Transcript Diapositiva 1

Development of a LAM-EPS system for Sochi2014 Winter Olympics
Andrea Montani
C. Marsigli, T. Paccagnella
ARPA-SIMC
HydroMeteoClimate Regional Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy
XIII COSMO meeting
Rome (I), 5-8 September 2011
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Introduction
•
After Athens (Summer 2004) and Turin (Winter 2006), for the third time in a
decade the Olympic Games being hosted by a COSMO-country.
•
Next Olympics and Paralympics Winter Games will take place in Sochi,
Russia (7-23 February and 7-16 March 2014).
•
In the past occasions, the involvement of the full consortium was limited in
terms of implementation/support of new modelling products.
•
As for Sochi-2014 Winter Olympics, Roshydromet is organizing a blended
RDP/FDP (Research and Development Project / Forecast Demonstration
Project) under the auspices of WMO: FROST-2014 (Forecasting and Research:
the Olympic Sochi Testbed)
•
A COSMO PP is needed in order to avoid duplication of work and to better
coordinate COSMO activities within this RDP/FDP.
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Some geography
Sochi (RU)
Rome (I)
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Link with FDPs and RDPs
FROST-2014
Forecast and Research
in the Olympic Sochi Testbed
Detlev!!!
Tiziana!!!
Andrea!!!
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
COSMO vs FROST-2014
COSMO will/could perform a number of activities related to FROST-2014:
a) deterministic forecasting (FDP/RDP initiatives),
b) probabilistic forecasting:
b1) FDP initiatives (“clone” of COSMO-LEPS over the Sochi area),
b2) RDP initiatives (development of a convection-scale COSMO LAM-EPS for
the Sochi area),
c) post-processing and product generation (FDP/RDP initiatives),
d) verification (FDP/RDP initiatives).
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
FDP (Forecast Demonstration Project) initiatives
SOCHMEL: SOCHi-targeted Mesoscale EnsembLe system
(“relocation” of COSMO-LEPS)
Horizontal resoluzion: 7 km.
Vertical resolution: 40 model levels.
Forecast range: 72 hours.
Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC.
Ensemble size: 10 members.
Boundary conditions: from selected ECMWF EPS members.
Initial conditions: interpolated from ECMWF EPS members.
Timetable
Pre-trial: 2011/12 winter
Trial: 2012/13 winter
Olympics: 2014 winter.
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
SOCHMEL suite @ ECMWF: present status
As for the future, apply for an ECMWF time-critical application
d
d+1
d+2
d+3
4 variables
ZUVQ
ECMWF EPS
3 levels
500 700 850 hPa
Cluster Analysis and RM identification
2
time
steps
Black-Sea
area
Complete
Linkage
•
•
•
SOCHMEL •
Integration •
Domain
Δx ~ 7 km; 40 ML; fc+72h;
initial time: 00UTC, 12UTC;
for the moment, computer time (10
million BU for 2012) provided by an
ECMWF Special Project;
suite managed by ARPA-SIMC;
contributions from ECMWF member
states could be needed in the
future.
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
RDP (Research and Development Project) initiatives
SOCHMEL28: convective-scale ensemble system
Horizontal resolution: 2.8 km.
Vertical resolution: 50 model levels.
Forecast range: 48 hours.
Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC.
Ensemble size: 5 members.
Boundary conditions: from SOCHMEL7 or from deterministic systems.
Initial conditions: from SOCHMEL7 or from deterministic systems.
Data assimilation: ???
Provision of wind-gust forecasts using different algorithms.
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Important ingredients for a successful ensemble
1.
Have a clear division between FDP and RDP activities / commitments.
2.
Develop experience with probabilities by local forecasters.
3.
Feedback on the top-priority products to be visualised.
4.
Snow analysis and soil field initialisation.
5.
Observations to assess the quality of the system in the development phase.
6.
Computer time (Special Project at ECMWF may not be enough).
7.
Timeliness in product delivery.
8.
…
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Doubts and open issues
Deterministic modelling:
• 1-km COSMO has never been tested in winter in the operational mode; what about
support from the model developers?
• Are there sufficient computer resources at RosHydroMet to run the 1-km model on a
reasonable-size domain (but what is the reasonable domain size for Sochi)?
• Downscaling from 7-km to 1 km can give rise to spin up problems at the early stage
of the forecast.
Ensemble modelling:
• Forecasters do not always like probabilities (at any scale!)
• End-users “hate” probabilities.
Verification:
• RosHydroMet can, most likely, provide the project partners with additional in-situ
observations not normally available on the GTS.
• Verification: methodology and observations (the same for all models!).
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Thank you !
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Outline
1)
Introduction to Sochi-2014:
a)
What is it?
b)
What has to do with COSMO?
2)
3)
COSMO ensemble activities within FROST-2014:
a)
introduction to SOCHMEL (the SOCHi-targeted Mesoscale EnsembLe
system);
b)
methodology;
c)
phases of development;
d)
planned activity.
Final remarks.
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
COSMO-LEPS (developed at ARPA-SIMC)
• What is it?
It is a Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS),
based on COSMO-model and implemented within COSMO
(COnsortium for Small-scale Modelling, including Germany,
Greece, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, Switzerland).
• Why?
It was developed to combine the advantages of global-model
ensembles with the high-resolution details gained by the
LAMs, so as to identify the possible occurrence of highimpact and localised weather events (heavy rainfall, strong
winds, temperature anomalies, snowfall, …)
 generation of COSMO-LEPS to improve the forecast of high-impact
weather in the short and early-medium range (up to fc+132h)
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014