Transcript Document
Overpopulation
Estimates of Most Populous Countries in 2025
Twelve most popul ous countries in 2025 (estimated popul ations in milli ons) Country 1950 1995 2025 Ratio* Indi a
358 976 1533 4.3
China Pakistan United States Nigeria Indonesia
555 39 159 33 80 1255 148 274 122 207 1516 357 347 338 318 2.7
9.2
2.2
10.2
4.0
Brazil Bangladesh Ethiopia Iran
54 42 18 17 165 124 62 73 243 218 212 170 4.5
5.2
11.8
10.0
Mexico Russia
28 102 96 147 154 114 5.5
1.1
_______________________________________________________________________ Source : Data fro m Wor ld Resource s 1996-97, Wor ld Resource s Institute.
*Ratio 2025 to 1950 Ratio* = 2025:1950
Regional Population Distribution for People Under Age 15
Fertility Rates USA
The Demographics of Life
USA Source www.populationconnection.org/Communications/demfacts.
284.5 million Population, Mid 2001
World
6.1 billion 77 Population per square mile 118 15 Births per 1,000 people 22 9 Deaths per 1,000 people 2.1 Total fertility rate 21 % of pop under age 15 13 % of pop over age 65 9 2.8
30 7
The Demographics of Life
USA World
49 Births per 1,000 women aged 15-19 7.1 Infant deaths per 1,000 live births $29,240 GNP per capita (PPP) 50 56 $6,300 995 kCal Avg daily per capita calories from animal products 441 kCal 66 Grains fed to livestock as % total grain consumption 3
The Demographics of Life
USA World
19,674 kg Annual per capita carbon emissions 4,157 kg 5 % energy consumption from renewable sources 14 1 % female labor force in agriculture 4 % male labor force in agriculture 1,484 Tractor per 1,000 agricultural workers 52 46 20
Estimates of Most Populous Countries in 2025
Twelve most popul ous countries in 2025 (estimated popul ations in milli ons) Country 1950 1995 2025 Ratio* Indi a
358 976 1533 4.3
China Pakistan United States Nigeria Indonesia
555 39 159 33 80 1255 148 274 122 207 1516 357 347 338 318 2.7
9.2
2.2
10.2
4.0
Brazil Bangladesh Ethiopia Iran
54 42 18 17 165 124 62 73 243 218 212 170 4.5
5.2
11.8
10.0
Mexico Russia
28 102 96 147 154 114 5.5
1.1
_______________________________________________________________________ Source : Data fro m Wor ld Resource s 1996-97, Wor ld Resource s Institute.
*Ratio 2025 to 1950 Ratio* = 2025:1950
World Population
While demographic transition is occurring in many places, the world population keeps increasing at a rate of about 1.5% to 2% per year.
Doubli ng times at various compound interest rates Annu al % Increase Doubli ng Time (years) 0.1
0.5
1.0
2.0
700 140 70 35 5.0
7.5
10.0
100.0
14 9 7 0.7
So the doubling rate is between 35 and 46 years!
World Population Growth
What will this mean for the planet?
Will we alter the human carrying capacity by our impact? What
can
we do to help stabilize the world’s population? What
should
we do?
Consumption Comparisons
One quarter of the global population living in developed countries consumes for 80% of the world’s total energy. USA alone accounts for 6% of the global population , but consumes 30% of its resources. 20% of the global population consumes 70% of its material resources and possesses 80% of the wealth. The majority of this 20% in centered in Canada, USA, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Japan.
Consumption Comparisons
A child born today in the United States will by the age of 75 years produce 52 tons of garbage, consume 10 million gallons of water and use 5 times the energy of a child born in the developing world. The United States uses approximately one quarter of the world's fossil fuels and is the largest contributor of carbon dioxide, undesirable combustion products, and chlorofluorocarbons, chemicals that contribute to greenhouse warming and attack the Earth's ozone shield.
Consumption Comparisons
Increasing the fuel mileage of cars by just 3 mpg would save the same amount of oil that could be tapped from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge over 10 years.
Every 20 minutes, the world adds another 3,500 human lives but loses one or more entire species of animal or plant life - at least 27,000 species per year. Population is growing faster than food supplies in 64 of 105 developing countries. Overcultivation, primarily due to population pressures, has degraded some 2 billion hectares of arable land - an area the size of Canada and the United States combined
Consumption Comparisons
Globally, the demand for fresh water exceeds the supply by 17 percent already. Two-thirds of the world's population will experience some form of a severe water shortage in the next 25 years.
By 2025, when world population is projected to reach 8 billion, 48 countries with a total population of 3 billion will face chronic water shortages. In 25 years, humankind could be using over 90 percent of all available freshwater, leaving just 10 percent for the rest of the world's plants and animals.
What is the Carry Capacity of the Planet for Humans?
Paul Erlich – Population Bomb, 1968 – predicted 2 billion. Now at 6 billion.
Julian Simon – there is no problem, more people means more potential technology solutions.
Some estimate 20 billion will be maximum (at this rate, in your lifetime!!!) Solution = balance of population controls and consumption controls.