Transcript Slide 1

Monitoring Food Security
Mario Zappacosta, FAO/GIEWS
3rd CRAM Workshop, Nairobi, September 26, 2011
FAO Global Information and
Early Warning System
• It was established in 1975 to monitor the
food supply and demand situation at
global, regional and country levels in order
to provide early warnings of impending
serious food shortages.
Main GIEWS activities
 Monitoring and analysing food security:
Food production/supply, utilization, import requirements and food aid
needs
• Information regularly monitored:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Rainfall and other weather-related variables
NDVIs
Input availability and prices
Prices of main food commodities
Trade (formal & cross border)
Policies with an impact on food security (e.g. trade restrictions,
safety nets, food voucher distributions, etc…)
– Access to markets
– Vulnerability analysis
– Macro-economic data
Main GIEWS activities
• Main sources of information
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Satellite images
National and regional meteorological data
Rainfall estimates
Regional EW& FS bulletins (FEWSNET, FSNAU, JRC, etc…)
National statistics
Government and UN reports on FS
Trade bulletins
FAO trade data by source/destination
FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Missions
National Vulnerability Assessments
Other Need Assessment reports
Newswire services
Main GIEWS activities
 Reporting:
Regular publications:
– Food Outlook (biannual)
– Crop Prospects & Food Situation (quarterly)
– Country Briefs (bimonthly)
– Global Price Monitor Bulletin (monthly)
– FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (monthly)
Other publications:
– FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Missions
– Special Alerts
Main GIEWS activities
 Other GIEWS products:
– Country Cereal Balance Sheets (CCBS)
– National and international food prices database
• GIEWS Food Price Data and Analysis Tools
– Interpolated Estimated Decadal Rainfall for Africa Countries
– Food trade database (by source/destination)
– Country Policy Monitoring database
Country Cereal Balance Sheets
Wheat, rice, maize, sorghum, millet, barley, oats, coarse grains and total cereals
ZIMBABWE
Item: MAIZE
Hem: South
MYr: Apr/Mar
Last Data Log:
1998.99
1999.00
2000.01
2001.02
2002.03
12 369
12 523
12 656
12 767
12 859
2003.04
2004.05
2005.06
2006.07
26/01/2009
2007.08
26/02/2009
Current
Forecast
2008.09
Next Year
2009.10
(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 000s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Population
TOTAL SUPPLY
Domestic Availability
Opening Stocks
Production
( J/J Imports)
Imports
Commercial Imports
Food Aid
TOTAL UTILIZATION
Domestic Utilization
Food Use
Feed Use
Other Uses
(J/J Exports)
Exports
Closing Stocks
of which Government
2 184
1 818
400
1 418
12 941
13 025
13 119 F
13 228 F
13 322 F
13 417 F
13 513
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 000 tons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1 931
2 641
2 004
2 082
1 855
1 850
1 760
1 230
1 996
1 265
1 785
1 353
847
520
300
310
350
300
400
200
200
930 F
1 686 G
915 G
1 485 G
953 G
647 F
320 F
2 028
1 810
290
1 520 F
2 313
2 308
200
2 108 F
2 224
1 892
425
1 467 F
2 005
899
400
499 F
366 F
366 F
366
0
218 F
218
218 F
0
5R
4C
0
4
331 R
333 C
318 F
14
1 106 I
1 106 C
764 G
343
701 I
701 C
340 G
361
645 I
645 C
530 F
115
739 I
739 C
686 G
53
297 I
297 C
235 G
62
503 I
503 C
380 F
122
1 003 I
1 003
764 C
239
1 240 I
1 240 C
740
500
2 184
1 844
1 350 B
354
140
2 028
1 828
1 378 B
350
100 F
2 313
1 888
1 388 B
350
150 F
2 224
1 824
1 378 B
370
76 F
2 005
1 705
1 405 B
250
50 F
1 931
1 621
1 421 B
150
50 F
2 641
2 291
2 091 B
150
50 F
2 004
1 704
1 479 B
150
75 F
2 082
1 682
1 464 B
150
68 F
1 855
1 655
1 485 B
120
50 F
1 850
1 650
1 480 B
100
70 F
1 760
1 660
1 490 B
100
70 F
50 F
50 F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
0F
290 F
50 F
200 F
50 F
425 F
100
400 F
2F
300 F
2F
310 F
2F
350 F
3F
300 F
2F
400 F
2F
200 F
2F
200 F
2F
100 F
2F
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/yr . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
PER CAP FOOD USE
PER CAP FEED USE
109.1
28.6
110.0
27.9
109.6
27.7
108.0
29.0
109.3
19.4
109.8
11.6
160.5
11.5
112.8
11.4
110.7
11.3
111.5
9.0
110.3
7.5
110.3
7.4
1 224 F
1 158
1 446 F
1 051
1 417 F
1 488
1 223 F
1 199
1 318 F
378
1 388 F
670
1 494 G
1 129
1 730 G
529
1 713 G
867
1 446 G
659
1 743
371
1 743
184
Auxiliary Data
Area (000 hectares)
Yield (kg/ha)
Cereal
Supply/Demand
Balances for
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Estimated Decadal Rainfall
Quantitative estimate of rainfall combining METEOSAT derived Cold Cloud Duration
imagery and data on observed rainfall (GTS-Global Telecommunication System by the
NOAA Climate Prediction Centre)
Source: NOAA/FEWSNET; FAO/NRCB-Agrometeorology Group
THANK YOU!
http://www.fao.org/giews