Transcript Slide 1

The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Mapping of Future Technology Themes
in Sustainable Energy
Hai-chen Lin, Cheng-hua Ien and Te-ye Chan
Science & Technology Policy Research and Information Center(STPI)
National Applied Research Laboratories(NARL)
Taiwan, ROC
Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
1. Introduction
-Low carbon society and sustainable energy is one of the
grand challenges to humankind and attracts great international
attention.
-The compound annual growth rate of CO2 emission during
1999-2006 in Taiwan is 4.53%, higher than the domestic
economic growth rate, and the energy productivity of Taiwan
was about 50% lower than the EU
-many sustainable issues like sustainable energy get more
attention by the society and the government.
-In addition, searching for niches within world-wide technology
trends of sustainable energy where Taiwan could design an
appropriate strategy and get a special opportunity to a leading
position in the mid- to long- term becomes a main task.
-strategic intelligence scanning for use as background
information in the foresight/policy making process becomes an
important task
Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
1. Introduction
(Source:www.moeaboe.gov.tw)
Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
1. Introduction
(Source:www.moeaboe.gov.tw)
The dependency of the energy imports of Taiwan is
almost 99%, highly depends on energy resource such as
coal with high carbon emission.
Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
1. Introduction
(Source:www.moeaboe.gov.tw)
Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
2. Methodology
-Procedures
Procedure
Step 1
Description
Collect Delphi themes from foresight reports of Japan,
South Korea and China
Step 2
Select themes related to sustainable energy based on the
original category in the foresight reports and confirmed by
domain experts
Identify the technology/product keywords or terms in each
Delphi topics through text analysis
Step 3
Step 4
Step 5
Map the corresponding IPC codes(main-group level or
above) for these technology/product related terms in each
of the analysed Delphi topics
Distinguish with the identified IPC codes as the source
technology or application
Step 6
Transform these IPC codes to World Intellectual Property
Organization (WIPO) technology classification based on
WIPO IPC-Technology Concordance Table
Step 7
Map the technology distribution/interconnection by WIPO
technology classification and demonstrate by matrix or
Social Network Analysis
Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
2. Methodology
-Scanned Foresight Reports
Scanned Country
Japan
South Korea
China
Report Title
The 8th Science and Technology
Foresight Survey
Delphi Analysis
Prospect of future society &
future technology of Koreachallenges and opportunities
(Korea 2030)
China’s Report of Technology
Foresight 2004
Report Year
Project Promoter / Initiator
2005
Ministry of Education, Culture,
Sports, Science and Technology,
Japan
2005
The Ministry of Science and
Technology of the Republic of
Korea
2004
Ministry of Science and
Technology
Agency or Organization
Responsible for the Foresight
Activity
Science and Technology
Foresight Center, National
Institute of Science and
Technology Policy
(NISTEP)
Foresight and Strategy Planning
Team, Korean Institute of S&T
Evaluation and Planning
(KISTEP)
Technology Foresight Research
Team, National Research
Center for Science and
Technology for Development
Time horizon
Original category
2035
Energy and Resources
2030
Energy and the Environment
2020
Energy
Participation
202 experts
390 experts
177 experts
35
76
83
The Science and Technology
Policy Research Institute(STEPI)
(Delphi Second Round)
Number of Delphi Topics
related to Sustainable Energy
Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
2. Methodology
-Delphi Themes Selection up to Year 2020
Time
Horizon
Before 2020
2021-2030
After 2031
Topics
Ratio
Topics
Ratio
Topics
Ratio
Japan
26
74.3%
6
17.1%
3
8.6%
South
Korea
75
98.7%
1
1.3%
0
0%
China
83
100%
0
0%
0
0%
Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
2. Methodology
-WIPO Technology Classification System
No.
1
Field
No.
Field
19
Basic materials chemistry
2
3
4
Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy
Audio-visual technology
Telecommunications
Digital communication
20
21
22
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Basic communication processes
Computer technology
IT methods for management
Semiconductors
Optics
Measurement
Analysis of biological materials
Control
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
13
14
15
16
17
Medical technology
Organic fine chemistry
Biotechnology
Pharmaceuticals
Macromolecular chemistry,
polymers
Food chemistry
31
32
33
34
35
Materials, metallurgy
Surface technology, coating
Micro-structure and nanotechnology
Chemical engineering
Environmental technology
Handling
Machine tools
Engines, pumps, turbines
Textile and paper machines
Other special machines
Thermal processes and
apparatus
Mechanical elements
Transport
Furniture, games
Other consumer goods
Civil engineering
18
(Schmoch, 2008)
Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
2. Methodology
-Example of WIPO IPC-Technology Concordance Table
WIPO Technology Field
IPC codes
1. Electrical machinery,
apparatus, energy
F21#, H01B, H01C, H01F, H01G, H01H, H01J, H01K, H01M,
H01R, H01T, H02#, H05B, H05C, H05F, H99Z
17. Macromolecular
chemistry, polymers
C08B, C08C, C08F, C08G, C08H, C08K, C08L
Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
2. Methodology
-Example of Delphi Theme Mapping
Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
3. Results
-Union of Linkages of Technology among Three Foresight Reports
Application
Source
1.Electrical machinery,
apparatus, energy
7.IT methods for
management
12.Control
1.Electric
30.Therm
al
6.Comput
13.Medic
20.Materi 21.Surfac 23.Chemi 24.Enviro
3.Teleco
14.Organi 19.Basic
27.Engine al
31.Mecha
34. Other 35.Civil
machiner
er
8.Semico 10.Measu al
als,
e
cal
nmental 26.Machi
32.Transp
mmunicat
c fine
materials
s, pumps, processes nical
consumer engineeri
y,
technolog nductors rement technolog
metallurg technolog engineeri technolog ne tools
ort
ions
chemistry chemistry
turbines and
elements
goods
ng
apparatus,
y
y
y
y, coating ng
y
apparatus
energy
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16.Pharmaceuticals
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17.Macromolecular
chemistry, polymers
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19.Basic materials chemistry
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20.Materials, metallurgy
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22.Micro-structure and
nano-technology
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23.Chemical engineering
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24.Environmental
technology
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25.Handling
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27.Engines, pumps, turbines
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30.Thermal processes and
apparatus
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31.Mechanical elements
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32.Transport
35.Civil engineering
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14.Organic fine chemistry
15.Biotechnology
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Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
3. Results
-Linkages Identified for Each Country
KR
JP
CN
Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
3. Results
-Linkages Identified for top 25% Important Delphi Themes
in Each Country
KR
JP
CN
Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy
4. Conclusions
• According to the mapping experience in our research, a horizon
scanning for future technology themes can be easily conducted and
analyzed through a standard patent classification system. It may help
to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis
of foresight studies from different countries/regions during the
foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification
framework, and the mapping results can be easily aggregated and
demonstrated in a holistic view.
• Also, after identification of a number of future technology trends, this
classification system further provides the linkage of comparison with
current technology strengths like patent productivity.
•However, solutions which related to system innovation may not be
categorized by such IPC system and should be processed separately.