Transcript Economic and Market Analysis

Science, Research and Development
Economic and Market
Analysis
Mike Birks
ETSU
4/27/2020 - 1
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
European Community
• Consumption of electricity in 1996
- 2,253 TWh
• Growth to 2010 - 2,811 TWh
(1.6%)
• 1996 system loss estimated to be
146 TWh or 6.5%
• Loss significant slightly more than
demand for Sweden 142 TWh
4/27/2020 - 2
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
Modelling the European
Electricity System
• Use the simple model developed
by ETSU for the UK
4/27/2020 - 3
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
European Commission
Transmission System Power
Losses
Year
1995/6
1996/7
1997/8
1998/9
1999/0
2000/1
2001/2
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Transmission
heating
losses
Grid Supply
trans former
heating
losses
Fixed
losses
Total
losses
Average
Cold Spell
Peak
Demand
Total
Losses
MW
540
625
675
850
985
970
980
MW
95
100
105
105
105
115
115
MW
180
180
180
180
180
180
180
MW
815
905
960
1,135
1,270
1,265
1,275
GW
49.4
50.0
50.8
51.7
52.6
53.3
54.0
%
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Science, Research and Development
How much of system loss can
be attributed to
transformers?
4/27/2020 - 5
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
UK Distribution System
Losses
T y p e o f L o ss
D istr ib u tio n S y ste m L o sse s %
132kV - 33kV
tr a n sfo r m e r
lo sse s
33kV - 11 kV
tr a n sfo r m e r
lo sse s
11kV - 414 V
tr a n sfo r m e r
lo sse s
T o ta l tr a n sfo r m e r
lo sse s
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C om pany
A
9
C om pany
B
10
C om pany
C
10
12
11
9
25
24
20
A verage
46
45
39
43
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
Distribution System Losses
•
•
•
•
•
4/27/2020 - 7
Line loss
Transformer loss
Services
Theft?
UK - 17.8 TWh (5.7 %)
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
European Commission
Loss on European Distribution
System Due to Transformers
• 43% for transformers - as UK
• 116 TWh
• 2% of all electricity distributed.
4/27/2020 - 8
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Science, Research and Development
Transformer Replacement
• In Europe 150,000 unit sales per
year
• Replacement rate 3.75% per year
• Transformer life - 40 Years
• For model assume A-A’ as
‘base case’
4/27/2020 - 9
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
European Commission
Improvement in Energy
Efficiency
Base Case
Transformer
Rating
1600kVA
400kVA
100kVA
4/27/2020 - 10
Efficiency Improvement %
Over Base Case
A-A’
C-C’
A-AMDT
C-AMDT
98.51
98.04
94.71
33.0
30.7
29.2
65.0
39.1
26.9
70.5
48.8
39.6
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Science, Research and Development
Contribution Towards Total
Loss
Transformer Rating
1600 kVA
400 kVA
100 kVA
Total
4/27/2020 - 11
Contribution Toward Energy Loss
%
10
45
45
100
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
Savings Potential
20.00
Potential Savings (TWh)
18.00
C-C
A-AMDT
C-AMDT
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Time
4/27/2020 - 12
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
2025
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
Savings Potential
• Up to 17.95 TWh/year
• Worth 942 million Euro (1999
prices)
• Equivalent to 26% reduction in
transformer loss and 11% saving
of all losses on European
distribution system.
4/27/2020 - 13
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
Payback Period
• C-C’ - 1.4 to 2.5 years
• A-AMDT - 8.7 to 11.7 years
• C-AMDT -8.7 to 9.1
4/27/2020 - 14
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
Emissions Savings
• Based on IIEC emissions figures
for Europe of 0.4 Kg CO2/kWh
• C-C’ minimum standard would
provide savings of 6TWh by 2010
• Equivalent to 2.4 Mt CO2
• Or 1% of the European
commitment agreed at Kyoto
4/27/2020 - 15
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
European Commission
Electricity Use by Customer
Customer
Market
Industrial
Domestic
Commercial,
public
administration
and
miscellaneous
Transport
Agriculture
Total
4/27/2020 - 16
Number of
customers
(000's)
% of
Total
258
23,935
1,789
0.98
91.28
6.82
89,786
100,644
83,514
31.56
35.38
29.36
Average elec.
consumption
for each
customer
(MW h/a)
348.00
4.20
46.68
36
202
26,220
0.13
0.77
6,566
3,929
284,439
2.31
1.38
182.38
19.45
Sales of
electricity
(GW h)
% of
Total
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Science, Research and Development
Savings Equivalent to
• Annual energy use of
4.27 million homes
4/27/2020 - 17
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
Market Characterisation
Utility’s
• Responsible view toward energy
efficiency.
• In fully liberalised market amount
of investment determined by
allowance provided by Regulator
• In some cases move toward
increased environmental
awareness
4/27/2020 - 18
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
Non-Utility Market
• Major energy users
• Large Users
• Small
4/27/2020 - 19
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
National/International Policy
• World Standard IEC 76
• Harmonisation Document 428
• National Standards
4/27/2020 - 20
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
National/International Policy
continued
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•
•
4/27/2020 - 21
Electricity cost to customer
Voltage tolerances
Safety
Noise
Overall environmental impact of
the system
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission
Science, Research and Development
Mechanisms for Change
•
•
•
•
•
•
4/27/2020 - 22
No change
Enforceable minimum standards
Financial incentives
Labelling system
Buyer Clubs
Specification tool kit
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
European Commission