” blacknose
dace
Evidence of any
threshold effects?
less urban
more urban
Integrating through models
Social Accounting Matrix
(Input-output Model)
Binary Logit
Regression Model
Multiple Linear
Regression Model
Nowosielski (2002)
Polimeni (2002)
Stainbrook (2004)
Simulation Result from Socio-economic Sub-model:
2292 new jobs (1000 direct + 1292 indirect)
expected number of new jobs
Land Use Change Sub-model
124,549 “Tax Parcels” within Dutchess County
Properties of Tax Parcels
Reclassified: Residential vs Vacant
Input Spatial Dataset
(Independent Variables for Binary Logit Model)
Change in
Population
Change in
Income
Total
Assessment
Value
Distance to Central
Business District
Neighborhood
Index
Possible Restriction to Development
Hydric Soils
Wetlands
Steep Area
Protected Lands
Minimum Lot Size
Requirement
Predicted Conversion of Vacant Lands to Residential Use
in Response to Economic Impact (%)
Expected Change in Land Use due to Economic Impact
NAWQA (National Water Quality Assessment) Dataset:
Correlation with Percent Urban Land Use
correlation coefficient
Result from Ecosystem Health Sub-model:
Reduced Stream Water Quality and Species Diversity
We are able to track the effects of
economic activity in the watershed…but
what does this mean for coastal
fisheries?
It’s a matter of scale…
Mississippi R. watershed and
“The Dead Zone”
Image sources: NOAA and Virginia Inst. of Marine Science
Chesapeake Bay
Hypoxia increasing
Total Reactive N (Teragrams)
Cumulative systems reporting hypoxia
Fish & Fisheries declines
200
150
Nitrogen
100
50
Hypoxia
0
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Diaz, et al. 2004
ANNUAL FISHERY
LANDING, Kg Ha-1
System-wide effects?
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
Nixon 2002
100
200
300
400
500
hypoxia
Eutrophication severity
Caddy 1993
Pelagic:demersal ratio
Fisheries landings
PRIMARY PRODUCTION, g C m-2 y-1
Eutrophication severity (chl)
Caddy 2000, de Leiva Moreno 2000
Dams Over Time*
1850
1900
1950
2000
*not including dams missing dates
Data from BASINS software
Is a new paradigm needed?
We (all of us!) need a new way of VALUING
the environment.
Not just the $$$...
Connecting the dots…de rode draad
Evaluate ecosystem services…
Evaluate the trade-offs…
Thank you!