Transcript How will Idaho's Agricultural Producers Adapt to Changing

How will Idaho's Agricultural Producers Adapt to Changing Precipitation Patterns?
Evidence from an Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Model
LOGO
Gretchen L. Beebe, Graduate Student, Boise State University ([email protected])
Professor Kelly M. Coburn, Department of Economics, Boise State University ([email protected])
Professor Alejandro N.Flores,Department of Geosciences, Boise State University ([email protected])
The authors gratefully acknowledge support by the Idaho EPSCoR Program and the National Science Foundation under award EPS-0814387.
on
4. Crop Model
ange is expected to alter the timing, duration, and quantity of natural
n
Texas AgriLife Research and Extension Center’s EPIC model was used to simulate crop yields in response to the climate projection data
Each simulation was calibrated to fit historical yield values
Soil input reflects common soil parameter values for southwest Idaho
Planting and harvesting dates reflect average planting and harvesting dates in Idaho for each crop
Alfalfa harvested 4 times per year
Barley, Spring Wheat, Winter Wheat harvested one time per year
Other management practices (fertilizing, plowing, etc.) set to default and generated by EPIC program
We are not as concerned with the fine-tuning of our crop model as we are in piecing together the crop model and it’s economic impact, thus
producing an integrated hydro-economic model that reflects the adaptation of agricultural producers to changing conditions of risk over time
ures increase, precipitation becomes more variable and follows a decreasing trend
precipitation will impact the decisions made by agricultural
producer incentives to grow different crops and whether they will produce those crops
out irrigation
n the Western Snake River Basin in Idaho
Calibration of Generated Yield (for years 1973-2007) to Observed Yield (for all years available)
, Elmore Counties
s the top commodity produced in all three counties (growing dairy industry)
ain, barley and sugar-beets are also commonly produced
rier climate conditions in the three counties, only about 10% of the land harvested
is rain-fed
distribution of yield and revenue for field
own-scaled climate projection data from
ain-fed crops produced in the study region: Alfalfa,
eat, Winter Wheat
rrigated crops produced in the study region, compare
3. Climate Model
Climate projection data for the Snake River Basin made available to us
through the Idaho EPScoR office
Climate predictions made by adding a spatially corresponding
temperature factor to the observed monthly mean temperature
and by multiplying a spatially corresponding precipitation factor to
the observed monthly mean precipitation
Properties of Projected Climate Data for Ada County
ges in cropping choices over time based
eria
producers are risk-averse and they update their
bout a seasonal precipitation based on historical
th a moving average)
Figure 2.
e mean and variance of yield for crops and assess
tochastically dominate one another with
tions
ominance examines the trade-off between mean and
a higher mean may have a greater
growing that crop entails greater risk (and a greater
owing other crops
whether that mean-variance trade-off
ong the crops considered with changing precipitation
Figure 6.
Figure 5.
5.
Results
and
Conclusions
5.
Results
and
Conclusions
PICTURE PLACEHOLDER
PICTURE
PICTURE
In general yields and revenue/acre increased
PLACEHOLDER
PLACEHOLDER
Ambiguities may be due to variability taking
Figure 7.
Figure 8.
Figure 9-11.
PICTURE
PLACEHOLDER
PICTURE
PLACEHOLDER
effect until later in the time frame (after 2040)
Alfalfa becomes first-order stochastically dominant
over all other crops as time progresses in all three
counties
Although alfalfa shows the greatest variability and
therefore holds the most risk, it is the dominant crop
choice moving forward despite the inherent risk.
Figure 3.
PICTURE PLACEHOLtttDER
PICTURE PLACEHOLtttDER
PICTURE PLACEHOLtttDER
PICTURE PLACEHOLtttDER
PICTURE PLACEHOLDER
Figure 4.
ar, Impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins, Journal of the American
ociation, accepted under revision Dec 2010.
Jones, J.R. Kiniry and D.A. Spanel. 1989. The EPIC crop growth model. Trans ASAE 32(2):497-511
man, J.R. Williams, L. Francis, J. Greiner, M. Magre, A. Meinardus, and E. Steglich. 2006 Researcher's Guide: WinEPIC model,
d Research and Extension Center, Temple, Texas.
ng, P. Lu, J. Wang, J.W. Nielsen-Gammon, N. Smith, and C.J. Fernandez.2007. Integrated Agricultural Information and Management
Climatic Data. August 2007. http://beaumont.tamu/edu/ClimaticData/
, and J. Wang. 2010. Development of an Automated Climatic Data Scraping, Filtering and Display System. Computers and
ure 71:77-87. http://beaumont.tamu.edu/ClimaticData/
6. Future Work
Examine alfalfa, barley, spring wheat and winter wheat under irrigated conditions, compare with rain-fed crop models
Consider more crops common to southwestern Idaho and more counties within the Snake River Plain
Take farmer’s decisions on crop choice and whether crops should be irrigated or rain-fed as input
into the model
 Update the model after
each harvest
with the farmer’s new input for the next growing season
PICTURE
PLACEHOLDER