Transcript Document

Wood Stove Market Impacts
Including Efficiency and Emissions Standards
Hearth, Patio & Barbecue Association
Prepared and Presented by:
Robert Ferguson
Ferguson, Andors & Company
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Wood Stove Market Factors
• The wood stove market is driven by many factors.
– The influence of these factors is not the same for
every potential purchaser or for every locale.
• Some of those factors:
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
• Increasing Conventional Energy
Costs
• Self-Sufficiency Motivation
• Firewood Availability and Cost
• Tax (or Other) Incentives
• Capital Outlay/Investment
Payback (ROI)
• Efficiency/Emissions Performance
• Aesthetics
• Lower (or Stable) Conventional
Energy Costs
• Inconvenience and Extra Work
• Firewood Availability and Cost
• Capital Outlay and Investment
Payback (ROI)
• Safety Concerns
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Wood Stove Efficiency
• IRS Tax Credit
– In 2009, IRS approved a tax credit program that
included biomass heating equipment as long as
minimum efficiency requirements were met.
– Both HPBA and EPA worked to get a standard
efficiency determination protocol included as part
of the IRS program.
• This effort was unsuccessful other than getting
clarification that the Lower Heating Value of the fuel
could be used for determining efficiency.
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Basics of HHV v. LHV
• HHV (Higher Heating Value) assumes that the water vapor
produced when the solid fuel is burned can condense and therefore
the heat released if that occurs is treated as “available” heat as part
of the total heat input from the fuel.
• LHV (Lower Heating Value) assumes that the water vapor produced
when the solid fuel is burned will never be allowed to condense,
and therefore, that potential heat recovery shouldn’t be counted as
part of the heat input from the fuel.
• Since efficiency is heat output divided by heat input, using LHV
(smaller denominator) results in higher efficiency values.
• LHV is generally used in Europe for solid-fuel fired heaters.
• HHV is the general norm for rating all heating equipment in North
America and allows direct comparison of efficiency of heaters
burning different fuel types (gas, oil or wood).
• Since there are already condensing designs for gas and oil, and
there is always the possibility of someone inventing a condensing
system for solid fuel, HHV is the better way to rate ALL heaters.
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How did this affect the IRS values?
• IRS allowed self-certification by manufacturers
including using previously available efficiency data.
• The standard practice adopted by manufacturers in the
absence of IRS guidance was to base the efficiency
value on a single heat output category rather than the
weighted average over the full operating range of the
stove.
• In combination with the LHV, this resulted in “IRS”
efficiency values that can be significantly higher when
compared to the weighted average HHV efficiency.
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Wood Stove Efficiency
• HPBA supports the determination of the average
overall efficiency using a standardized weighted
average HHV efficiency test method (CSA B415.1-10) so
the playing field is level for everyone.
• HPBA also supports determining the precision of the
efficiency test method.
• Standardized efficiency values (including precision)
should be disclosed to the buying public to aid their
purchasing decision.
– on hang tags
– in advertising materials
• Marketplace pressures will ultimately drive
manufacturers to improve efficiency levels for their
lower performing models.
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Wood Stove PM Emissions
• EPA Wood Stove Particulate Emissions are
determined using a laboratory test procedure
that consists of burning Douglas fir fuel cribs
in at least four test runs that span the
operating range of the stove.
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• The EPA test methods have limitations and a
comprehensive evaluation of the precision1 of the
EPA test methods has shown that they cannot
reliably distinguish emissions performance
differences of less than 3 grams per hour.
• This means that EPA test methods are certainly
capable of reliably distinguishing between good and
bad performance, but they cannot reliably
distinguish between “good, better and best”
performance.
1
“EPA Wood Heater Test Method Variability Study - Analysis of Uncertainty, Repeatability and Reproducibility based on
the EPA Accredited Laboratory Proficiency Test Database”, R. Curkeet and R. Ferguson. Submitted to EPA on October 6,
2010. The report is available upon request. The report was also summarized in Hearth and Home Magazine, March 2011
Issue.
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• The emission test results from the EPA
laboratory-based test methods are also not a
reliable predictor of in-home PM emission
performance2.
• In-home PM performance is generally higher
and stove rankings can change.
– A stove with a higher EPA emission certification
rating may perform better in the field than a stove
with a lower EPA number.
2 “A Comparison of Particulate Emission Rates from the In-Home Use of Certified Wood Stove Models with U.S.
EPA
Certification Emission Values and A Comparison between In-Home Uncertified and Certified Wood Stove Particulate
Emissions”, Dr. James Houck, February 2012
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• Tightening performance standards will have
definite impacts:
– Stove prices will increase due to re-design costs,
certification costs, cost impacts in manufacturing,
and marketing and sales costs as well as the actual
material cost increases for each stove produced to name some of the elements.
• In the simplest terms, when stove prices
increase, stove demand decreases.
– Each 1% increase in retail price results in 1.6%
fewer sales.
– Impacts on replacement stoves may be even
greater.
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8% Decrease in
Sales Volume
5% Increase in
Retail Price
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EPA Certified Wood Heater Historical Sales Data,
1987 - 2010, and Projections through 2017
180,000
EPA NSPS Phase 2
Estimated & Projection
Freestanding Stoves
plus Fireplace Inserts
160,000
140,000
Linear Fit & Projection
Freestanding Stoves Only
Units Sold
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
Sources
1. The Fraction of Freestanding Wood-Fueled Stoves in Current Use
That are U.S. EPA Certified Cordwood Stoves and Wood Pellet Stoves
James E. Houck, Ph.D., July 23, 2011
2. Estimated Fireplace Insert Sales as an Average Percentage of Total
Certifed Stove Sales 1999-2010, Hearth, Patio & Barbecue Association
40,000
20,000
0
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Historical Data - Freestanding Only
2008
2011
2014
2017
Year
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• Current trends show a modest 1% average
increase in sales volume without added costs
due to new regulation.
• With new or tighter regulations, that trend is
likely to reverse -- with fewer sales than today.
• For PM emissions, lowering the passing grade
will produce only the appearance of progress–
nothing more.
• It will slow the rate of change-outs, by increasing
the cost of new stoves and reducing the number
of models available to consumers.
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2010 National Particulate Emissions by
Freestanding Stove Category
All Pellet: 1,445
Tons, 1%
Certified Cat:
5,016 Tons, 3%
6 Million +
Stoves - 86% of
Total PM
Certified NonCat: 15,188
Tons, 10%
Conventional
135,420 Tons,
86%
~3.3 Million
Stoves – 14%
of Total PM
Total PM Emissions –
2010: 157,069 Tons
Source: The Fraction of Freestanding Wood-Fueled Stoves in Current Use That are U.S. EPA
Certified Cordwood Stoves and Wood Pellet Stoves, Dr. James Houck, July 2011
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Conclusions
• Wood stove demand is volatile, can have regional
differences and is influenced by many factors.
• Economic Factors are Primary Drivers for Consumers
– Conventional Heating Costs
– Availability and Cost of Firewood
– Capital Investment and Payback (ROI)
• Tightening standards is a meaningless numbers game
-- nothing more. It will however, drive up stove
prices and reduce demand.
– This reduces change-outs as consumers opt to keep
their old stoves. Pre-certification era stove models
produce the vast majority of PM from residential
wood combustion.
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